Stubbe's Bundesliga Corner

[BonusPater]

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@Buy1get1free wrote:

I can't open your updated excel doc

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https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx try this link instead.

I have been a little busy lately, so haven't had time to follow the odds movements. I'll have a look today or tomorrow and maybe post a pick or two more :)

[BonusPater]

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@Buy1get1free wrote:

I can't open your updated excel doc

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https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx try this link instead.

I have been a little busy lately, so haven't had time to follow the odds movements. I'll have a look today or tomorrow and maybe post a pick or two more :)

[startelver]

Do you think Stuttgart has a good chance of winning tomorrow in BL2 ? The away odds went down to 2.00 , they should be favourites. 

 

 

[jerry]

So, today we can agree that Dortmund will not be a title contender. :teardrop:

For tomorrow i think Hoffenheim/Bayern/Leverkusen and with Stuttgart they are shaky right know, i would consider both to score in that match. 

[WuDu]

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@jerry wrote:

So, today we can agree that Dortmund will not be a title contender. :teardrop:

For tomorrow i think Hoffenheim/Bayern/Leverkusen and with Stuttgart they are shaky right know, i would consider both to score in that match. 

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To be fair, the BVB was missing half its starters and Berlin is a team on the rise, especially with Dardai as head coach.

[BonusPater]

A shame with the Hertha Berlin bet, would've been nice with an extra 11 units :)

I haven't been following the 2. Bundesliga closely this season, so I can't really say if there's value or not. My initial thought is that there isn't any value, and the odds would have to be around 2:15, for it to be interesting :)

[BonusPater]

The three bets for today/tomorrow that I posted like two weeks ago:

FC Augsburg vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 2.65 
FC Köln vs Ingolstadt - AH: Home -1 - Odds 2.6
VfL Wolfsburg vs RB Leipzig - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.50

Schalke now at 2.25 (obviously no value), Leipzig at 3.1 (not really interesting either) and Köln at 2.95 (good value!). I expect to post a few early bets during the weekend, so stay tuned. I've said it a few times in the thread already, but I will try and be better at posting written analysis :)

[BonusPater]

Despite 0.5 unit profit this round (if Leipzig actually manage to win the match), I can't help but feel a little dissapointed. The three other bets were as close to being winning as possible, but the marginals just weren't on our side :)

One early bet for next round:

SV Darmstadt vs VfL Wolfsburg - 1X2: 1 - Odds 5.25 :cash:

I expect to have a couple more as soon as the AH and OU bets are on the site :)

Excel doc updated: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx

 

 

[GotWhatItTakes]

What do you think about Köln´s recent success? They did come out of nowhere, didn´t they? I think their coach Stoeger and manager (Schmadtke?) are doing and did an incredible job in the past years. It seems, that this year their work pays off tremendously. :cash:

[BonusPater]

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@GotWhatItTakes wrote:

What do you think about Köln´s recent success? They did come out of nowhere, didn´t they? I think their coach Stoeger and manager (Schmadtke?) are doing and did an incredible job in the past years. It seems, that this year their work pays off tremendously. :cash:

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No doubt they've done great so far this season, but they've also had the marginals on their side in pretty much every single game. They've been extremely effective, scoring on 37 % of their chances (3rd best in the league), and Modeste has been an absolute beast. Schmadtke and Stöger of course deserve some credit.

It is of course surprising that they're doing this well, but I don't think it's come out of nowhere. Since the signing of Stöger and Schmadtke for the 13/14 season, they've slowly but surely improved. Köln wasn't exactly a quiet and peaceful place (nothing compared to the nut house in Schalke in recent years, but still) prior to the 13/14 season, but Schmadtke managed to change this and he's consistently improved the squad. Having managed to extend the contract with key players such as Modeste, Hector and Bittencourt has also been key.

• 13/14: promotion from the 2nd Bundesliga
• 14/15: 12th in the Bundesliga
• 15/16: 9th in the Bundesliga 
• 16/17: 3rd at the moment

Next week they're playing against one of the other positive suprises this season, Hertha, and I think it'll be difficult for them to get any points in this game. Luckily for Köln they've got Hoffenheim (DFB Pokal) and Hamburg in the following two games, both at home, so they'll probably be back to winning right after the Hertha game. I do think they've got a very good chance of being in top 5 after 10 games, and even when we reach the Christmas break, they're probably 5th-7th.

[BonusPater]

Odds on Darmstadt already down to 4.5 = no longer any value.

I expect the odds to increase a little next week (will probably get close to 5.25 again at some point) :)

[GotWhatItTakes]

Wow , you did a great analysis there on the situation in Köln. Until now I didn´t about the effect of variance in football, but I guess there is a lot of variance. So, Köln is on a nice upswing currently, I guess. 😃 

 

What is your favourite team and why? Sorry if you already answered this question already, didn´t read the whole thread. 

[BonusPater]

I'm only fan of one team; Schalke :) Here's a bit of info from the first post:

"It all started back in the 2000/2001 season, when the Danish forward Ebbe Sand had a fantastic season at Schalke 04. My interest was aroused; I read a lot about Schalke and the Bundesliga, and I started watching a lot of games as well. It didn't take long, before I was hooked - I had become a Bundesliga junkie. In the years to come, I'd spend countless hours in front of the tv and computer, watching and analyzing games, reading Bundesliga news etc. The number of Schalke matches I've missed in the last 2 years, can be counted on one hand, and I've obviously been to Gelsenkirchen a few times as well."

[BonusPater]

Having a difficult time finding value in the early bets this week (at least on Unibet) :annoyed:

Well, I've found a bet that's a little interesting: FC Ingolstadt vs Borussia Dortmund - 1X2: 2 - odds 1.60 :cash:

There's very little value in this, but value nonetheless. There're a few outcomes that could become interesting when the public money starts to affect the market.

[BonusPater]

I've found three bets for the next three days. The value is very limited, and as it's CL/EL, I'm only going to have 0.25 unit on each. Even though I do think there's value, these bets are primarily for the entertainment.

Sporting vs Dortmund - AH: Dortmund -1 - Odds 3.25
Bayern München vs PSV - AH: PSV +2.5 - Odds 1.58
Krasnodar vs Schalke - Both teams to score: No - Odds 2.38

Excel doc updated: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx

[BonusPater]

The below graphs are pretty useless with the few bets we've got, but as I was making a template for it anyway, why not just share it :)

[BonusPater]

Looking good with Darmstadt but don't know what Dortmund are doing - feels bad with the bet, but can't help but smile a little when it's Dortmund :D

A bit of a longshot for the late game today:

Bayern München vs Mönchengladbach - 1X2: 2 - Odds 17 :cash:

I've been too busy to update the "blog" this week, sorry!

[BonusPater]

Excel doc updated: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx (ROI 18.5)

An early bet on the next round:

Hoffenheim vs Hertha - 1X2: 1 - Odds 2.40

Considering a bet on Schalke against Dortmund (next week), but I'll probably wait and see how the match tomorrow goes :)

[BonusPater]

Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 6.85

Will add written analysis on Friday :)

[psrquack]

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@Stubbe-Unibet wrote:

Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 6.85

Will add written analysis on Friday :)

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I'm not sure this guess was made with a cool head.😏

[BonusPater]

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@psrquack wrote:

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@Stubbe-Unibet wrote:

Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 6.85

Will add written analysis on Friday :)

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I'm not sure this guess was made with a cool head.😏

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haha, probably not ;)

I'm not hiding I'm a huge Schalke supporter, and that might influence me a little bit in this case, but I really think there's a bit of value. Will explain on Friday ;)

Tough opponent Dortmund are up against today, no wonder it's still 0-0 😏

[juicyapple]

bet on s04 or like dnb or d/c are good bets because its derby and bvb have some injury + have a little down.

if we look on the statistics from this session then its maybe not worth a bet because s04 not even won 1match outside and bvb not even loss a match at home and bvb have to win to save the 5% chance for the german cup...

on derby all can happen... so gl all with ur bets 👍

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[BonusPater]

I had planned to write a piece of analysis on the 1X2 bet I've posted, but as the odds is down by quite a lot, I'll focus on two other bets.

"Die Mutter aller Derbys“ , the mother of all derbys. Dortmund - Schalke, in German football it doesn't get any bigger than this. Pure emotions; love and hatred - what football is (or rather should be) all about. Below a few videos from the Schalke training - do you see scenes like this at Real Madrids or Barcelonas training ground before El Clasico? :)

I've found two bets with good value:

Aubameyang not to score, bet value 105.6. If we only look at his goalscoring stats, this might seem like a weird bet; he's scored 7 goals in 7 Bundesliga games. He's has 24 shots on goal, which also doesn't exactly make this look like a great bet either. So how come there's value? He's been struggling with a calf injury lately, and Thursday he couldn't participate in the team training (did some individual running). He is expected to start though, but I doubt that he'll play the entire game, as he simply can't be 100 % fit just yet (he doesn't risk anything by playing today, as it's not a muscle injury). A strong defensive hasn't exactly been Schalkes trademark in recent years, but this might be about to change. The 3 CB's (Nastasic, Naldo and Höwedes at RB) seem to have stabilized the defensive, and the team has been playing very compact recently - they've only let in one goal in the last three BL games. Fährmann is of course also a force to be reckoned with, and 1-on-1 situations is his speciality (Aubameyang creates quite a lot of these). 

Götze not to score, bet value 107.2. The odds on Götze to score just don't make any sense, and it's been like this the entire season. The average odds on Götze to score today is around 2.45, so the bookmakers give him like a 33-35 % chance of scoring (low payback on this type of bet). If you look at all three seasons he played in Bayern, he did indeed score 22 goals in 73 games, which gives him approx. 30 % chance of scoring/70 % not to score. Actually he only score in 17 of the 73 games (he scored two in some), so based on this, his chance of scoring is more like 23 %. Then keep in mind that in his last season, the goals he scored were against opponens as HSV (8-0!!), Hoffenheim (4-0), Werder (6-0!), Köln (2-0), Paderborn (4-0) and Stuttgart (2-0). As mentioned earlier in this post, Schalke have been fairly strong defensively in recent games, so they shouldn't be compared to opponents like this. This should move another few percent, so we're at 20 % or so for him to score = 80 % not to score. This is without keeping in mind that he has played 302 minutes (5 games) and only had TWO, I say again TWO shots on goal. Assuming he plays all 90 minutes, he's only got a 30 % chance of actually getting a shot on goal - not sure he'll get all 90 minutes. He has had 11 passes that led to a shot, but still 0 assists this season. Oh, and I forgot to mention that he played 120 minutes just three days ago. I'm going with a very, very conservative 76 % on him not to score, which gives a decent bet value of 107.2.

[BonusPater]

Apparently embedding videos from Facebook doesn't work very well. If you want to watch the first one: https://www.facebook.com/OfficialMaxMeyer/videos/vb.148992021932531/709321305899597/?type=2&theater

[WuDu]

I'll be watching as well. Dortmund-Bayern, Dortmund-Schalke, those are great games. Did you place a bet on Schalke?