Purps Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 Tuesday resultsSmall profit. NHL was a lot better which is nice to see. Modest day on KHL bets though.52 returned on 51 bets 🆗:Peace: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pittpitt Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 with these type of odds , i believe you better go for system bet double treble over 5 to 8 pick what you think ? i mean...very short term your strategy has proven to be fair, but long terms it seems that the deficit is inevitable...also it has been showed that you have to take a calculated high risk bet in order to be profitable...I was looking on a forum recently , they promoted betting on sports for beginner that really wanted to be ahead....and they where shoving 'this guy' that guy...ROI stakes + 5 % 4% 6% back...so their top guy win overall their stake + 4,5,6 % ! that means their lines picking is very good and their stake is really high ! i think that from that to time you have to take cheap risk for high return ...it will probably do the tricks for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 Wednesday 17.10Not a lot of matches today. 18 bets:👍 @pittpitt@pittpitt wrote:with these type of odds , i believe you better go for system bet double treble over 5 to 8 pick what you think ? i mean...very short term your strategy has proven to be fair, but long terms it seems that the deficit is inevitable...also it has been showed that you have to take a calculated high risk bet in order to be profitable...If the single bets, and therefore also the picks, are losing, turning them into accumulator or system bets don't make the picks profitable. You'll just go broke quicker. Sure you can get lucky and make a sixfold that wins huge, but most likely you will go broke trying to find one that hits.I don't like going broke, so I choose the slow route.@pittpitt wrote: I was looking on a forum recently , they promoted betting on sports for beginner that really wanted to be ahead....and they where shoving 'this guy' that guy...ROI stakes + 5 % 4% 6% back...so their top guy win overall their stake + 4,5,6 % ! that means their lines picking is very good and their stake is really high ! Not sure if I totally understand what you are trying to say here, but the last line caught my eye ... Whatever someones ROI% is, has nothing to do with how high or low that persons stakes are.But, as said, I also may misunderstood most of that one :wonder:@pittpitt wrote: i think that from that to time you have to take cheap risk for high return ...it will probably do the tricks for you If ( big if ) I start doing a little better and actually get on the profit side of thing with these slightly less variance having odds, I probably start doing some sort of a system/acca to go with the singles, in order to take a shot on a "bigger prize" as you suggest here.I'm a long way from that right now though... glgl 👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pittpitt Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 @Purps wrote: Wednesday 17.10Not a lot of matches today. 18 bets:👍 @pittpitt@pittpitt wrote: with these type of odds , i believe you better go for system bet double treble over 5 to 8 pick what you think ? i mean...very short term your strategy has proven to be fair, but long terms it seems that the deficit is inevitable...also it has been showed that you have to take a calculated high risk bet in order to be profitable...If the single bets, and therefore also the picks, are losing, turning them into accumulator or system bets don't make the picks profitable. You'll just go broke quicker. Sure you can get lucky and make a sixfold that wins huge, but most likely you will go broke trying to find one that hits.I don't like going broke, so I choose the slow route.@pittpitt wrote: I was looking on a forum recently , they promoted betting on sports for beginner that really wanted to be ahead....and they where shoving 'this guy' that guy...ROI stakes + 5 % 4% 6% back...so their top guy win overall their stake + 4,5,6 % ! that means their lines picking is very good and their stake is really high ! Not sure if I totally understand what you are trying to say here, but the last line caught my eye ... Whatever someones ROI% is, has nothing to do with how high or low that persons stakes are.But, as said, I also may misunderstood most of that one :wonder:@pittpitt wrote: i think that from that to time you have to take cheap risk for high return ...it will probably do the tricks for you If ( big if ) I start doing a little better and actually get on the profit side of thing with these slightly less variance having odds, I probably start doing some sort of a system/acca to go with the singles, in order to take a shot on a "bigger prize" as you suggest here.I'm a long way from that right now though... glgl 👍 @pittpitt wrote: I was looking on a forum recently , they promoted betting on sports for beginner that really wanted to be ahead....and they where shoving 'this guy' that guy...ROI stakes + 5 % 4% 6% back...so their top guy win overall their stake + 4,5,6 % ! that means their lines picking is very good and their stake is really high ! Not sure if I totally understand what you are trying to say here, but the last line caught my eye ... Whatever someones ROI% is, has nothing to do with how high or low that persons stakes are.But, as said, I also may misunderstood most of that one :wonder:I was probably tired when i wrote that line lol....i was trying to say-their lines picking is really good -and the edge is really small ! to resume- system bet double trble ...is still accumulating odd's so, therefore it could cut your small lost to break even + ! maybe my pov is wrong ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 Wednesday resultsNot much good to say about yesterdays bets:18 bets returned a not good at all 3,45 :popeye:😠:Peace: @pittpitt@pittpitt wrote:I was probably tired when i wrote that line lol....i was trying to say-their lines picking is really good -and the edge is really small !Yeah, edges aren't huge, if someone has 110% ROI ( or 10% profit ) over a long run, that's really good. It may seem like a small number to some that aren't very familiar with math side of sports betting, but with a proper bankroll management, and enough bet's to be made every day, it'll give a nice return and increase the bankroll surprisingly fast.@pittpitt wrote: to resume- system bet double trble ...is still accumulating odd's so, therefore it could cut your small lost to break even + ! maybe my pov is wrong !Bottom line is, if the picks are losing ones, they will still be losing ones on the long run, no matter how you bet on them. Turning single bets into doubles and/or trebles just adds variance to the picture, which of course could go either way. And if the goal is to make steady profit, variance is the enemy and we don't want him around, if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pittpitt Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 @Purps wrote: Wednesday resultsNot much good to say about yesterdays bets:18 bets returned a not good at all 3,45 :popeye:😠:Peace: @pittpitt@pittpitt wrote:I was probably tired when i wrote that line lol....i was trying to say-their lines picking is really good -and the edge is really small !Yeah, edges aren't huge, if someone has 110% ROI ( or 10% profit ) over a long run, that's really good. It may seem like a small number to some that aren't very familiar with math side of sports betting, but with a proper bankroll management, and enough bet's to be made every day, it'll give a nice return and increase the bankroll surprisingly fast.@pittpitt wrote: to resume- system bet double trble ...is still accumulating odd's so, therefore it could cut your small lost to break even + ! maybe my pov is wrong !Bottom line is, if the picks are losing ones, they will still be losing ones on the long run, no matter how you bet on them. Turning single bets into doubles and/or trebles just adds variance to the picture, which of course could go either way. And if the goal is to make steady profit, variance is the enemy and we don't want him around, if possible.that's true ,double treble ...double trble your variance! because of that is't a must to arrange your bet accordingly to diminish the variance in the bet vs optimal immediate return for the bet's!i think the way you bet is 1 good way to see it/bet it ..like the anaheim vs islanders which is the worse team in the league ...it is probably a good example, now we know the final score...but even now , the best bet was islanders to not score more than 1 or 0 goals,anaheim handicap 1 ....2 probably too much cause anaheim don't score a lot of goals ! but the odds wasn't big enough so you pass on it...i mean ultimately these high odds picking is really hard to quantify because of all the variable involve,,,that need's a tone of follow to be in toutch on the game you betting ! idk is't reachable imo is't gotta be a mix of both high & /mid low / low odds route well balanced 40 60 60 40 ,30 70 70 30 ? i dunno...so easy to fall into the non-sense high route !hey hehe we talking trying to increase value in the bet we make...'once written ' it makes a lot more sense ...for me anyways lol and yeah calgary at home vs boston ,, that was a total flip..a bet to be avoided i didn't it myself :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GR1ZZL3R Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 @pittpitt @Purps I used to do the trebles and upwards and win occasionally but it does increase your variance quite a bit so I've settled on singles only for the time being. I'm not doing too well at the moment but I'm checking out a staking system. Basically it involves small increases in stake following losers, trying to hit profit or reduce losses, and betting slightly more on the shorter prices and less on the outsiders. I know that ultimately chasing losses can be a dangerous game so I'm definitely setting a stop loss, if I reach that I'll just go back to min stakes again. Any thoughts from you guys? "It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pittpitt Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 @GR1ZZL3R wrote: @pittpitt @Purps I used to do the trebles and upwards and win occasionally but it does increase your variance quite a bit so I've settled on singles only for the time being. I'm not doing too well at the moment but I'm checking out a staking system. Basically it involves small increases in stake following losers, trying to hit profit or reduce losses, and betting slightly more on the shorter prices and less on the outsiders. I know that ultimately chasing losses can be a dangerous game so I'm definitely setting a stop loss, if I reach that I'll just go back to min stakes again. Any thoughts from you guys? good new @GR1ZZL3R ..im working on it for 1 year and because you asking, imma tell you the secret's :P JK not quit there's yet...but it is processing like a huge withdraw into our's bank account lolto be honest,is't gotta your best pick in diff part of the spectrum...but i dunno how many diff part in particular...at least 3 low med high .putt double in your treble ..sing double in treble..you see what i'm saying? that's all i got for today bro @GR1ZZL3R.:rockon:♠️.going to sleep.@purps as likely something nice stuff to add Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 Thursday 18.10Thursday KHL ( 27 bets ):👍 @GR1ZZL3R @pittpitt I need to run... Have to read your posts and possibly answer later on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 @GR1ZZL3R wrote: I'm checking out a staking system. Basically it involves small increases in stake following losers, trying to hit profit or reduce losses, and betting slightly more on the shorter prices and less on the outsiders. I know that ultimately chasing losses can be a dangerous game so I'm definitely setting a stop loss, if I reach that I'll just go back to min stakes again. Any thoughts from you guys? @GR1ZZL3RI do not like the stake increase after a losing bet. To me that seems just a variation of the Martingale system.Betting more on lower odds and less on higher ones makes sense though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GR1ZZL3R Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 @Purps I really hope our community has more sense than to try the bankroll killer martingale. 😠I think they're suggesting gradual increases at pre-set levels.😃 I'll stick with my sliding scale for the time being, good advice.👍 "It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 Thursday NHL:Thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 Thursday resultsAnother crappy day. Broke even on NHL but KHL was miserable 😞Close to the 1000 bets now, which was planned to be the point of deciding whether things are going well or not. The answer is a clear "not".I still won't give up though, but I think I'll be doing just one bet a match, unless there's a really good idea on it. Trying to squeeze in from 2 to 4 bets a game apparently ain't my thing. Not sure if even making one bet a game is something I can do profitably, but I'm still notquite done with this thread, so I'll keep it alive just for some more time, just with less picks...:Peace: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GR1ZZL3R Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 I hope it picks up @Purps and I'm pretty sure you'll be on the right track being more selective in your bets. I'm a believer in quality not quantity and maybe because I don't know enough about some sports I can't see how there can be more than 1 or 2 value bets in one game. I could do like the majority of "mug" punters and try to pick the winner of every race, but that will never work. Do you monitor your results and see where the winners are coming from, if one type of bet is more consistant than another? I'm constantly checking all the race winners to see if I've overlooked an opportunity or backed something I shouldn't, just because. Best of luck and we'll crack this together.👍 "It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 Friday 19.10Euro hockey, 9 matches, 9 bets:👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 :Thumbsup: @GR1ZZL3R wrote:Do you monitor your results and see where the winners are coming from, if one type of bet is more consistant than another?@GR1ZZL3R Thanks buddy. I helped Mareks with his spreadsheet and I have all the formulas sort of done to get separate stats for all the different leagues and bet types and so on. I just have to put it all together for my purposes. I'm away from home now for couple of weeks but I'll get it done when I get back home, if not earlier...Run good with them horsies my friend :Thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GR1ZZL3R Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Thanks @Purps enjoy whatever you're doing or wherever you're going.👍 "It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marekss Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 @GR1ZZL3R He done amazing work, it's easy now put in one place, plus I add filter on, now I sort out LAL team and get all information about bets since day one! @Purps Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 Friday results"The start of a new era" wasn't too bad. 15,90 returned on 13 bets:Lots of matches today... I'll try to hold myself to just 1 bet/match, if possible 👼:peace: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 Saturday 20.1011 bets on European hockey:👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhdada Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Nice if you bet all the predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 13:00 CET Spanish LaLigaReal Madrid - Levante: asian total: Under 2 @ 8,50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 17 bets on football:👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRE Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Barcelona-Sevilla under 3Angers over 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purps Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 14 bets on NHL to finish off the day... :👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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