Never give up!

[P0kerM0nk]

On 12/7/2021 at 9:32 PM, Merenitsu said:

Out of about 40 hands, I got 72 hands 6 times. Why didn't I get 2 aces 6 times? How can this be?

At least you know what to do with the 72 so easy game. I hope 🤣

[Merenitsu]

I correctly understood that it could be 2 rates. The sum of the coefficients of which is 2.

 

[Merenitsu]

I went to Hexapro today and got a 7 out of 8 multiplier of 1.5. Lost 7 out of 8. Every time I say thanks to this mode.

[psrquack]

1 minute ago, Merenitsu said:

I went to Hexapro today and got a 7 out of 8 multiplier of 1.5. Lost 7 out of 8. Every time I say thanks to this mode.

What is your expected winrate/multiplier at HexaPro? In a case like this how many 1.5 multiplier would be correct? How many games with how big multipliers should you win?

[Merenitsu]

4 minutes ago, psrquack said:

What is your expected winrate/multiplier at HexaPro? In a case like this how many 1.5 multiplier would be correct? How many games with how big multipliers should you win?

Expected? this year I didn’t even get X 25.

[psrquack]

5 minutes ago, Merenitsu said:

Expected? this year I didn’t even get X 25.

OK, but I'm sure you have something in your mind about the distribution of multipliers, and you know the field aswell so you know with your skills how many games you should win from 8 HexaPros.

[Estzen]

Sorry, but this ranting is just pure non-sense. Your expectations of things occuring, is just severly unrealistic. 

[Merenitsu]

1 hour ago, psrquack said:

OK, but I'm sure you have something in your mind about the distribution of multipliers, and you know the field aswell so you know with your skills how many games you should win from 8 HexaPros.

3 or 4. But all this is exactly what to spin the slots. There is no logic in what happens in this mode. This year, a series and 15 to 20 tournaments in a row have been lost. All this is exactly what to spin the slots 20 times for 1 euro and then there are more chances to win.

[Estzen]

You lack skills for that game. Even if that wouldnt be true, it is possible to lose much more tournaments in a row by pure varience itself. Slots give you short term hit, long term they only take and never give. In poker if worked hard and enough knowledge, can get a rough month, but long term more than 100% back. You'll never find a slot with 110% RTP etc. So no, their not comparable. Its just two things: Your level of the game and varience. If your BB/100 is lets say beating some stake in a very small amount like 2BB/100 - the varience is even greater, because of missed EV spots. Varience for a losing player then is even more skyrocketing - so thats exactely why a losing player can win only BY LUCK. He wins with positive varience which he doesnt understand, but he wont be able to win and beat negative varience, because his BB/100 will never be enough for that. When he wins, he wins because at times, despite wrong decisions they still get effected by positive varience and they still win.

Edited December 9, 2021 by Estzen

[pinki]

38 minutes ago, Estzen said:

Sorry, but this ranting is just pure non-sense. Your expectations of things occuring, is just severly unrealistic. 

@Estzenyou keep trying, but believe me it doesn't make sense. Ranting - this is the main thread of this blog. In my opinion "0lucky theme" ran out about 2 years ago.  It could go on as if there was a sense of humor in the content 😄

... or maybe I don't feel it🤪

[Livertool]

16 minutes ago, Estzen said:

but long term more than 100% back

Almost but not quite. Requires also knowing your level of play.

[FreedoM]

Guys, it's a waste of time, he waits for the magic pill and doesn't want to put any effort like the biggest chunk of the player pool. In his words, his mind is Limitless! 🙄

[Estzen]

32 minutes ago, Livertool said:

Almost but not quite.

Dont take my words out of context, not almost ... 100% anyone who puts in enough work will get it... There is no almost when you do what you need to do to archive the result. 

[Livertool]

10 minutes ago, Estzen said:

Dont take my words out of context, not almost ... 100% anyone who puts in enough work will get it... There is no almost when you do what you need to do to archive the result. 

Just like casino don't have 110% rtp, poker don't give back more or even equal what is played for. So no, just the amount of work don't count but playing at level where you can be winning player 😉

[Estzen]

@Livertool Yes it does, anyone who is winning has to have over 100% RTP from a game he is playng otherwise, it cannot be profitable for anyone. And to archieve that, that someone needs to have an edge over population. And that edge comes from knowledge base <- for that knowledge base, work HAS TO BE DONE. 

Edited December 9, 2021 by Estzen

[Livertool]

13 minutes ago, Estzen said:

that someone needs to have an edge over population.

That is what i meant, you have to play at level when you have that edge over others. But overall poker is just like other gambling products, gives less back what is put in. Hypothetical situation were every player has equal skills makes all losers in long run.

[Estzen]

I wouldnt say its like other gambling products, because in any sport when the field would be equal no1 would be making any money from their wins. The fact that rake is a part of tournament is only a factor if it starts to eat out the edge and by definition makes a game unprofitable by math. But the fact that rake exists has nothing to do with the fact that in any field of competition - everyone would be losers if everyone would be equal. 

Edited December 9, 2021 by Estzen

[Merenitsu]

@pinki @psrquack

What is the penalty?

I won the bet, but I am so angry.

 

[Merenitsu]

2 hours ago, Livertool said:

That is what i meant, you have to play at level when you have that edge over others. But overall poker is just like other gambling products, gives less back what is put in. Hypothetical situation were every player has equal skills makes all losers in long run.

You are absolutely right about that. You all read poker books, watch a lot of poker videos. Spend time learning strategies and so on. But how to explain that I won the long-running community tournament if you are all smarter than me. You all tell me to play for fun. That's it. I do not spend time on education in the form of theory, I spend in the form of practice. I can see now how many identical 3x raises are made, as soon as you raise to 3.5 they don't feel comfortable anymore. You can read a good book on what to do in this situation, but I adapt and will raise to 8 x. The truth is that it is either given from above or not. Everyone can learn to drive, but not everyone will become a Formula 1 racer😀

[FreedoM]

20 minutes ago, Merenitsu said:

You are absolutely right about that. You all read poker books, watch a lot of poker videos. Spend time learning strategies and so on. But how to explain that I won the long-running community tournament if you are all smarter than me. You all tell me to play for fun. That's it. I do not spend time on education in the form of theory, I spend in the form of practice. I can see now how many identical 3x raises are made, as soon as you raise to 3.5 they don't feel comfortable anymore. You can read a good book on what to do in this situation, but I adapt and will raise to 8 x. The truth is that it is either given from above or not. Everyone can learn to drive, but not everyone will become a Formula 1 racer😀

[ScaryOne]

sux to be me huh?

First time here. But dude.. Ill give you my honest opinion on your way of thinking. Try not to think about things you cannot change. Can you change what multiplier will drop? Nope - who cares. Just play your best in situation you are put and if you feel you played good, then its good. Results doesnt matter short term. And by short term I mean anything below 3-5k games is nothing. You can win some, you can lose some. Its all the same, as long as your game is good by your standards, you are doing good. If you "run bad" for longer than that. Its probably time to stop whining about shit and start to reevaluate the way you approach  things. You can run some simulations of variance - there are some tools on the internet so you can fool yourself longer and call yourself <1% unluckiest person in the world (been there, done that), but in reality.. You only can change yourself and improve yourself. Rest will come sooner or later. Make most +EV decisions for longrun if your bankroll even can hold "longrun". If not - use less +EV decisions that you can afford. But always think longrun not "f- me I hit 20 times in a row 1.5x". No one cares. 

Anyways.. Hope you are working on yourself as much as you are whining or "reporting" on this blog.. I hope in the end you find your way if you havent yet 🙂

[Estzen]

Community event, I wasnt there from the start and it doesnt matter as much because you are somehow finding that 20 games of "festival" some how prove the worthiness. Ive seen a downer, from a much better player than myself, with as long as 800 tourneys. The fact that you dont do the hard work makes the diffrence, why its you whos making the deposits and while those of us who do not evaluate ourselves by 20 games are not doing those deposits. But Well, I cannot blame you on dumping money, its your choice. Your a gambler and you like to gamble. If your community freeroll matters so much, why arent you at the top of UOS etc. 20 times came 1.5 multiplier 🙄, You lost all games . In a hexa.... You know even sats are less varience than these, I lost few days ago, almost every sat there is, but I undestand that having this run in one day, or even the next day or day after... doesnt matter in any sense when doing things right... I dont evaluate how many AA I got, bla bla bla, I dont even know how much did I got or did I miss. IT JUST DOESNT MATTER. All that matters is undestanding the knowledge about the game and having a strategy that is solid. 

You have been in this game for a long time, yet you cannot understand basics. I start to wonder how its even possible. 

Edited December 9, 2021 by Estzen

[Livertool]

36 minutes ago, Estzen said:

Ive seen a downer, from a much better player than myself, with as long as 800 tourneys

He/she didn't realize after lets say 200-300 tourny that he/she was way out his/hers league? Deep pockets are blessing 😄

[Estzen]

4 minutes ago, Livertool said:

He/she didn't realize after lets say 200-300 tourny that he/she was way out his/hers league? Deep pockets are blessing 😄

There is nothing out of his league in this, the guy is up over 90k with past 3 years. You guys just dont understand what varience is.

Edited December 9, 2021 by Estzen

[Livertool]

12 minutes ago, Estzen said:

You guys just dont understand what varience is.

Downswing over 800 tournies merely over variance? Maybe i don't.