BonusPater Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 And a bet for tomorrow:Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen - Both teams to score: No - Odds 2.23 :cash: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psrquack Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 No goals for Schalke again? Are you a member of the sucide squad?:haha: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 @psrquack wrote:No goals for Schalke again? Are you a member of the sucide squad?:haha:haha, I don't think Leverkusen will score, but Schalke could fail as well, even though it's less likely ;)I'd go with 1-0 or 2-0, if I should pick a score :) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexandraIoana Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 0-0 min 83, thanks for sharing your bet 😃 made a little profit here :popeye:👍:cash: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betser Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 WTG Winners never quit and quitters never win -Vince Lombardi- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 @AlexandraIoana wrote:0-0 min 83, thanks for sharing your bet @testuser1 😃 made a little profit here :popeye:👍:cash:You're welcome :)Hope you managed to put a bit of money of Frankfurt for next week as well. Odds now down to 3.0 :)Result so far:73 bets placed, 69 of them settled and 26 won+11.6 unitsROI of 19.3Looking fantastic with all the season bets. Not that unlikely we'll win on them all and secure an 18 unit profit! :) I might have a few more for you during the vinter break, depending on how many specials our traders will put on the site :) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 I've put two units on this season bet:HTH between Dortmund and RB Leipzig - Dortmund to finish highest in the table - odds 2.60 :cash::cash::cash::cash: Updated Excel doc: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 Schalke 04 vs Freiburg - AG: Avdijaj - Odds 3 :cash:As Huntelaar, Embolo, di Santo and Choupo-Moting are all out with injuries, Kono or Avdijaj are the most likely starters in the attack for Schalke, next to Meyer. Personally I think (and hope) that Avdijaj will get the chance from start, and if he doesn't, the bet will be voided. There's not exactly a lot of relevant data to back this bet up, as he's only played one minute in the Bundesliga (has been injured until recently). This bet is mostly based on a gut feeling and his great game against Salzburg last week - in my opinion he was Schalke's best man in that game. Not exactly one of the bets I'm very confident about, but I do believe there's a tiny bit of value. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanus Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 @testuser1this is the type of bet that you really need that lucky feelingI think i will throw some money on it tomorrow :DGood luck! :D 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 Unibet just increased the odds on Hertha to win against Leipzig so that it's now 6.40. Even though there's a chance the odds might increase slightly more (it opened at 5.50), I'm going to place the bet now. Unibet currently have the highest odds on the market (at least among the bookmakers I usually use).RB Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin - 1X2: 2 - Odds 6.40 :cash: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just a quick recap. Have 3 bets this round:RB Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin - 1X2: 2 - Odds 6.40 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.pngSchalke 04 vs Freiburg - AG: Avdijaj - Odds 3 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.pngWolfsburg vs Eintrach Frankfurt - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.40 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.pngDonis Avdijaj is down to 2.90, Hertha 5.50 and Frankfurt 2.90. In other words: there's no longer any value in the bets, which is always a good sign :)This might be my last post in the thread this year, as I'm travelling to Denmark in the evening and will be off till the 30th. I'll maybe post a few more bets later today or tomorrow, but don't count on it :)I had expected a ROI between 5 and 8, based on my previous results, so I'm obviously extremely happy with the current ROI of 19.9 (you might wonder how it suddenly increased from 19.3 to 19.9 without further bets being settled, but that's simply because I had forgotten to remove the stake for some of the voided bets where the players didn't start - only if the money is actually in play, the stake for voided bets should be included in the ROI calculation). I've made a € 100 bet with @MarcoV that I will manage a ROI of 28+ when the season is over (need to place a minimum of 130 bets). It sounds ridiculously high, but the 3 units on Aubameyang to be the TGS at odds 9 makes it very likely in my opinion. New official goal for the blog is a ROI of 35, when the season is over! Equally important I also want to add more content to the blog, as I've really failed at that the last 10 rounds or so. When the Bundesliga is back in January, I think I'll try with some videos instead of written analysis. What do you guys think about that? Do you prefer a video or written analysis? NB yesterday I was considering a draw, both teams to score and Wagner to score, but the odds on Unibet weren't that good on these outcomes :( 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyR23 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Either way it's fine Stubbe just keep up the great work 👍 :cash: //as a member that followed your picks even just writing the match and your bet for the game would be enough and this would save you lots of time to do other things...Still, if you have time to spare in 2017, would be nice to mixed it up a little bit and your Bundesliga Corner to be special on the community, also the new generation likes more to watch things than read, so more videos and less written analysis actually might be better 🤣 1 You cannot have a positive life and a negative mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 Interesting lineup for Schalke. Avdijaj on the bench, so that bet is voided, and Reese getting the chance from start :)Das ist unsere Start-11 für das Match gegen den @scfreiburg . AUF GEHT'S, #SCHALKE, KÄMPFEN UND SIEGEN. #S04SCF pic.twitter.com/a9lri2nx4t— FC Schalke 04 (@s04) December 17, 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen - 1X2: 1 - Odds 3.00 :cash: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 FC Ingolstadt vs SC Freiburg - 1X2: 1 - Odds 2.35 :cash: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 Not the best weekend, but with these high odds, it's really what you can expect once in a while. -2 units is not that bad, and I'm sure we'll be back on track in the last round of the year, or at least beginning of next year. Gotta get back to my vacation now :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 Borussia Dortmund vs Augsburg - Götze Not To Score - Odds 1.48 :cash::cash::cash:Bayern Münich vs RB Leipzig - Lewandowski Not To Score - Odds 1.9 :cash: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
startelver Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 @Stubbe-Unibet wrote: Borussia Dortmund vs Augsburg - Götze Not To Score - Odds 1.48 :cash::cash::cash:Bayern Münich vs RB Leipzig - Lewandowski Not To Score - Odds 1.9 :cash:Can I ask you why do you think they will not score? Mario Götze scored in the last game and seem to be doing ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cris1285 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 He is looking for value. These odds are bigger than he expected.Götze doesnt score much, so thats odds is ok, but i like much more the Lewandowski tip. I watched Leipzig-Hertha on the weekend, and these guys not just promoting, but drinking the Red Bull for sure. Or maybe they drink blood, because they really play well. Bayern is struggling a little bit, many times they score only 1 or 2 goals. So 1.9 is a great odds for Lewa not to score. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
startelver Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Yes he seem to not score as much as expected so in that case its value, thanks. Augsburg is good in defense I believe so maybe Dortmund will win with only 1 or 2 goals. Last season it ended 5-1 but will not happen again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 @startelver, as @cris1285 says, I simply believe the chance of them not scoring is slightly higher than what's reflected in the odds. I'm writing from my mobile, so I won't go much into detail, but let's take the Götze bet as an example. He played a decent game against Hoffenheim, but didn't really impress in any way, and his stats simply don't justify the low odds on him to score/high odds on not to score. Below what I wrote in connection with a previous bet on him not to score. His stats haven't changed much since. He's had 4 shots (FOUR SHOTS) on goal in 649 minutes... That's one shot every 162 minutes = he roughly has one shot on goal every second game. Let's compare to another player. There's the same odds on Ramos to score (2.45). Ramos has played 355 minutes, had 12 shots and scored 2 = one shot every 29.5 minutes (remember Götze was one shot every 162 minutes).Götze not to score, bet value 107.2. The odds on Götze to score just don't make any sense, and it's been like this the entire season. The average odds on Götze to score today is around 2.45, so the bookmakers give him like a 33-35 % chance of scoring (low payback on this type of bet). If you look at all three seasons he played in Bayern, he did indeed score 22 goals in 73 games, which gives him approx. 30 % chance of scoring/70 % not to score. Actually he only score in 17 of the 73 games (he scored two in some), so based on this, his chance of scoring is more like 23 %. Then keep in mind that in his last season, the goals he scored were against opponens as HSV (8-0!!), Hoffenheim (4-0), Werder (6-0!), Köln (2-0), Paderborn (4-0) and Stuttgart (2-0). As mentioned earlier in this post, Schalke have been fairly strong defensively in recent games, so they shouldn't be compared to opponents like this. This should move another few percent, so we're at 20 % or so for him to score = 80 % not to score. This is without keeping in mind that he has played 302 minutes (5 games) and only had TWO, I say again TWO shots on goal. Assuming he plays all 90 minutes, he's only got a 30 % chance of actually getting a shot on goal - not sure he'll get all 90 minutes. He has had 11 passes that led to a shot, but still 0 assists this season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 20, 2016 Author Share Posted December 20, 2016 Ingolstadt down to 2.15 and Köln now 2.90 = not worth a bet at this point.Götze NTS is 1.46 which still has great value! Lewandowski NTS has increased a little (should have expected this would happen, when the public money starts to have an effect) to 1.93! :) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
startelver Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 @Stubbe-Unibet wrote: Götze NTS is 1.46 which still has great value! Lewandowski NTS has increased a little (should have expected this would happen, when the public money starts to have an effect) to 1.93! :) That one was easy ! I should have bet more on Gotze . Now I am not so sure about Lewandowski not scoring but I guess it's worth a few euros . :Smile: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 21, 2016 Author Share Posted December 21, 2016 RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt - 1X2: 2 - Odds 5.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 Worst possible end to the year, but a bad streak had to come at some point, especially when playing these high odds. The marginals are just not on our side at the moment :(Still very happy with the result, and I'm sure we'll turn things around in the new year :)I've got one more season bet (two units):Wolfsburg vs Mönchengladbach - Best finishing position: Wolfsburg - Odds 1.75 :cash::cash: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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