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Stubbe's Bundesliga Corner


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Small profit yesterday with the Darmstadt bet being voided and Aubameyang scoring. Really was a shame with the Darmstadt bet, I felt they should've won with two (switched between the game and the Dortmund one, so might have missed some action :) ).

Today I've got one bet, and might post another one later:

Schalke 04 vs Augsburg - AG: Goretzka - odds 5.30 :cash:

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Excel sheet updated: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx

ROI: 11.3
Units won/lost: +10.235
# of bets: 111
# of settled bets: 106

Two bets for the midweek:

Atl. Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen - AH: Home -1.5 - Odds 2.75 :Cash::Cash:
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Schalke 04 - To Qualify: Schalke - Odds 2.60 :Cash:

And a bet for the weekend:

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV - 1X2: 1 - Odds 2.38 :Cash:

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One more bet on the game tonight:

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Schalke 04 - AG: Burgstaller - Odds 3.30 :cash: :cash:

Burgstaller, who's already a fan favorite in Gelsenkirchen, is in great form (3 goals in the last two games), and with Schalke having to score in this game, I expect slightly more action than Unibet. Schalke were dominating in the first leg, and I think we're in for a real close one with plenty of chances in both ends. I expect Burgstaller to play at least 75 minutes, and considering he has a shot on goal every 25 minutes, on average, I think there's decent value in odds 3.30.

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What an amazing game. Burgstaller didn't manage to score, but Schalke are ready for another two matches, and they're my favorites to win the title (maybe not 100 % objective in this moment of euphoria :) ). This calls for a celebration :D

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Excel doc updated https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx

ROI below 10 (9.3) for the first time in several months. Unfortunately there're the national games this week, so we'll have to wait two weeks before we're blessed with the wonderful Bundesliga again. I've found a couple of bets for the next round:

 

Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.90

RB Leipzig vs Darmstadt - 1X2: 2 - Odds 10.5

 

There're a few other very interesting matches, but our traders agree a little too much with me on these, compared to the rest of the market.

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Quick update on the season bets:
Choupo to be the top goalscorer for Schalke (odds 5.5, 3 units). Not going to happen, even though Choupo has been in strong form recently. Burgstaller already scored one more, and we'll for sure see more goals from the Austrian.

HSV best in north (5.5, 1 unit). HSV have played much better recently, but so has Werder and Wolfsburg. There're just two points between the three teams, and HSV still have a game against Werder (16/04) and Wolfsburg (20/05 - last game of the season). Everything's possible, but I'd be very surprised, if I win this one.

Aubameyang to be the top goalscorer in the Bundesliga (odds 9, 3 units). This is my bet of the season, and it's still looking good. He's scored one more than Modeste and two more than Lewandowski. I hope Bayern will make it to the CL final and Dortmund are knocked out against Monaco :)

H2H Wolfsburg to be better than Gladbach (1.75, 2 units). Wolfsburg are three points behind but in much better form. Will definitely still give this one +50 %.

H2H Dortmund to be better than Leipzig (2.6, 2 units). As I expected, Dortmund are closing in on the fan favorites from Leipzig, and just 3 points separate the two teams after Leipzig have only managed to get one point in the last three games. Even though Dortmund are obviously going to lose the next game against Schalke, I'm very satisfied with this bet. Dortmund have two difficult games against Schalke and Bayern, but so do Leipzig, and I see them struggling more against opponents like Hertha (away) and Leverkusen (home).

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I'm tempted to place a bet on Schalke (3.80), and I'm surely going to put something on them, before heading to Gelsenkirchen. In this thread I'll go with another bet, as I expect the odds on Schalke to increase, as we get closer to kickoff.
Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund - AG: Burgstaller - Odds 3.30

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Just landed in Germany. Heading to Düsseldorf to drop off some things at the hotel and then it's straight to Veltins Arena :) 

Odds on Schalke increasing, but not much on Unibet, yet. When it gets around 4 it starts to have value. 

20170401_102146.thumb.jpg.0b00b9c8ee531a18bd47a2e62c7115fd.jpg

 

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@Stubbe-Unibet wrote:

1491039752729106171544.thumb.jpg.ddfc0ca824745fa37e384a0212a90ba9.jpg

Minibar emptied. Now off to Gelsenkirchen :D 

 

 


König-Pilsener and Frankenheim. You gotta be kidding me! Does Frankenheim still have the bottle caps where you slice up half your hand if you play around with them?

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We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
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@testuser1you should go into beer marketing if Unibet doesn't work out for you!1mjzwu

 

 

 

 

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We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
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On a bit of a bad run at the moment. Last 6 of 7 bets lost (average odds 4.2, so nothing out of the ordinary really). Luck just isn't on my side at moment, Wolfsburgs match yesterday being a fine example (had Wolfsburg to win at 4.9, and they really deserved that victory). Also a little worrying with Lewandowskis hattrick and my bet on Auba to be the TGS.

Some quick numbers: 113 settled bets, +5.8 units, ROI 6.0.

Only have one pending bet for the next 10 days, and that's the bet on Monaco to win against Dortmund. Got odds 5.25 and the odds is down to 5.0. 5.0 still holds a little bit of value, but if I hadn't placed the bet already, I'd wait and see if the odds don't increase a little, when we get closer to kickoff.

We've got an "Englische Woche" ahead of us, and I'll surely post a few bets this week. Nothing that interesting right now, for the games tomorrow and Wednesday, but let's see when more bet types are added and the odds increased a little.

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