GR1ZZL3R

Move made,👍

But maybe time to make a move. 🤔

Keep it going! 🤩

NICE!

Reached 2nd break, smallish stack but still going.

GL, I’ve got you on the iPad but watching tv to so can’t really concentrate too well. First time I’ve looked at these tables on a Sunday, they look good. 😁

Hope you get things sorted, GL. 🍀

I couldn't wake you up, sorry. 😭

@Nestabear WHY? Judging by the time of the game you have been sleeping the whole tourney! 😱

You do seem to know a lot with very little actual evidence but I suppose if you know, then, well, you know. What I know is that when someone comes on a site making spurious statements with little or no evidence and someone calls him out for it, the speed with which they then resort to making personal comments rather than counter arguments is inversely proportional to their intellectual capacity for rational discourse. You appear to now hold the record for straying into unwarranted territory, suggesting that your arguments are poorly constructed and have very little correlation to facts.

Dear Lee, Your little boy may indeed know more about poker than me, many people do, but since he's not entered this conversation I have to address your comments not his, unless he's telling you what to write? You may not need me to explain variance to you, there are far more competent people that could do that if you wanted, but have you really been studying variance a long time? Just playing millions of hands of a game is not necessarily actually studying a somewhat related topic. How do you know all these sites have different algorithms, have you hand histories to back up these assertions or do you just know? Just saying it's random is not good enough, can you give a concrete example of how it's not random so we can rule out confirmation bias? It is a fact that more hands like AA v KK happen online, it's also a fact that millions billions more hands are played online so it would be very strange if that were not the case. Can't you see that you're not comparing like for like, so... how many times have you had AA v KK online and how many times AA v KK in live play? If we get some actual numbers we can start comparing, not actual numbers but maybe ratios or percentages or something. As for the proven anomalies in online poker can you point me to some credible sources, just saying something is doesn't mean it is. If I don't know then I don't know, correct, but I suspect you don't either, and as for the truth, well who really knows? I didn't misquote you but I admit I may have misinterpreted your statement. Actually I could have because in your opening thread you said, and I quote: Now you're saying, and I quote: There's an anomaly there somewhere, maybe the algorithm needs working on, but it sure confuses me.

Dear Lee, Just because you won your first tournament does not mean you should expect to keep winning, variance is much more fickle than that. It's almost as bad as expecting a dead heating horse to pay out as much as an uncontested winner. Yours sincerely, Keyboard Warrior Twat.

Thirty one days in and up to the next step, the €2 qualifiers. I began them by playing from the start and in most of them I got a larger stack than I would have by late regging, so far so good. Unfortunately variance is not on my side, three sixth place finishes, a seventh and an eighth, with one early exit means no conversions, and the ROI taking a massive hit. 🤢 Not much more to say really except I won another 40c consolation instead of a ticket so my total buy ins actually stand at €2.82, I actually played through a centroll and won another €2 ticket, and formatting the hours played in the time column was a bit of a bugger! Got there in the end though. Timing of the buy ins is now important as I'll be off next week so I'll have to make sure each ticket will have 9 or 10 days left on them, ( I might even be extremely bad and have none left to come back to) who the hell wants to play poker when on holiday? I might check out the casino while I'm there though.

It was indeed a very good final providing both great open break building and some excellent safety play, even including the first 147 in a final. Ultimately the "young gun" triumphed over the "old boy," not the newcomer I expected to win but a fantastic performance. I suppose you could say Lucca is the epitome of "it's never over," winning 7 in a row against Ronnie and 11 in a row against Si to turn around seemingly unpromising situations. Mark Selby produced his own mini fightback to get within 1 frame from 16-10 down but in the end it was just too far even for him. Great Snooker.

The story so far. @Lee B thought his bet had been settled incorrectly. This is typical mistakes by punters, lord knows I've made enough of them in my time, probably this very one, so I pointed out where I thought his error was. Then I received a private message. And here's me thinking I'd been helpful. Many years ago I tentatively suggested to a work colleague that he may want to share some of the extra money he had earned through me donating three hours of my time and effort to help him out of a tricky situation (when I could have headed home and put my feet up) I was called a "grasping avaricious bastard," up till now my favourite nickname. "Keyboard warrior twat" has a certain ring to it which I almost feel like adopting, but before I do so here is something I urge you to read Lee B. Maybe you should look up big words or phrases and try to understand whether they are describing yourself rather than someone else before using them. Further recommended reading.

Two polar opposite semi finals saw two polar opposite types of players reach this years World Championship final. Luca Brecel pulled off the first ever comeback from 9 frames behind with his toe to toe battle against the young Si Jiahui with a superb display of attacking snooker, winning 11 frames in a row from 14-5 down and ultimately scraping through 17-15, following a 7 frame streak in the quarter final against Ronnie O'Sullivan. Meanwhile the "Iron Man" Mark Selby played his own brand of rather less risky more calculating brand of snooker to eventually overcome another tough opponent in Mark Allen. Momentum kept shifting in this one but Selby's brand of opponent denying methods proved too much for the tenacious Allen. And so to a two day final between two very different players. Selby is the ultimate seen everything done everything not the most naturally gifted but hard as nails grafter who can tie an opponent up for what seems like forever, versus the younger, hugely talented Brecel, who claims to have had virtually no practice before this championship. One semi was a slugfest, one a grindfest, both watchable for different reasons, and the fact the final is contested by two players of hugely contrasting styles could make this years extraordinary championship even more watchable. The bookies have Selby a clear favourite, I'm just on his side but it won't surprise me whoever wins, I'm just looking forward to enjoying it.

To me this looks like another example of a punter not knowing the rules and being disappointed when a payout doesn't seem to meet expectations. Most bookmakers treat dead heats the same and it looks like UB have done so. So £20 on a 5/2 winner pays £70. Half this amount, £35, wins at 11/10 paying £73.50, the other half loses, so a total payout of £73.50 is correct. Disappointing but correct according to the rules.😢

A steady morning session saw Mark Allen come through against a very tenacious Jak Jones, who appeared to run out of steam at the very end but has shown he may be a force to reckon with in the future. A remarkable session of snooker in the afternoon when Luca confirmed he can indeed look like a world beater. Ronnie continued making mistakes but this time Luca swept up everything with an almost unprecedented degree of skill and accuracy, winning 7 frames on the trot, playing as if every shot was of no importance and with the freedom to attempt almost anything. Breathtaking! I didn't watch much of the evening session, being preoccupied by a minor Premier League match, but apparently Mark Selby continued in the manner we've grown accustomed to, a lot more emphatic victory over John Higgins that many expected. The final four was made up by debutante Si Jiahui, the first to reach this stage since 1995 and the youngest player since 1996 (Ronnie). This one went all the way Si winning 13-12 and keeping a remarkable composure under pressure for one so young. That leaves an interesting situation now with the two experienced "old boys" Mark and Mark facing each other and the two "young guns" Luca and Si battling it out. My favourite player left is Mark Selby, a similar type of player to how I used to be, (but slightly better) give them nothing and chip away, but are we about to see a resurgence of the younger generation after seeing a few older heads winning recently. Still one former World Champion left, but 3 "newbies" left. OK. It could be Mark and Luca... or Mark and Si... or Luca and Mark... or Si and Mark. Allen and Brecel.

Ronnie looks to be home and hosed against Luca when in reality he's not playing all that well and at times Luca looks like the world beater. Unfortunately another unthinking lash out when snookered shows that there's something missing in the mental game for Luca, doing something that Ronnie gave up years ago and something that Mark Selby has probably never done in his life, the difference between World Champions and wannabees. All the other games are nicely balanced and it could ell be a late night finish tonight, plenty of twists and turns to come I feel. No walking programme for me, a long day in front of the snooker only interrupted by the small matter of a Premier League match. Ali Barker.

Last year I correctly predicted all 4 quarter finals, both semi-finals and the final match results but not having posted them here I feel they don't count. 😢 This year I'm undecided and judging by the 7th frame of Ronnie v Luca I have good reason to be. Luca missed an absolute "gimmee" blue into the middle, Ronnie totally fluked the last red when playing safe to leave Luca needing snookers, Luca just smashed at the yellow as if he'd given up, (is he already beaten mentally? I'd be surprised if he was) then got a snooker, Ronnie then fouled a black with his sleeve or waistcoat, virtually unprecedented, and finally Luca played a poor positional shot when looking the winner. My impression is that there seems to be fewer frames won in one visit, adding to the uncertainty but also the drama and entertainment. Great play from Bark Selby. 🤣

So we move into quarter finals territory, with 3 World Champions left and two debutants still standing. I tend to look for value amongst the underdogs but this time I can see all 4 favourites winning. Possibly the best match could be between Ronnie and Luca, but John and Mark could provide a classic. I can't see Si winning but the odds suggest it might be closer than I think and my top tip Mark Allen should be strong enough to beat Jak. I think it's more open than any recently and it's hard to definitely discount more than two of them.