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Stubbe's Bundesliga Corner


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833031624_2015-11-2620_12_13.jpg.7867f853900f5ea6161838f554157dfe.jpgIt all started back in the 2000/2001 season, when the Danish forward Ebbe Sand had a fantastic season at Schalke 04. My interest was aroused; I read a lot about Schalke and the Bundesliga, and I started watching a lot of games as well. It didn't take long, before I was hooked - I had become a Bundesliga junkie. In the years to come, I'd spend countless hours in front of the tv and computer, watching and analyzing games, reading Bundesliga news etc. The number of Schalke matches I've missed in the last 2 years, can be counted on one hand, and I've obviously been to Gelsenkirchen a few times as well.

About 5-6 years ago I started betting on the Bundesliga. I got off to a less than optimal start, but I learned a lot and my game slowly improved. A few years later I had my own Bundesliga betting blog with a ROI of +10, and I was also a Bundesliga expert at the largest Danish betting community for a short while.

When I started working for Unibet, I didn't feel like I had the time to bet seriously anymore, and for almost a year, I didn't place a single bet. Today I'm only betting for the entertainment, but I like to believe, that I've still got the ability to spot a bet with value. I'm going to challenge myself, and will post a few Bundesliga bets every week, with the goal of creating a small profit. I'll keep score of the bets in this post.

As there's quite a long time till the next Bundesliga game, I'll temporarily be using this thread to share my view on transfers, season bets and anything Bundesliga, that I find interesting.

EDIT: now that we've got the new emoticons implemented, I'll start using a money bag scale to indicate the value. This info will be added to the heading of each bet.

:cash: = 100-103.9 BV
:cash::cash: = 104-106.9 BV
:cash::cash::cash: = 107-109.9 BV
:cash::cash::cash::cash:= 110-112.9
:cash::cash::cash::cash::cash: = >112.9

An Excel sheet with all bets can be found here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/03gzxjg595t8ybd/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx?dl=0

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  • 2 weeks later...

I am a little curious as part of the unibet company what are the restreictions for you when it comes to betting and such? If i may ask how did you get in to this business in the first place!

Other than  that i am very much looking forward to your bundelsiga tips as that is not a league that i have much knowledge in.

If we do not try and attain more knowledge we may as well be dead! 

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@chrishengren wrote:

I am a little curious as part of the unibet company what are the restreictions for you when it comes to betting and such? If i may ask how did you get in to this business in the first place!

Other than  that i am very much looking forward to your bundelsiga tips as that is not a league that i have much knowledge in.

If we do not try and attain more knowledge we may as well be dead! 


We're obviously not allowed to bet with Unibet for real money, but we can bet with the competitors :)

From https://www.unibetcommunity.com/t5/Welcome-how-to-s/Meet-the-Community-Team/m-p/2277 :

The day I turned 18, I opened an account with several bookmakers, Unibet obviously being one of them, and I've been playing ever since. For some time I had my own blog with Bundesliga picks, and I was a Bundesliga expert at the largest Danish betting community as well. When I was done with upper secondary school, I wanted to move abroad, and a move to the land of bookmakers, Malta, made perfect sense. I moved to Malta to work in Customer Support for Unibet, and 8-9 months later I moved on to work with data and service improvements in the same department. I've also worked as a Customer Experience Analyst in London - also for Unibet - and now I'm the Customer Community Manager. Before joining Unibet, I was self-employed, primarily working with project management.

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I figured as much that you were restricted from betting with unibet but interesting that they allow bets for the competitiors :) take their money instead :D. Really interesting story man and i hope to be able to use your bundesliga knowledger even though its coming from a dane and we swedes dont trust danes too much!!

How about euro2016 u going to be doing bets for that ?

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@chrishengren wrote:

I figured as much that you were restricted from betting with unibet but interesting that they allow bets for the competitiors :) take their money instead :D. Really interesting story man and i hope to be able to use your bundesliga knowledger even though its coming from a dane and we swedes dont trust danes too much!!

How about euro2016 u going to be doing bets for that ?


Haha, well, the trust thing is mutual :smileytongue:

I might do a few bets during the championship. Will check out all of our markets tomorrow - I haven't had much time to look at this, with the community launch taking up pretty much all my time :)

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  • 2 months later...

We're getting close - just 16 days and we'll be blessed with the great weekly Bundesliga games once again!

I've had a look at the season bets and found a couple which I believe there's a bit of value in. I'll probably add a few more in the coming days.

To score the most goals in the Bundesliga for Schalke: Choupo-Moting

Choupo is not exactly known as a consistent player, and last season we saw both several excellent and horrible games from him. When he's at his best, he's a joy to watch, and I expect this season to be his best ever. He has had a fantastic pre-season so far, being the, by far, best Schalke player on the opponents part of the pitch - he had a great finish to last season as well, with 3 goals in the last 4 Bundesliga games. If he continue in this form, we'll surely see quite a few goals from him.
In the past years, Choupo has roughly scored about 9 goals per season, in the Bundesliga. Huntelaar is at around 11 goals and Embolo has scored 20 goals in total, in the past two seasons for Basel. 

I expect Weinzierl will either continue with the 4-2-3-1 formation or play with three center backs (Höwedes, Naldo & Nastasic) in a 5-2-2-1 formation. In either case, there's only room for one "Mittelstürmer" (striker), and Di Santo, Huntelaar and Embolo will all fight for this position - Embolo will probably end up playing as a winger most of the time, if Weinzierl decides not to play with two strikers. Schöpf, Sam and Choupo are the only "real" wingers in the current squad, and Choupo being the strongest, I expect he'll get a lot of time on the pitch this season - Sam will probably be injured for half the season, like in past years. 

The arrival of Baba (on loan from Chelsea) is not at all bad for this bet either. Baba and Choupo will make up a very strong left side (at least when attacking). I think Kolasinac will be the preferred choice in a 4-2-3-1 formation and Baba in a 5-2-2-1 formation.

I estimate the chance of winning to be around 21 %, giving a very decent bet value of 115.5

Choupo.png.b4e80107c307f0201f7e70c5606e14aa.png

To finish best in the North: HSV

The second bet is on which team will have the best finishing position in the North. Wolfsburg are, rightfully so, big favorites, but I do think HSV stand a better chance than what's currently reflected in the odds. Last season, "Die Wölfe" and "Der Dino" were separated by just 4 points, finishing 8th and 10th respectively (both teams got 19 points in the 2nd half of the tournament).

With the signing of Kostic and Halilovic, the HSV offensive is a force to be reckoned with, and I expect Der Dino to perform slightly better than last season.

Wolfsburg have let go of Schürrle, Kruse and Naldo, and they've signed Gerhardt, Bruma, Kuba and Divida. The strength of the squad is, in my opinion, about the same as last season, but things might change in the coming weeks, of course.
It's also worth noting that Vierinha will be out for around six weeks, and Draxler is not exactly thrilled about having to spend at least another year at Volkswagen Arena.

I don't expect much of Werder Bremen this season, and would be surprised, if they managed to make it into top 10. 

Chance of finishing "Best in North":
Wolfsburg: 69 %
HSV: 19 %
Werder Bremen: 12 %

Bet value = 104.5

587966588_bestinnorth.png.3180ad2d04430156e69256cfd575d761.png

 

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Few months ago i would pick Bayern to title with all my savings, but after the reinforcements Dortmund made and the Supercup it could be (should be) two horse race to the finish. I mean if Dortmund will be able to balance the squad between all competitions with the depth they have they could go for title. With Hummels Dortmund would be favorite IMO, without him is a question how the defence will cope. Bartra is ok but nowhere near Hummels and prone to youth mistakes. Mkhitaryan and Gundogan will be easily forgotten as Mkhi is simply overrated and Gundogan after the injury is not the same footballer (his career will be similar to Sahin trust me).

With the addition of some top defender (Toprak maybe), Borussia would be my pick for the title :), still without the signing of another defender Borussia can win the title for odds about 8.00. And there is odd of around 1.50 to Dortmund be first (with exception of Bayern) IMO this is pretty sure investment, the rest of the teams sold their best players and are nowhere near as consistent as Dortmund. 

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@jerry wrote:

Few months ago i would pick Bayern to title with all my savings, but after the reinforcements Dortmund made and the Supercup it could be (should be) two horse race to the finish. I mean if Dortmund will be able to balance the squad between all competitions with the depth they have they could go for title. With Hummels Dortmund would be favorite IMO, without him is a question how the defence will cope. Bartra is ok but nowhere near Hummels and prone to youth mistakes. Mkhitaryan and Gundogan will be easily forgotten as Mkhi is simply overrated and Gundogan after the injury is not the same footballer (his career will be similar to Sahin trust me).

With the addition of some top defender (Toprak maybe), Borussia would be my pick for the title :), still without the signing of another defender Borussia can win the title for odds about 8.00. And there is odd of around 1.50 to Dortmund be first (with exception of Bayern) IMO this is pretty sure investment, the rest of the teams sold their best players and are nowhere near as consistent as Dortmund. 


I think it's difficult to draw any conclusions based on a super cup match, but I do think that:

1. Dortmund looked really good

2. There's certainly no value in Bayern to win the title

3. Odds 8 on Dortmund is very interesting (Unibet currently offer odds 7)

I haven't seen the 1.5 on Dortmund to finish 1st or 2nd, but it is certainly an interesting odds, even though I do expect a good season from both Leverkusen and Schalke. You can get 1.3 on Dortmund H2H with Leverkusen (1.27 on Unibet). I doubt it'll happen, but if Dortmund to be the highest scoring team increase to 2.00, I see okay value in this bet.

Now that we're talking Dortmund, Unibet currently got odds 9 on Aubameyang to be the top goalscorer in the Bundesliga, which is the highest on the market, and the average for the rest of the market is just around 6. This will be the last season bet I recommend in this thread - sorry there's no written analysis for this one, might add it later this week, if I can find some time for it. As a last comment, I can add that Dortmund are favorites to score the most goals this season (Dortmund 1.90, Bayern 2.15).

The three season bets for this year's Bundesliga:

1. Aubameyang to be the top goalscorer - odds 9.0 (value = 117). 3 units

2. To score the most goals in the Bundesliga for Schalke: Choupo-Moting - odds 5.5 (value = 115.5). 3 units

3. To finish best in the North: HSV - odds 5.5 (value = 104.5). 1 unit

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Aubameyang now slashed to 6.5 and you should not put any money on it. Odds on the two other bets remain unchanged, and the chance of winning is unchanged for the Choupo bet and slightly lower (insignificant) for the HSV bet. Will be interesting to see which two players Schalke sign this week - or if they even manage to sign two.

Below a bet for those of you who like a high odds. This is not a value bet, and it wont be included in my score for this thread - it's just for the entertainment, as the Bundesliga isn't starting before next Friday :)
The bet is a 6 of 8, which basically means that you'll still win, even if two of the outcomes aren't correct (obviously not as much as if they're all correct). You're placing 28 sixfolds and the potential payout is 15562 with a stake of 1 per sixfold (so total stake is 28).

Capture.thumb.PNG.36579709bbb180d12e71134f177476c7.PNG

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Result so far:
No bets settled.

Bayern München vs Werder Bremen - Bayern AH -3 - odds 2.48

This is an Asian Handicap bet on Bayern München. If Bayern win with 4 or more, the bet is won, if Bayern win with 3, the bet is voided and if Bayern lose, draw or win with two or less, the bet is lost. 

The title favorites from the south against the relegation contenders from the north. The fans of "Die Grün-Weißen" surely look back at the 2003-2004 season with longing. Just 10 years ago, the team from Bremen was the main title contenders along with Bayern. Today they're merely considered a mediocre team by Bundesliga standards, and they're expected to finish in the bottom half of the table this season. 
Bayern is hated and loved for the dominance in recent years (among other things) and the bookmakers estimate their chance of winning this season to be almost 90 %!
This is David against Goliath, and I don't think the outcome will be close to that of the Books of Samuel. It's not a question of whether Bayern will win, it's a question of how much they'll win.

This is a good bet because

  • Bremen have had a bad pre-season and Sunday they lost 2-1 in the German Cup against Sportfreunde Lotte. The name sounds familiar? Probably not; they played Regionalliga last season and are playing in the 3rd best division this season. Defensively Bremen has looked weak, and it's honestly difficult to predict who'll be in the starting 11, as no one really has impressed.
  • Not only did Bremen lose the game against a 3rd division team, Max Kruse also got seriously injured. Kruse came from Wolfsburg this season and was supposed to form a goal scoring duo with Pizarro. Speaking of Pizarro; the Peruvian probably wont be ready for the Bayern game either.
  • In Bayern's 17 home games last season, 6 of them was won with a goal margin of 4 or more and 2 were won with a goal margin of 3. In the home game against Werder (March) they won 5-0 - they also met in the German Cup a month later, where Bayern won 2-0.
  • Last season Bayern managed an impressive 18.4 shots per game and 80 goals (2.35 per game, 3 per home game).
  • Bayern have had a decent pre-season and a good start to the season. First they won 2-0 against Dortmund in the Super Cup (the result does not reflect how good Dortmund actually played in this game - hurts a little to write those words) and Friday they won 0-5 against Carl Zeiss Jenna. Lewandowski scored the first three goals of the game. 

You might loose the bet because

  • Of Bremen's 9 lost away games last season, 5 of them were with a goal margin of 1, and just 3 were with a goal margin of 3 or more. On average, Bremen conceded 1.91 goals per match, 2.06 in away games.
  • Bayern are without Coman and Robben. On a more positive note both Alonso and Thiago will be ready for the game this Friday
  • Bayern without Boateng is a much weaker Bayern - in my opinion he's currently the best CD in the world.
  • Despite the good result against Dortmund in the Super Cup, Ancelotti's troops were not at all convincing.

Expected lineups and team news

Bayern
817208252_BayernagainstWerder.PNG.700a4897de0ede97959687e75de5fc99.PNGNotable injuries: Boateng, Costa, Robben, Coman, Badstuber

Werder Bremen

922368248_WerderagainstBayern.PNG.c4d1134d0d2f316905fdfd9f91a3148d.PNG

  Notable injuries: Kruse, Pizarro, Bargfrede

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
I estimate the chance of winning the bet to be around 42 %, giving a bet value of 104.2. Recommend 1 unit on this bet.

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@cris1285 wrote:

Good pick. But how you count that 42% chance? 


Good question :)

It very much depends on the bet type. There's a big difference between estimating the chance for a special bet and e.g. 1X2 or an Asian Handicap. In this case I actually made a mistake when writing there's a 42 % chance of winning - I'd been writing multiple pieces of analysis for more than 2.5 hours straight, so my head was a bit heavy at the time. When it's an asian handicap with a chance of the bet being voided, you obviously have to include this in the bet value calculation. You simply take the percentage chance of a draw (e.g. 5 %) and add it as percentage points to the bet value (5). Happy to explain this in more detail, if you want to know more :)

Let me take you through the process for this particular bet

I'll first check all the different markets on the match, to see if there's anything that could potentially have some value. As I'm only going to recommend odds from Unibet, it's much more difficult than normally. I'm obviously not going to pick a bet, where our odds is around the market average or below, so not only does the general market level have to be interesting, Unibet has to be among the bookmakers offering the highest odds on the outcome. I tend to look quite a lot at the odds on Pinnacle and compare them to Unibet.

I checked the odds for 1X2, Asian Handicaps, Over/Under, Both teams to score, Bayern over/under etc., and the only bets of interest were Bayern -2.5, -2.75 and -3 and Lewandowski to score. As I now identified these bets as interesting, I started looking at them in more detail. I quickly realized that Lewandowski to score didn't have any value, and moved on focus on the Asian Handicaps.

How did I determine there wasn't any value in Lewandowski to score? For Anytime Goalscorer bets, the expected number of goals from the team is of course critical information, but that alone gives you nothing. Personally I look at lot at recent form of the player; how many shots has he had in the past games, where did the shots go, how many goalscoring opportunities did he have etc. The opponents defence and how they'll match up to your man is of course also important. Knowledge is key, and sometimes you don't even need to do any detailed analysis, to identify a great bet. A good example is from the 2012-2013 season, when Lewis Holtby played at Schalke. In the previous season, he'd primarily played DM and by the start of the new season he was going to play AM, with just Huntelaar in front of him. His pre-season had been fantastic. The odds on some bookmakers didn't really reflect this, and there was very good value in him to score in the first few games of the season. He scored in 3 of the first 5 matches of the season, and the odds was between 7 and 5.

Well, back to the AH bet. As with the goalscorer bets, I like to use shots statistics for an initial estimation of the chance. I then make adjustments based on team news, last 2-3 games etc. etc. - basically anything that has an influence. I also like to look at related bets and use them as a reference, but that's usually earlier in the process, when I just browse the markets. If I'm looking at handicap bets, I'd e.g. check over/under lines, clean sheet odds etc. After adding and subtracting back and forth, I'll  end up with a percentage. If this is more than 101%, I'd usually place the bet. Depending on the bet, it might not happen on paper/Excel, but I'll simply just do the calculations in my head.

Again, knowledge really is key. Personally I spend a lot of time:

1. Browsing Twitter for expert opinions, updates from players and teams etc.

2. Reading German football news (Kicker, Bild, 11Freunde, DerWesten etc. etc.)

3. Watching matches (usually 2-5 every week) and occationally press conferences as well

I'll probably do a blog post soon, where I go more in detail with the numbers and actual method. The above is obviously very high-level.

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Result so far:
No bets settled.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 - AG: Huntelaar - odds 2.75

This is an Anytime Goalscorer bet on Huntelaar. If Huntelaar scores, the bet is won. If Huntelaar isn't in the starting lineup, the bet will be voided.

As always, the expectations are high in Gelsenkirchen. Heidel and Weinzierl have both gotten of to a decent start in their new jobs, and everyone is hoping for Champions League qualification after a couple of seasons with Europa League. A few weeks ago Klopp was quoted for saying "I know no Dortmund fan wants to hear this, but I think Schalke could be really successfull" - like adding fuel to the fire of high expectations. The expectations at Commerzbank-Arena are not quite as high, and the German Cup game last Sunday also indicates that it's going to be a tough season for the club from the fifth-largest German city. Last season relegation was avoided very last minute in the 2nd relegation play-off match against Nürnberg. Schalke has been fairly active on the transfer market this summer, and one or two more players are still to arrive, according to the German media. Most significant signings are Embolo (most expensive player in the clubs history, € 22.5 million), Naldo, Coke and Baba. Also worth noting that Avdijaj and Ayhan are back after having been on loan, and it should of course also be mentioned that Sané was sold for a record-breaking € 50 million. In Frankfurt it's been really, really quite with just two new signings and a few more players coming on loan.

This is a good bet because

  • Schalke have had a very decent pre-season with recent wins against Athletic Bilbao, Fiorentina and Bologna, and Schalke scored 3, 3 and 2 goals in the games respectively. They didn't exactly impress in the cup game against Villingen, but they cruised home a 1-4 victory.
  • Huntelaar in particular can be very happy about the past month. He scored in the weekend's cup game against Villingen, against Kiel, Athletic, Wanne Eickel, Luzern, Eintrach Rheine and Guangzhou R&F. In other words he's scored in 7 of 10 games. Some of the opponents quality, or rather lack thereof, of course has to be taken into consideration
  • The team from Gelsenkirchen seem to continue the trend from previous seasons; we don't care how many goals are scored against us, as long as we score more. I'll admit I haven't been able to watch that much of the pre-season games, but what I have seen hasn't been impressive defensively. Is this bet is just about Huntelaar scoring, many goals is obviously a good thing - preferably the goals should be in Hradecky's goal though.
  • In the cup game against Villingen, Schalke played with a 4-4-2 formation, which didn't work that well. With Meyer back from a very successful Olympic, the formation is likely to change back to the 4-2-3-1 that the team has fancied in recent years. Huntelaar will surely be chosen as the lone striker.
  • Schalkes style of play is expected to be slightly different under Weinzierl, and Huntelaar has been drawing some parallels to Ralf Rangnick. Rangnick was coach for Schalke for half the 2011/2012 season where Huntelaar scored 29 goals in the Bundesliga. Huntelaar should expect more balls in the penalty box, compared to the last couple of seasons.
  • Despite a recent bad record, Huntelaar is expected to shoot penalties.

You might loose the bet because

  • The 3 guys behind Huntelaar are likely going to be Meyer, Embolo and Choupo. I'm not sure how good Embolo will be at setting up Huntelaar, but it did look fairly promising against Villingen. This is more of an uncertainty - could turn out to be positive to have Embolo on the wing.
  • Schalke haven't signed a replacement for Sané yet. Embolo can play his position though.
  • Huntelaar hasn't had as many shots per game in the past two seasons, as he used to (2.6 last season)
  • Schalke are not very strong away from Veltins Arena and they failed to score in 29 % of the away games last season. Furthermore Frankfurt managed to keep a clean sheet in 29 % of their home games, which is very decent, considering where they ended up in the table.

Expected lineups and team news

Frankfurt

102633487_FrankfurtagainstSchalke.PNG.650a0dbfd3c245df017f1ea51ab1c31b.PNG

 Notable injuries: Stendera, Russ

Schalke
1800348253_SchalkeagainstFrankfurt.PNG.d3b84fa5244014ca6d11c76d99dd6b90.PNG

 Notable injuries: Coke, Uchida, Goretzka (expect him to be ready, but not sure he'll be fit for the starting 11)

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
There's a great degree of uncertainty related to this bet - e.g. not so sure about the formation, which can in worst case move 1-2 %. I estimate the chance of winning to be around 37-39 %, giving a bet value of 101.8-107.3. Recommend 1 unit on this bet.

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Result so far:
No bets settled.

Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg, 28/08 15:30 CET - AG: Niederlechner - odds 4.9

This is an Anytime Goalscorer bet on Niederlechner. If Niederlechner scores, the bet is won. If Niederlechner isn't in the starting lineup, the bet will be voided.

As I'm busy with other things, this will be a very short written analysis. Niederlechner is riding a wave of success at the moment. He had a great "Rückrunde" (2nd half of the season) in the 2nd best league last season, scoring 8 goals in 14 games. In the pre-season he has, without comparison, been Freiburg's most dangerous man when attacking. He's scored 15 of Freiburg's 42 goals (including the German Cup game), a staggering 36 %, and in many of the games he only played 45 minutes. In the last two games he's played, he's scored 4 of Freiburgs 7 goals. What speaks against this bet is the strength of the team and Hertha's performance at Olympiastadion. Hertha kept a clean sheet in 47 % of their home games, last season. On the other hand Freiburg's offensive was really strong last season, scoring 75 goals and only failing to score in two games - this was in the second best league. Depending on the formation, there's a good chance Niederlechner won't get 90 minutes on the pitch.

I estimate the chance of winning the bet to be 22 %, giving a bet value of 107.8. Recommend 1 unit on this bet. 

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@Stubbe-Unibet wrote:

Result so far:

No bets settled.

Bayern München vs Werder Bremen - Bayern AH -3 - odds 2.48

This is an Asian Handicap bet on Bayern München. If Bayern win with 4 or more, the bet is won, if Bayern win with 3, the bet is voided and if Bayern lose, draw or win with two or less, the bet is lost. 

The title favorites from the south against the relegation contenders from the north. The fans of "Die Grün-Weißen" surely look back at the 2003-2004 season with longing. Just 10 years ago, the team from Bremen was the main title contenders along with Bayern. Today they're merely considered a mediocre team by Bundesliga standards, and they're expected to finish in the bottom half of the table this season. 

Bayern is hated and loved for the dominance in recent years (among other things) and the bookmakers estimate their chance of winning this season to be almost 90 %!

This is David against Goliath, and I don't think the outcome will be close to that of the Books of Samuel. It's not a question of whether Bayern will win, it's a question of how much they'll win.

This is a good bet because

  • Bremen have had a bad pre-season and Sunday they lost 2-1 in the German Cup against Sportfreunde Lotte. The name sounds familiar? Probably not; they played Regionalliga last season and are playing in the 3rd best division this season. Defensively Bremen has looked weak, and it's honestly difficult to predict who'll be in the starting 11, as no one really has impressed.
  • Not only did Bremen lose the game against a 3rd division team, Max Kruse also got seriously injured. Kruse came from Wolfsburg this season and was supposed to form a goal scoring duo with Pizarro. Speaking of Pizarro; the Peruvian probably wont be ready for the Bayern game either.
  • In Bayern's 17 home games last season, 6 of them was won with a goal margin of 4 or more and 2 were won with a goal margin of 3. In the home game against Werder (March) they won 5-0 - they also met in the German Cup a month later, where Bayern won 2-0.
  • Last season Bayern managed an impressive 18.4 shots per game and 80 goals (2.35 per game, 3 per home game).
  • Bayern have had a decent pre-season and a good start to the season. First they won 2-0 against Dortmund in the Super Cup (the result does not reflect how good Dortmund actually played in this game - hurts a little to write those words) and Friday they won 0-5 against Carl Zeiss Jenna. Lewandowski scored the first three goals of the game. 

You might loose the bet because

  • Of Bremen's 9 lost away games last season, 5 of them were with a goal margin of 1, and just 3 were with a goal margin of 3 or more. On average, Bremen conceded 1.91 goals per match, 2.06 in away games.
  • Bayern are without Coman and Robben. On a more positive note both Alonso and Thiago will be ready for the game this Friday
  • Bayern without Boateng is a much weaker Bayern - in my opinion he's currently the best CD in the world.
  • Despite the good result against Dortmund in the Super Cup, Ancelotti's troops were not at all convincing.

Expected lineups and team news

Bayern

84205070_BayernagainstWerder.PNG.09fb5f3e8174fef8a791fdc83c10181e.PNGNotable injuries: Boateng, Costa, Robben, Coman, Badstuber

Werder Bremen

38746984_WerderagainstBayern.PNG.9478574c7b909fbf8426843dd4d5a86f.PNG

  Notable injuries: Kruse, Pizarro, Bargfrede

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)

I estimate the chance of winning the bet to be around 42 %, giving a bet value of 104.2. Recommend 1 unit on this bet.


The odds has, as expected, slashed and is now 2.23 = no longer any value in this bet. Odds on the Huntelaar and the Niederlechner bets remain unchanged.

Kicker just published their expected lineups, and they've got Niederlechner alone upfront and Philipp just behind him - great for the bet, if that'll be the case :)

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Result so far:
No bets settled.

Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 27/08 18:30 CET - AG: Raffael - odds 3.15

This is an Anytime Goalscorer bet on Raffael. If Raffael scores, the bet is won. If Raffael isn't in the starting lineup, the bet will be voided.

Without doubt the most interesting game this round - even as a Schalke fan I think so. It's a game between to Champions League contenders who both want to finish in top 4, and these H2H games are of course very important in that regard. This is a six-pointer.
Both clubs have done reasonably well on the "Transfermarkt" this summer. Leverkusen look slightly stronger on paper, and for Borussia it's pretty much status quo.
Last season the two clubs played some very entertaining matches against each other, with Leverkusen winning the first 5-0 and Borussia taking home a 2-1 victory in the second game. With 67 goals scored and 50 goals concessed last season, Borussia was in general just a very fun team to watch - 3.44 goals per match, on average!

This is a good bet because

  • Borussia have had a good pre-season and perfect start to the season. They won 0-1 against SV Drochtersen/Assel in the German Cup, which is not very impressive, but in the Champions League qualification they won 1-3 and 6-1 against Young Boys. 
  • Borussia-Park is a fortress and the clubs record for last season was 13-1-3 - they had a very bad start to the season with 5 defeats, 2 of them being at home.
  • The bookmakers estimate the chance of Borussia scoring over 1.5 goals to be 46 % and 77 % for over 0.5 goals. As mentioned above, they scored 67 goals last season and at home they managed an average of 2.47 goals.
  • Raffael had a fantastic last season with 13 goals and 10 assists - 13 scored goals is also his average for the last 3 seasons. Not only did he have a great last season, he has also continued his strong form in the pre-season and Champions League qualifiers. Yesterday he scored a hattrick against Young Boys, and looking at Borussias last 7 games, he's scored 7 of their 20 goals (35 %). 
  • Raffael is expected to shoot free kicks and possibly penalties as well. 

You might loose the bet because

  • Raffael doesn't have that many shots on goal per game (2.3), and he scores on 19 % of his shots. His shots are fairly accurate though, having the same shot accuracy as Lewandowski and 3 percentage points higher than e.g. Aubameyang. 
  • Leverkusen have have a good pre-season with victories against Fiorentina (3-1), Sociedad (2-0) and others. In the cup game last weekend they weren't convincing though, just winning 2-1 against SC Hauenstein playing in the "Oberliga".
  • Leverkusen were defensively strong last season, conceding just 1.18 goal per game (1.35 in away games).

Expected lineups and team news

Borussia

662648619_BorussiaagainstBayer.PNG.77f02167036791fba6ce01672addc63c.PNG

Injuries: Dominguez, Doucouré, Drmic 3,

Leverkusen

180463364_bayeragainstBorussia.PNG.0d71e8938dd5308f9f65d84829573eb8.PNG

Injuries: da Costa, Dragovic (won't join the team before after the national games), Bender, Chicharito, Kießling

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
I estimate the chance of Raffael scoring to be around 33 %, giving a bet value of 103.9

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So close to the start of the Bundesliga season that I've almost started shaking of excitement :geek:

BLstart.gif.4cf0526081e73751a534d2e37f995a4f.gif

I'm not going to post further bets for this week but will just do a short recap.

I've got 4 bets for the first round:

  1. Bayern München vs Werder Bremen - Bayern AH -3 - odds 2.48. This odds has slashed big time since I posted it and it's currently at 2.00 - yeah, sure it's all because of my little analysis 🆒. This was really expected, and you'll see that 90 % of the bets I post on a favorite, they'll be online at least 4-5 days before the game. No longer any value in this bet.
  2. Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04, 27/08 15:30 CET - AG: Huntelaar - odds 2.75. As you might have noticed I'm pretty fond of the anytime goalscorer bets, and there're several reasons for this: 1. The odds tend to stay pretty much the same, so even though you read the post a few days later, there'll likely still be value, 2. Unibet are almost always the bookmaker with the highest odds on this bet type, 3. I've got a good record on this particular bet type. The odds on Schalke to win is decreasing slightly and this trend should continue in the next 24 hours. The odds on Huntelaar is still the same, and there's still value in this.
  3. Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg, 28/08 15:30 CET - AG: Niederlechner - odds 4.9. Odds on Freiburg dropping, but again the AG bets are staying the same - still odds 4.9 on Niederlechner. Still value in this bet.
  4. Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 27/08 18:30 CET - AG: Raffael - odds 3.15. I feel like I'm repeating myself, but the odds on Borussia are dropping. The odds on Raffael has changed a little, as it's now 3.10. There's still value, but it's not much.

 

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