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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@kokkini wrote:
Waiting next week, I am quite serious by saying that only results makes me happy enough, not action itself or close without (read goals->) results =)

In approx. 100 bets time you can start drawing some conclusions, even though variance will still be a factor with so relatively few bets Smile

It's the long-term Cash that matters Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

-1.52 units after the first four bets. Not the best start, but I'm actually pretty happy with 3 of the 4 bets. Believe I was right about the value in both the Huntelaar and Raffael bet. They both had chances to score and they more shots than expected. Freiburg didn't create much and made it a little difficult for Niederlechner. Despite him playing a decent game, I might have been a little too optimistic when estimating the chance for that bet.

I'll be back with more bets soon Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Result so far:
Bets: 4

Won: 1
Average bet value: 105
ROI: -38
Units: -1.52

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund - Over 3.5 goals - odds 2.55 CashCashCash

Because of a busy week, I'll only have time for a quick introduction to this bet.
An early bet on this match, as I expect the odds to slash as we get closer to kickoff. El Plastico was the most entertaining game in the first round. After the bad display against Dresden in the DFB Pokal, I was positively surprised by Leipzig in the game against Hoffenheim. Even though Leipzig were behind 2-1 with just 1 minute left to be played + injury time, they managed to get a draw, and looking at the chances and shots in the game, it wouldn't have been undeserved with a victory. The team showed great moral and some promising football on Hoffenheims part of the pitch. Defensively the team looked weak, and Compper and Orban is in my opinion one of the weakest CD's in the league. The team from Leipzig just signed Papadopoulos on a loan, and if he manages to find the old Papa we saw in Schalke, before his long injury break, he'll surely be a great addition to the Leipzig defensive. This if a very big if though, and even if he does start against Dortmund, it'll be his first game with the team, so it probably won't have much of a positive effect.
Dortmund played a decent game against Mainz and deserved the 2-1 victory. Like Leipzig, the team didn't look very strong defensively, and it looked much better when attacking. Young Passlack had a horrible game and Sokratis didn't impress either. It's not an easy thing to replace Hummels, but Bartra actually played a very decent game. No matter which 4 Tuchel decides to start with in the defense, Leipzig's chance of scoring looks good.
As long as Leipzig dare to play their own game and are not intimidated by playing against a club as big as Dortmund, I think we're in for a real treat with a lot of goals.

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
I estimate the chance of over 3.5 goals to be around 42 %, which gives a bet value of 107. Recommend 1 unit on this bet. 

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Result so far:
Bets: 4

Won: 1
Average bet value: 105
ROI: -38
Units: -1.52

FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München, 09/09 20:30 CET - Over 2.5 goals - odds 1.5 Cash

A real Bundesliga classic and the game of the 2nd "Spieltag". Bayern had a perfect start to the season with their 6-0 humiliation of Werder. Quite a contrast to Schalkes 1-0 defeat against Frankfurt. 
Another entertaining game with many goals is what we should expect from the game on Friday. A game with quite a lot of uncertainties.

This is a good bet because

  • Schalke looked very week in the defense against Frankfurt, and so have they done in the pre-season as well - particularly in the game against Bilbao they were struggling. Having been the best rated keeper in the Bundesliga for two consecutive years, by Kicker, Fährmann is of course a force to be reckoned with, but even he can't stop everything. Naldo had a horrible game against Frankfurt, and him and Höwedes clearly need more time to get to know each others game better. Caicara was, in my opinion, the worst player on the pitch, and I'm willing to go as far as saying there will for sure be changes in the back four. Despite Schalke having played a few different formations in the pre-season, including a 5-2-2-1, the German media expect Schalke to be starting with 4 defenders.
  • It's not only in the defense that we can expect changes in the starting 11. Geis and Aogo didn't convince on the DM, and I expect either Goretzka and Bentaleb or Stambouli and Bentaleb to be starting. Choupo is still not at 100 %, so it's likely that Kono will be starting as well. I'd also be surprised if Embolo doesn't get the chance from start, instead of di Santo. That means 5 new signings in the starting 11. Difficult to say what effect it'll have, but I don't expect Schalke to be any stronger defensively, than they were against Frankfurt. Possible that Baba will be starting as well, but I think Weinzierl will choose Kolasinac in a game where they're expected to be under so much pressure.
  • Lewandowski, Müller, Ribery. Not sure I need to say any more than this. Bayern have looked great when attacking, both in the pre-season and of course also against Werder. They weren't that convincing against Dortmund in the Super Cup, but they were very efficient. If Caicara should start, there's without doubt going to be good value in Ribery to score.
  • Despite failing to score, Schalke created some very decent chances and they could easily have scored two goals against Frankfurt - the first half was horrendous, but with Embolo, Baba and Bentaleb on the pitch, things started to look much better. Meyer, Bentaleb, Goretzka, Embolo, Konoplyanka, Choupo-Moting and Huntelaar can, on a good day, be quite a challenge, even to Bayern.

You might loose the bet because

  • Fährmann and Neuer are, in my (and Kicker's) opinion, the two best shot stoppers in the Bundesliga.
  • Even without Boateng, Bayern's defense is a bit intimidating.
  • Bayern are considerably stronger at home, scoring 3 goals on average at home and "just" 1.71 away (last season). Last season, Schalke conceded about the same number of goals at home, as they did away, but they scored slightly more at home (1.65, 1.35). 65 % of Schalkes home games had more than 2.5 goals. For Bayern away the number was only 53 %. Only looking at these statistics, it's difficult to see the value in this bet.
  • The many new Schalke signings in the starting 11 might turn out to be a positive thing for the team from Gelsenkirchen - can of course both be a good and a bad thing for the bet, depending on which part of the pitch they're stronger.

Expected lineups and team news

Schalke 04

I think a 5-2-2-1 formation is likely, but I'll listen to the German media and go with the usual 4-2-3-1.

Schalke against Bayern.PNG

Bayern München

Bayern against Schalke.PNG

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
I estimate the chance of over 2.5 goals to be 68 %, giving a bet value of 102.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Result so far:
Bets: 4

Won: 1
Average bet value: 105
ROI: -38
Units: -1.52

Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV, 10/09 15:30 CET - Hamburger to win - odds unknown

This is a bit of an alternative bet recommendation. The odds on the outcome is currently too low, but I expect it to increase close to kickoff. The odds opened at 8.25 but has slashed so it's currently at 7. I estimate the chance of winning the bet to be 12 %, and only recommend this bet if the odds increase to 8.5. As I'm not at all sure the odds will increase to this, I will wait with the written analysis - I might not have time for any written analysis at all, just so you know Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

Re: Betting on Hamburg

I analyzed the betting stats from the Bundesliga from 09/10 until 14/15. In the 5 seasons from 10/11 until 14/15 there have been 24 games where the road underdog had starting odds between 8 and 12 and the odds were reduced by at least -1,00. The underdog in question won 2 times, the game resulted in a draw 4 times and the home favorite won 18 times. Needless to say, it resulted in a huge negative ROI for the road dog. 7 years ago in 2009/10 the road dog won 3 times in such a situation.

From 09/10 until 14/15 there have been 45 games where the road dog had starting odds between 8 and 12 and the odds increased between 0,25 and 2,00. The road dog won 3 times, they drew 7 times and the home favorite won 35 times, resulting in a negative ROI of -35% for the away team.

I'm not knocking down your bet, I just want to advice you that stats are not really on your side in this case...

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@WuDu wrote:

Re: Betting on Hamburg

I analyzed the betting stats from the Bundesliga from 09/10 until 14/15. In the 5 seasons from 10/11 until 14/15 there have been 24 games where the road underdog had starting odds between 8 and 12 and the odds were reduced by at least -1,00. The underdog in question won 2 times, the game resulted in a draw 4 times and the home favorite won 18 times. Needless to say, it resulted in a huge negative ROI for the road dog. 7 years ago in 2009/10 the road dog won 3 times in such a situation.

From 09/10 until 14/15 there have been 45 games where the road dog had starting odds between 8 and 12 and the odds increased between 0,25 and 2,00. The road dog won 3 times, they drew 7 times and the home favorite won 35 times, resulting in a negative ROI of -35% for the away team.

I'm not knocking down your bet, I just want to advice you that stats are not really on your side in this case...


Interesting numbers, but I don't think they're very useful:
1. Statistical uncertainty pretty much makes the numbers useless - you need a much, much bigger sample size for these high odds. 2 draws ending with a win instead, and you've got a positive ROI. 
2. When it comes to odds compiling, a lot has changed since 09/10
3. What conclusion would you draw on the finding(s)? We know that, in general, the bookmakers are accurate when estimating the chance, and the vast majority of players will end up with a RTP equal to or less than the theoretical RTP. Would you then say that as soon as the chance of winning a 1X2 bet is estimated to be around 10 %, they're always wrong, and the chance is in fact less/betting on the favorite is always profitable?

I like these kind of stats, but should they be used for anything? I don't think so Smile

EDIT: disgusting avatar you've got Wink

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

Nice discussion we are having here, let me answer according to those 3 different points you made.

Point 1: That's correct, high odds and small sample size doesn't correlate with future success/failure, however that's the nature of the beast with only 306 games per season. But personally, I would feel much more confident if there had been a steady history of underdog wins in the Bundesliga.

Point 2:

You're closer to the betting business than I am, but this rather proves my point: If odds compiling has changed since 09 (for the better of the bookie), winning those high odds games should be much tougher for you in 2016.

Point 3:

Of course the bookmakers know what they're doing, otherwise they won't be in business for long, however giving my own statistical analysis, bookmakers are far from being perfect. Betting on the favorite in this case in the Bundesliga hasn't been really profitable as well (something like 2% ROI).

The conclusions I have drawn, is (1) to not bet on the Bundesliga Cheeky and (2) only bet when the odds are reasonable (between 2,00 and 4,00 give and take a little). Betting on really low odds favourites cannot be profitable long term and betting on high odds underdogs kills you with its variance.

Ps: Stubbe is that you?

 

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@WuDu wrote:

Nice discussion we are having here, let me answer according to those 3 different points you made.

Point 1: That's correct, high odds and small sample size doesn't correlate with future success/failure, however that's the nature of the beast with only 306 games per season. But personally, I would feel much more confident if there had been a steady history of underdog wins in the Bundesliga.

Point 2:

You're closer to the betting business than I am, but this rather proves my point: If odds compiling has changed since 09 (for the better of the bookie), winning those high odds games should be much tougher for you in 2016.

Point 3:

Of course the bookmakers know what they're doing, otherwise they won't be in business for long, however giving my own statistical analysis, bookmakers are far from being perfect. Betting on the favorite in this case in the Bundesliga hasn't been really profitable as well (something like 2% ROI).

The conclusions I have drawn, is (1) to not bet on the Bundesliga Cheeky and (2) only bet when the odds are reasonable (between 2,00 and 4,00 give and take a little). Betting on really low odds favourites cannot be profitable long term and betting on high odds underdogs kills you with its variance.

Ps: Stubbe is that you?


1. I understand you couldn't have done it differently, unless you included a lot more leagues and tried to make a general conclusion for football - again I don't think it'd be very valuable information Smile Two goals in 45 games is the difference between a horrible and a great ROI, in my opinion that's the only point needed Wink

2. This could be a long discussion Smile Has it become more difficult for a guy like me, who's just a bit of a geek, spending a lot of time watching games, reading news etc.? Not so sure. There will be possibilities, when the process is becoming more automated and less manual work is involved from the traders.

Your first conclusion: betting on the biggest markets will never be easy, and if someone asked me the question "I'm new to this game, can you teach me how make a profit on the Bundesliga", I'd say "forget about the Bundesliga. Focus on a smaller market like a few winter sports or handball". That being said, I've historically been able to make a profit.
Making a profit using just one bookmaker and trying to post at least 3-4 bets every week is a new thing to me though, and time will tell if I'm able to or not - so far I've been able to find value, but that might just be because I'm a bit rusty Smile

As long as there's value, I don't care about the odds or the chance of a short-term deficit Smile

EDIT: yes, that guy on the picture could have been me when I was younger Wink Is this you? Or maybe that's you? Wink

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

Yeah, I have a lot more stats on other leagues as well, however every league is different and unique, it simply doesn't make sense to mix different leagues like LaLiga, Serie A and Bundesliga together. Different styles, different climates, different public that is placing bets and so on.  Your 2 goal argument is correct, but it also works in the other direction as well. My point was simply to give you some added information about the Bundesliga. Let's see how that plays out...

I think we can agree that the typical "extreme" football fan from the Ruhrgebiet is not someone you want your daughter to marry. Very Happy Who's Schalke playing this year in the Europa League? Nothing like watching your favorite team play Vladivostok or Dynamo Minsk on Thursdays...Happy

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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