Flat or Progressive.

[GR1ZZL3R]

There are quite a few columns here showing what people are betting on, ⚽ 🥎 🏀 🏒etc,etc, but none on how we bet, so I thought I'd ask a few questions to see the views of some of you. 

• Are you a flat better, same stake every time no matter the odds?
• Do you bet bigger if you think there's better value?
• Do you bet bigger if you think you have a bigger edge?
• Do you use a progression, increasing the bet size with the bankroll size, or decreasing with a losing run?
• Do you vary your bet size according to the odds?
• Are you risk averse with your bankroll?
• Or go for it in a blaze of glory?

Personally I tend to the risk averse side, but this month have been making steady profits on the horseracing. I start flat betting but then kick in a progression with a losing run, gradually increasing stakes to try and recover current losses. I've been checking as I go, comparing flat stakes, progressive, Kelly Criteria ( a set % of the bankroll ) and suprisingly, to me anyway, there seems little difference in the end results. I think this is down to the winning run being positive and wonder if any of you have thoughts on this, mainly what do you do with a losing run?

Or do you have your own preferred way of betting.

Happy Punting. 

 

[psrquack]

I bet mostly live. Marks are 50c, 5, 50, reaching the limit/dropping down will change the amount of stake. If I have 10 on roll, then I bet with 5 no matter on odds, if I win 5 goes to br and start playing with the remaining 5. If the first bet was a losing one, then my next bet will be 1. In good case I split the winnings, 1 goes to br and I will try to cover the first  5 stake lose bet. If success then go to first step, if not, back to stake 1.

Long story short, I'm trying to manage my stack as limits in poker. X units for the level, stepping down and up if mark is there.

[FreedoM]

27 minutes ago, GR1ZZL3R said:

• Are you a flat better, same stake every time no matter the odds?
• Do you bet bigger if you think there's better value?
• Do you bet bigger if you think you have a bigger edge?
• Do you use a progression, increasing the bet size with the bankroll size, or decreasing with a losing run?
• Do you vary your bet size according to the odds?
• Are you risk averse with your bankroll?
• Or go for it in a blaze of glory?

• No!
• Yes!
• Yes!
• No! 🤦‍♂️
• No!
• No! 
• Yes! 🧨

 

 

[Stubbe-Unibet]

1 hour ago, GR1ZZL3R said:

Are you a flat better,

These days I'm a yolo bettor 😄

I used to do 1-5 units, value being the only factor influencing the stake. 

Never had strict bankroll management (used to have 4 units be about 1% of the bankroll). Today there's no bankroll management, as I only play for the entertainment 🙂

If you're playing with the goal of making long-term profit, you really should adjust the stake according to perceived value. I get the reasons behind flat betting though, and if you aren't that confident about your value estimations, it's definitely not a bad idea either.

[GR1ZZL3R]

1 hour ago, Stubbe-Unibet said:

 

If you're playing with the goal of making long-term profit, you really should adjust the stake according to perceived value. I get the reasons behind flat betting though, and if you aren't that confident about your value estimations, it's definitely not a bad idea either.

@Stubbe-Unibet The goal is indeed long term profit but as a fun punter, starting with low stakes and seeing where it goes. Last year I read two books on betting which I recommend to any aspiring punter, but they do show how very difficult it is to make a long term profit at any "gambling" endeavour, be it poker, sports, stocks or whatever.

He's not a fan of progressions, arguing that if you're a losing punter no progression will help, but I yet remain to be convinced.

The Kelly Criteria seems to be the safest way to go, far less risk of ruin but much harder to pull back while losing, and one of his latest threads concerns betting Kelly Criteria and adjusting stakes even if you don't know your edge, something I definitely don't. I pick my horses to the same criteria but prices vary from evens favourite (I automatically dismiss odds on shots) and so far up to 14/1 outsiders, and having no idea wether the prices provide an edge tend to flat betting with gradual increases. As I'm making steady profit for the time being I'll probably stick to that but would welcome any more ideas from all you sharps out there. 🤓

Happy Punting. 🐎 

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by GR1ZZL3R