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Stubbe's Bundesliga Corner


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Bürki

Passlack-Ginter-Sokratis-Piszczek

Weigl

Dembele-Götze-Kagawa-Pulisic

Aubameyang

starting for Dortmund. Castro is injured.

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
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@WuDu wrote:

I'll be watching as well. Dortmund-Bayern, Dortmund-Schalke, those are great games. Did you place a bet on Schalke? 


Yeah, put a bit on them when the odds opened at 7, and then a bit more at 6.85, when I posted the bet in this thread. Got 2.5 units in total + 2 units on Götze NTS and 1 unit on Aubameyang NTS (only got 1 unit on Götze in connection with this blog, but placed a bit more :) )

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Rather boring game, I think we're having some problems this year, regardless of injuries. Congrats on your NTS bets, Götze and Aubameyang each had 1 semi-dangerous goal scoring opportunity, nothing more. In hindsight, the bet on Schalke had some value, however let's be honest, both teams weren't that dangerous today.

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
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A Ruhr-derby is never boring ;)

A bit of a shame with all those cards flying around, could have been more entertaining if they were allowed to play a bit more rough. Very strong first half from Schalke (Dortmund didn't have a single chance), but they started looking a bit tired towards the end of the game, which meant more space for Dortmund. Think both teams are satisfied with a draw :)

Small profit on the game with the two NTS bets :)

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As 50 bets have now been posted in this thread, I think it's time to have a look at the results so far.

The numbers look very good, but I'm not really satisfied with the written analysis I've managed to post in recent weeks. The issue has been that I've posted a lot of very early bets, and the odds has usually slashed 24-48 hours after posting it, and often so much that there's no value. Not having the time to actually write the analysis has also been an issue. I'll try and find more special bets, as the odds on these is less likely to change, and it'll give me more time to put some words behind the bet.

It's looking pretty great for the season bets that were placed pre-season.
Choupo to be top goalscorer for Schalke, odds 5.5. Both Huntelaar and Embolo are out due to injuries, and Choupo is likely to get some time up front. Both Embolo and Choupo are currently at two goals each, and Huntelaar has scored 1.
Aubameyang to be top goalscorer in the Bundesliga, odds 9. Aubameyang has had a great season so far, and him and Lewandowski are both at 7 goals. Modeste is at 11 after a hattrick in the weekend, but I doubt Köln will play this great throughout the season. Highest odds on the market is currently 4.
HSV to finish best in the North, odds 5.5. As expected Wolfsburg have dissapointed, but HSV have also been terrible. Bremen are currently 15th with 7 points, Wolfsburg 16th with 6 points and HSV 18th with 2 points - they can't be to happy in the north of Germany. I'm pretty happy with the bet at this point, as I don't think HSV have played as bad as the two points suggests. Only got one unit on this bet, and three on each of the other two.

The numbers:

Bets placed: 50 (47 settled)
Bets won: 19
Units in play: 47.25
Units won: 7.255
ROI: 18
Average bet value: 105.5
Average odds: 4.1

Excel sheet: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx

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 http://www.bundesliga.de/de/bundesliga/spieltag/9-spielbegegnung-1__fc_koeln-hamburger_sv.jsp?statistics. Agree about EL, think they need a year or two more before playing CL :)

Two bets on the Dortmund game this Wednesday:

Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting CP - Götze not to score - Odds 1.44 :Cash:
Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting CP - Aubameyang to score - Odds 1.72 :Cash:

0.5 unit on each :)

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Got one bet for tomorrow:

Schalke 04 vs Krasnodar - Choupo to score - Odds 2.55 :cash:

As Embolo, Huntelaar and di Santo are all injured, Choupo will be starting up front. He's very likely to get all 90 minutes on the pitch, as Schalke are very short on creative players at the moment. Choupo is always good for a lot of attempts on goals (one every 30 min in the Bundesliga, and that has been as a wing), and I expect at least 5 from him tomorrow.

Will put half a unit on this one.

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@Stubbe-Unibet wrote:

@juicyapple http://www.bundesliga.de/de/bundesliga/spieltag/9-spielbegegnung-1__fc_koeln-hamburger_sv.jsp?statistics. Agree about EL, think they need a year or two more before playing CL :)

Two bets on the Dortmund game this Wednesday:

Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting CP - Götze not to score - Odds 1.44 :Cash:

Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting CP - Aubameyang to score - Odds 1.72 :Cash:

0.5 unit on each :)


Aubameyang wasn't even in the squad. Reason isn't really known yet, but seems like a disciplinary issue. Pretty happy with the Götze bet, as he didn't even have an attempt on goal.

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Two more bets on the game:

Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen - S04 to win to nil - Odds 3.15
Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen - AG: Bentaleb - Odds 4.75

Bentaleb has been one of the best Schalke players this season, and with the current injury situation, he's playing higher up the pitch. He's scored 3 goals, made two assists, had 15 shots on goal and 31 passes that led to a shot on goal, in the Bundesliga (736 minutes played). I believe there's a little value in him to score tomorrow.

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Interesting tips, will try Bentaleb in some 2fold (maybe with Goetze not to score 😃). Schalke got good run, its time to be back to old routine 🆒, IMO theres good chance they will have problems with Werder (BTS?). 

Usually im looking for both to score in Bundesliga. What do you think about Freiburg/Eintracht/Ingolstadt?

the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist
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Just remember, if you see tattooed guys wearing dark suits and sunglasses and they cut the line in front of you, don't take any crap from them. Show them who's boss...😃

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We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
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  • 2 weeks later...

Have had a free couple of hours this morning (10:35 in Japan, as I'm writing this), so had a look at the odds and have found a few bets:

VfL Wolfsburg vs Schalke 04 - Gomez NTS - Odds 1.41 :cash::cash:
VfL Wolfsburg vs Schalke 04 - Bentaleb to score - Odds 5.00 :cash:
VfL Wolfsburg vs Schalke 04 - Away team to win without conceding a goal - Odds 5.30 :cash:

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münich - Away team to win without conceding a goal - Odds 4.30 :cash:

 

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Pretty great day yesterday with Schalke's 0-1 win against Wolfsburg. Aubameyang's goal means he's now even bigger favorite to become the top goalscorer - if he does, our total ROI will be around 65 :D Currently we're at 59 settled bets and a ROI of 20! :)

I've got one bet for today:

Hoffenheim vs HSV - 1X2: 2 - Odds 6 :cash: :cash: :cash:

The odds opened at around 4.6, and it has only been increasing since then. It might increase further, but I doubt it. I give HSV roughly 18 % chance of winning, which gives a very nice bet value of 108! :) 

It's worth keeping an eye on the odds on Werder Bremen to win against Eintracht Frankfurt. The odds opened at 2.50 and is now at 2.90, which starts to become interesting. If the odds reaches 3.1, I'll definitely put a unit on it.

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ROI 23.4, +12,2 units.

A few bets for this round. None of them with great value. Don't have time for any written analysis because of all the Unibet Open and advent calendar preparation.

HSV vs Werder Bremen - 1X2: 1 - Odds 2.40 :cash:

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund - Dembele NTS - Odds 1.35 :cash:

Schalke 04 vs Darmstadt - Under 2.5 goals - Odds 2.04 :cash:

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Excel sheet updated: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx

Not the best weekend, but because of the EL bet on Schalke there's still a small profit for the full week. I probably won't be posting more than a couple more times this year, as I've got a lot of other stuff going on. 

On Saturday there's an extremely interesting match between the two best teams in the league - best if looking at the recent games. Both teams are undefeated in the last 12 games in the Bundesliga/Europa League! I'll have one unit on this bet:

RB Leipzig vs Schalke 04 - Schalke to win without conceding a goal - Odds 7 :Cash: :Cash:

I've also put one unit on:

VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha Berlin - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.15 :Cash::Cash:
Darmstadt vs HSV - BTTS: Yes - Odds 1.85 :Cash:
Mainz vs Bayern Münich - AH: Mainz +1 - Odds 3.10 :Cash: (this is likely to be a bit higher later this week, so I recommend waiting a little and following the odds movements)

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  • 2 weeks later...

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