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Stubbe's Bundesliga Corner


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And a few words about why I think there's value in this bet (wanted to post the bet asap, as Unibet currently has the highest odds and it has started to slash): 
Yes, Schalke ♥️❤️♥️ ♥️❤️♥️ at the moment, and they've had the worst ever start to a Bundesliga season. The opening odds was 2.07, and it was around 2.17 before the public money made this bet interesting. Let's be honest; the majority don't do much research before placing a bet, and to many an odds close to 5 will be very interesting, when the other team has lost 5 league games in a row. There's a huge difference between the quality of these two teams, and even though Schalke haven't impressed, they haven't been as bad as the Bundesliga table would suggest. They played a very decent game in Nice - should have won with at least two goals - and Salzburg disappointed at home against Krasnodar. I'm fairly certain we'll see some tactical changes from Weinzierl, which I expect to have a positive effect - can of course have the opposite effect as well, but hey, how much worse can it get ;)

EDIT: Just as I finished writing this, the odds decreased a little. It's now 2.43, which still has a bit of value.

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@psrquack wrote:

I think your team is in a must-win-how-doesn't-matter period, so after the supposed first goal they will trying to pass the bus driver exam. So I expect short, safety first passes, some crampedness and physical play. I can't support your bet.


I don't remember the last time I saw Schalke park the buss with success :D

If they're leading 1-0 with 15-20 minutes left, they might try, but else I don't really see it happening tbh - didn't do it against Nice. It's not really the Schalke way to play, and they don't have the defensive stability to do it.

As expected, there're quite a lot of changes in the starting 11 for Schalke. Defensively it looks quite strong, but the team might be struggling a bit in the other end of the pitch, which obviously doesn't speak for this bet.

Fährmann

Höwedes - Naldo - Nastasic - Kolasinac

Geis - Bentaleb

Schöpf - Meyer - Goretzka

Embolo

CtiCqayWEAIZI0b

 

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@Stubbe-Unibet wrote:

 

As expected, there're quite a lot of changes in the starting 11 for Schalke. Defensively it looks quite strong, but the team might be struggling a bit in the other end of the pitch, which obviously doesn't speak for this bet.

 


This is what I'm saying about. The need of win. Or at least the need of don't lose. It's always heavy playing a difference tactic as the conventional. Doon't forget, only Bundesliga counts (and the game against BVB) the EL is the plus but not the first target of the season.

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To be honest, it was a terrible and boring first half. RB played like a home team and Schalke tried the counter attack play(oh it's so heavy typing it in english, because I watch the game with german commentators and trying everything to write in german).  So I think Schalke should put RB more under pressure  and close the opportunity of RB's wing attacks.

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@startelver wrote:

Do you think there is a good chance for Borussia Mönchengladbach away win this weekend ? I know the odds has decreased but it still looks like value to me.


@startelver, my initial estimation was a 33 % chance for a Gladbach victory, which was a bit conservative, but now I think it's quite accurate. Schalke didn't play their best game yesterday, but the team spirit was different, they were fighting more and playing more like a team. 

The odds is currently increasing, and as we're always a bit slow updating the odds, we currently have one of the lowest odds on the market. I'd wait a little and see if the odds increase in the next 5 hours. It needs be to be at least 3.10, before it's interesting :)

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@gillvs77 wrote:

is Raffael not a loss for M'gladbach?


It's a loss indeed - he's probably been the best Gladbach player this season. Hahn and Hazard is not a bad attack though, and that he's missing doesn't change a whole lot for me. Schalke's defense has looked horrible the entire season - including yesterday - and it doesn't exactly take a Messi or Ronaldo to score - even Bendtner would stand a chance :)

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So, haven't found further bets for the 6th round, but might post 1-2 later today or tomorrow. Below the four bets previously posted for this round.

Hertha BSC vs HSV - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund - AH Dortmund -1 - Odds 3.1 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png
VfL Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png
Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.20 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png

Mainz is now at 4.60 and Gladbach is back at 3.20. The other two bets are not that interesting, but HSV might increase closer to kickoff. 

 

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Not the most lucky betting weekend, but it's looking good for the season bets Choupo to be TGS for Schalke and Aubameyang to be TGS in the league :) Mainz should've won today, and HSV could just as well had ended 3-4.

Status after the 6th Bundesliga round:

# of bets: 36
# of settled bets: 33
# of won bets: 13
Units in play: 35.5
Average odds: 3.9
Average bet value: 105.7
ROI 9.4
Units won: 2.68

A few early bets for the next round:

FC Augsburg vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 2.65 :cash::cash:
Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC - 1X2: 2 - Odds 12 :cash::cash::cash:
VfL Wolfsburg vs RB Leipzig - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.50 :cash::cash:

EDIT: Added value emoticons.

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  • 2 weeks later...

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