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World Cup chat and bets


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10 days to go! Thought we should have a dedicated thread for the upcoming tournament. Curious to see what bets you guys have placed and will place.

It can come as no surprise that I've bet on Denmark to win the tournament. I'm also considering just putting a little bet on Skov Olsen to be the top goalscorer of the tournament 😄  he's been on fire for the national team this year and I think he'll get a good number of minutes. It'll depend on how Lindstrøm, Damsgaard and Skov Olsen are used together with the strikers Braithwaite, Cornelius, Wind and Dolberg. Also still 5 spots free in the squad and sure we'll see one more winger (Poulsen almost certain imo). I'd love to see a lineup like the below, but probably not an option for this tournament, considering it'd be too "new":

Schmeichel

Kristensen (Leeds) - Christensen (Barcelona) - Kjær (AC Milan) - Andersen (Crystal Palace) - Mæhle (Atalanta)

Delaney (Sevilla) - Højbjerg (Tottenham)

Eriksen (United)

Skov Olsen (Brugge) - Lindstrøm (Frankfurt) - Damsgaard (Brentford) 

Depend on the shape of Damsgaard, starting with Lindstrøm on the left wing might be better (and then Dolberg, Brathwaite or Cornelius in the centre). One hell of team! 
Delaney the weak link imo but Nørgaard probably not fit to start and Jensen not better. With Billing playing really well for Bournemouth this season, he would be an interesting addition to the squad, especially if Nørgaard isn't fit enough. 

image.png.4eea63c294c7e80b48e1a005fa1fe74c.png

 

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Hard to bet. The european top teams are not in a good form. 

France has a lot of injuried players (especially on midfield) and despite their very strong squad their performance is disappointing.

England reached the  EC final, but I can't say anything good about the team. Bad to see their football.

Germany has a good coach but they dont'have a worldclass striker.

Italy not qualified.

Spain's team is too young and inexperienced on this level.

Belgium has a good starting eleven, but injuries and tiredness can be a problem as their bench is not so strong.

Portugal and Netherlands are not bad, but I don't think they have a chance to win it.

I think the two south american giants (Brazil and Argentina) now  have a good chance to wint the WC.

I cheers for Brazil and Netherlands and for the "outsiders" who play attractive and good football (like Denmark did it on the EC)

Good luck for all teams! Hungary will be the World Champion in 2026, so those who don't want to wait 8 years for another chance should do their best now!😀

 

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Prediction 😄 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022-predictor-wallchart-football-qatar/

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Might be giving Netherlands too much credit here with wins against both Argentina and Brazil. I think it's pretty much a cointoss in both of these. Group H and group E should be really fun and I think we might see some big surprises there (not what I put as prediction here though).

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3 hours ago, Kamon said:

Hard to bet. The european top teams are not in a good form. 

France has a lot of injuried players (especially on midfield) and despite their very strong squad their performance is disappointing.

England reached the  EC final, but I can't say anything good about the team. Bad to see their football.

Germany has a good coach but they dont'have a worldclass striker.

Italy not qualified.

Spain's team is too young and inexperienced on this level.

Belgium has a good starting eleven, but injuries and tiredness can be a problem as their bench is not so strong.

Portugal and Netherlands are not bad, but I don't think they have a chance to win it.

I think the two south american giants (Brazil and Argentina) now  have a good chance to wint the WC.

I cheers for Brazil and Netherlands and for the "outsiders" who play attractive and good football (like Denmark did it on the EC)

Good luck for all teams! Hungary will be the World Champion in 2026, so those who don't want to wait 8 years for another chance should do their best now!😀

 

Agree with most of this, but I think Netherlands and Belgium got a pretty okay chance. Main issue for Brazil, Argentina and Netherlands is that they'll end up against each other before the final, if they all win their group. I think it's quite likely we'll see one half of the KO round being significantly stronger than the other (as per above).

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For now im thinking Argentina for top3 for 2,85. There is big pressure/expectation for Messi to go deep. To the point im pretty sure Argentina will have referees on their side. Sue me 🤓 but it is really my conviciton for now. Push will be against weaker sides, early in the tournaments. Soft pens with Mexico/Poland/with S.Arabia if they will hold like Iran last time. I predict scandalous officiating against Denmark in r16. Most likely the referee will be that gentleman from Africa that ended the game at 85min 😆🤣Denmark will play better but they will get red/pen against. I think its very important for FIFA and Qatar for Arg to reach semi final. 

European teams without form, France is the strongest but this year results are not optimistic and Deschamp seem very confused how to play. Still if Benzema pull his magic semi final is a big possibility. If Germany advance to quarters [big if though] i pick them any time anywhere against Brasil. Brasil will never get over that 7:1 not with this generation of players at least. But there will be some some/a lot of surprises. Dont really know where. Feel like England could either face early exit or go to semis playing shambolic football. Same with Germans, Holland even France. It could be weird tournament like in South Africa/Korea.

Denmark is interesting dark horse but i was hoping Daamsgard would be a hausehold name by now. Eriksen, Kjaer are two years older than in Euro and playing Vestergaard brings me nightmares 🤧 I remember i was counting hard on Denmark in South Africa and boy what a disappointment that was 😩 I think that squad was really good [Eriksen used only as a sub 🤣] but Holland and Japan was too strong and the play was really terrible 😬 

 

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7 hours ago, jerry said:

Denmark is interesting dark horse but i was hoping Daamsgard would be a hausehold name by now. Eriksen, Kjaer are two years older than in Euro and playing Vestergaard brings me nightmares 🤧 I remember i was counting hard on Denmark in South Africa and boy what a disappointment that was 😩 I think that squad was really good [Eriksen used only as a sub 🤣] but Holland and Japan was too strong and the play was really terrible 😬 

Vestergaard not in the squad yet 😉

Back 3 will be Kjær, Christensen and Andersen. Nelsson as the primary backup but Kristensen could also play the CB if need be. Vestergaard likely to get one of the last 5 spots in the squad, but I doubt he'll get much time on the pitch. 

Damsgaard indeed hasn't had the best preparation for this one so I'm unsure whether he'll even start. Skov Olsen and Lindstrøm probably the most likely on the wings. Damsgaard has always been amazing for the national team though, so who knows. 

Eriksen and Kjær are like fine wine 😉

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7 hours ago, jerry said:

Deschamp seem very confused how to play.

Big mistake not to kick him out already after Euros and now they pay the price.

Portugal will be epic fail too imo. Group is so easy that they will most likely to get to second phase but i don't see them to get further. As a team they really haven't been in top form and neither have their best players. On top of that there is Ronaldo who still has ego but not skills to justify it anymore, expecting lot of bitching to kill team spirit once and for all 😄

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Used one of freebies for stub bet. Not because i have any trust that it will happen but to ease the pain of reading all the bragging posts just in case football world has gone insane too. Few euros gained always helps with disappointments 😄

Screenshot_2022-11-14-18-13-07-074.thumb.jpeg.5b97cac884608abcdea5dc64e0cefbe5.jpeg

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On 11/12/2022 at 4:30 PM, Stubbe-Unibet said:

Screenshot_2022-11-12-15-26-37-56_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.thumb.jpg.2e5764d05c0eeb03e752c89d5aa0c573.jpg

 

10 minutes ago, Livertool said:

Used one of freebies for stub bet. Not because i have any trust that it will happen but to ease the pain of reading all the bragging posts just in case football world has gone insane too. Few euros gained always helps with disappointments 😄

Screenshot_2022-11-14-18-13-07-074.thumb.jpeg.5b97cac884608abcdea5dc64e0cefbe5.jpeg

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19 minutes ago, Livertool said:

Used one of freebies for stub bet. Not because i have any trust that it will happen but to ease the pain of reading all the bragging posts just in case football world has gone insane too. Few euros gained always helps with disappointments 😄

Screenshot_2022-11-14-18-13-07-074.thumb.jpeg.5b97cac884608abcdea5dc64e0cefbe5.jpeg

Wise choice! 😄 

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With freebet i went for Messi's top scorer for 14 odd. Being him in top 4 of scorers for 3 odd is a bit easier but i went for full payload 😆 They starting with Saudi Arabia. While they are not the weakest team in the world they certainly not world beaters. I argue two/three goals are possibility, even more that its first match and Argentina will definitely try to start strong. Then Mexico, team with a bit suspect defensive. They can score against Argentina but more so they will allow some. Then my country, Poland. Same story, very bad defensive, with some power up front. We can score one, but will leak more than one. So, yeah on paper there should be some goals in the group and Messi can easily have 4/5 goals after this period. I think even 5 goals can be enough for whole tournament! Martinez can steal some goals but it will be Messi who will take pens, and i think Argentina will have at least 2/3 in the tournament. 

I also like De Bruyne for top scorer for 126 odd. Its mainly valuebet but i think there is significant chance he will end up with 5-6 goals.

I dont know how Unibet is paying when two ore more players end up top scorer. If remember right some years ago in Euro i had one of the 4 top scorers [maybe was it Mario Gomez] and Unibet didnt pay. Maybe someone know? 

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1 hour ago, jerry said:

I dont know how Unibet is paying when two ore more players end up top scorer

"If two or more Participants share the applicable finishing positions and no odds have been offered for a drawn outcome, the payout will be calculated by dividing the odds by the number of participants sharing those certain positions and are settled accordingly."

 

So basically if in your case Messi shares the top scorer place with 2 others, your odds on the bet will be 14/3 = 4,67

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27 minutes ago, Evarb said:

Am i missing some promotion where did you get that freebets from? @jerry@Purps

Promo during the weekend for polish market. Bet 100zl [20e] get two 50zl freebets. One freebet expired at the end of the weekend, second at the start of world cup.

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1 minute ago, jerry said:

Promo during the weekend for polish market. Bet 100zl [20e] get two 50zl freebets. One freebet expired at the end of the weekend, second at the start of world cup.

Same here in UK but in ££££££.

"How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"

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4 hours ago, jerry said:

I dont know how Unibet is paying when two ore more players end up top scorer. If remember right some years ago in Euro i had one of the 4 top scorers [maybe was it Mario Gomez] and Unibet didnt pay. Maybe someone know?

You must have bet on golden Boot. Golden Boot there's no draw as fifa rules are used to determine winner. 

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   Just to kick off my WC betting I've looked at the groups. How often do all eight favourites top their group? 🤔 A touch over 33.00 this time, seems like a long shot to me. 

   How about qualifying only,  first or second in the group. A little under 4.00, but isn't there always a shock or two? so I've gone for four group favourites to qualify when 2nd and 3rd are close in the betting, and four second favourites where they are still clear of the third favourite. Not a massive difference actually but it's a start. 

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   Wouldn't it be something if Messi won the Golden Boot and Argentina won the World Cup. As I'm notoriously bad at betting I've saved hours and hours of analysis, (I think there are decent cases to be made for a few teams, but each has some worrying negatives )and gone purely for the story and drama aspect. On this I could have sided with Denmark and Ericsson featuring heavily, not unreasonably so, but I'm going for Messi and Argentina, both fair odds. I actually think Messi is value, but who knows?

 

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   I intend to watch every match, or at least have them on in the background, and I think it's wide open this time around, really wanting some entertainment in these gloomy days.

Good Luck all. 

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"How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"

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40 minutes ago, GR1ZZL3R said:

How often do all eight favourites top their group?

Dunno if there is subs for this but if there is here is some tips from dude that has earned his living and then some with bets. 

https://fi.unibet.com/uutiset/hetkinen-tv/jorma-vuoksenmaa/vuoksenmaa-heikela-–-jalkapallon-mm-kisat-2022-vedonlyontiennakko-osat-1–2-1.2167207

Answer to question, over 70% change that all favs don't even make it to next stage.

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