US elections

[WuDu]

Trump now at 5.00 at Unibet. Incredible value, but I'd hold off a little for now and see how the election process develops. If you follow the wikileaks podesta emails, which are now being released daily, you can clearly see that a lot of things I said for the last 6 weeks are true:

Mainstream media in bed with the Clinton campaign, even her own staffers admitting their campaign lacks message and positivity, Clintons being corrupt to the bone, and so on...But one of my favorites was how Bernie Sanders and his followers have been completely taken for a ride.

The latest Rasmussen poll had Hillary leading Trump by 7 %-points on Monday and today Trump leads with 2 %-points nationwide. Within the margin of error, but it shows who won the debate on Sunday. 

Knowing that there's much more to come, of course CNN, NBC, NYT and WaPo will do everything in their power to deflect from wikileaks, I feel pretty good about my bets taken at 3,25 and 3,4. Poor timing? Absolutely yes, but still valuable...

[Magicadil]

New audio leak shows Trump saying to a very underage girl 'In 10 years I'll be marrying you'

Two women have come forward (One who is now 70) with very detailed claims of sexual assault by Trump.

New leaks also have massive evidence of Trump going into women's dressing rooms (During Miss Teen USA) just to look at naked women. There were lots of 14-15 years in there.

Aren't you ashamed of yourself for supporting this guy? Do you support these actions by Loser Donald and/or do you also participate in these activities?

It's very telling of your character if you continue to support a monster like this.

[WuDu]



LOL.

 

[tomek009966]

Why was my post deleted? :sad:

[BonusPater]

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@tomek009966 wrote:

Why was my post deleted? :sad:

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Too much of the post was copy and paste, which we unfortunately can't allow for copyright reasons (also bad for search engine optimization) :)

On a general note: it's not allowed to discuss politics on the community. As evident from this and other threads, it's not like we have a zero-tolerance policy - especially not if it's betting related - but political discussions generally tend to turn into something negative and ugly very quickly. There're plenty of other platforms to discuss politics :)

[BonusPater]

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@WuDu wrote:

@testuser1

538 has been bought by ESPN, which belongs to Disney-ABC, which is part of the liberal/globalist mainstream media opposing Trump. I'd take those predictions with a grain of salt, especially if you consider that 538 gave every swing state except Nevada to Clinton.

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I get your point, considering some of the recent leaks from wikileaks. On the other hand I don't really think it makes sense, given they're not the ones to do the polls, and their methodology is available. If you question their methodology, I'm all ears - I personally find their predictions pretty reliable, as reliable as anything can be in this crazy and ridiculous election.

Regarding the winner of the second debate, you might be right, but I'll use the same argument as you did earlier: the polls are heavily affected by so many other things in this election, so it's difficult to conclude anything solely based on the candidate percentages in a few polls. That being said, Trump hasn't done better in all national polls since the second debate:

Fox News: 

• Before debate: leader: Clinton +2, adjusted leader: Clinton +4
• After debate: leader: Clinton +7, adjusted leader: Clinton +8

The Times-Picayune/Lucid:

• Before debate: Clinton +8, adjusted leader: Clinton +7
• After debate: Clinton +8, adjusted leader: Clinton +6

Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research

• Before debate: Clinton +7, adjusted leader: Clinton +10
• After debate: Trump+2, adjusted leader: tie

Note that the historical accuracy and methodology of Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research is pretty bad whereas it's pretty good for Fox News - possibly the only time you'll hear me say something good about Fox News :)

Especially given Rasmussens polls for this election, the results should be taken with a grain of salt (they all should, only be combining all polls, you'll get a decent idea about the trend). Just have a look at the below graph - further comments shouldn't be necessary :)

Now it mind sound like I'm saying "don't bet on Trump", but that's actually not the case. As mentioned not too long ago, I do think it's beginning to look interesting with these high odds, Trumps performance in the most recent debate and the recent development. The odds was 5 yesterday, which I do think had value (I'll give him around 21-22 % chance right now). It's down to 4.5 today, which might still have a bit of value, but it's not a bet I'm going to place :)

EDIT: I don't want to recommend other sites, but Betfair got 6.5 on Trump = massive value, even if we use more conservative estimations.

[WuDu]



Nice discussion this is turning out to be. Regarding the polls: I know that Rasmussen had Romney winning in 2012, however that wasn't my point. My point was the 9 %-point shift in Trump's favor from Monday till Wednesday. But since you brought up the Fox news poll, this is not a left vs. right election, a lot of people, especially on the left, think so, but they are wrong. This is a regular people vs establishment election. Fox News owned by the Murdoch family is probably as much against Trump as CNN, NBC, the NYT or the WaPo.

I'll show you how Fox manipulates the data so that Trump looks worse and Hillary looks better:

That's the poll data. On page 22 you see the question whether the polled population thinks of themselves as Democrat or Republican. Early September the ratio was 40 % Democrats/39 % Republicans, late September it was 42/38, early October it was 41/39 and the latest poll had them 45/36. You see where this is going? From October 10th, Fox polled 1.006 people, 453 consider themselves Democrats and 362 consider themselves Republicans. Fox polled 25% more Democrats than Republicans, of course those 91 Democrats are more likely to vote for Hillary.

Fox identified 917 likely voters, amongst likely voters, Hillary leads 41-40 in early September, 43-40 in late September, 44-42 in early October and 45-38 in the latest poll. Do you see the pattern? Her poll numbers go up (like in late Sep and in mid Oct) when more Democrats are polled.

In the latest poll 413 (917*0,45) people said they likely vote for Clinton, 348 (917*0,38) said they likely vote for Trump. Despite polling 91 more Democrats than Republicans, Hillary only leads with 65 votes. :Wow:

Let's take it one step further and extrapolate those numbers, early October Fox polled with a ratio of 41/39. Amongst 1,006 people that would mean 412 Democrats and 392 Republicans, 20 (5 %) more Democrats.

In early October, Hillary lead by 44/42. For 917 likely voters, that means 403 votes for Hillary and 385 Votes for Trump.   

Let me make it even clearer:

In early October befor the tape and the debate, in a poll consisting of 1006 people with 917 likely voters there would have been 412 Democrats and 403 votes for Hillary. And 392 Republicans and 385 votes for Trump. Hillary gets a 20 people head start and finishes 18 votes ahead---> without handicap Trump beats her by 2 votes.

In the latest poll after debate and tape, Hillary gets a 91 people head start and finsihes 65 votes ahead-----> without handicap Trump beats her by 26 votes.

Now, why do you think the masses are being manipulated like that? Because Hillary is such a great candidate and leads? I don't think so...

[Magicadil]

BREAKING NEWS:

Video of Rapist/Terrorist/Racist Loser Donald flirting with pre teen has been released. At 2:50 but entire video is a good watch:

Also, two Kansas men charged with raping a Sheriff Deputy. Both were die hard Trump fans.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3833718/Two-men-24-21-charged-case-sheriff-s-deputy-kidnapped-raped-two-hours-taken-parking-lot-jail-worked.html

See the influence Trump has on the unintelligent/easily misguided? He even stated he likes the unintelligent.

The wheels have fallen off of Trump's campaign (They were never really on in the first place).

As Hillary famously stated, which by the way are very true words, 'Trump Supporters are a basket of deplorables'

[WuDu]

Hi guys,

Little round up for this week and a look ahead for the next few days. Trump is back up to 5,00 and presenting immense value but like I said, if you plan to place a bet, you'd be better off waiting and observing the election process. One thing that will be a steady flow of information and a thorn in the side of the mainstream media and the Clinton campaign is wikileaks. To me this is like real life "House of Cards".

It's funny how the mainstream media in the US tries to divert attention by ignoring/downplaying them and trotting out fake Trump grope victims instead.Those emails are far, far worse than Watergate, however back then, the Washington Post uncovered the truth instead of feeding the public propaganda and lies. I wouldn't be surprised if they take it one step further next week and "report" on alleged child molestation, child abuse or other forms of physical violence.

Too bad there's twitter, facebook and reddit and at least 68 % of the US population distrusts the MSM , so what's next? 

The third and final debate takes place on Wednesday. During the first debate Hillary was carried by the NBC moderator and only managed a draw, during the 2nd debate Trump won big time, despite debating against her and the two moderators from CNN and ABC. This time the debate takes place on FOX, which doesn't bode well for Hillary. I'm expecting a big victory for Trump and a bigger spin from CNN with cooked polls like I explained above, so maybe the odds for Trump will rise again on Thursday as they did after debates 1 and 2.

 

   

[Magicadil]

" fake Trump grope victims" We shouldn't say they're fake. That's why women are scared to come forward. They have to go through the traumatic experience then have people tell them they're lying.

A lot has happened in the past 24 hours:

Trump's son stated Women who don't like sexual harassment don't belong in the work force. (Wonder where he got that outlook)

Christian Liberty University students (Who massively favor Republicans) have pulled their support for Trump. Say Trump is a terrible representation of America.

 

I'm just here posting facts to keep potential bettors from wasting their money on Trump. The odds (5.00) are extremely low in terms of his actual chances of winning the election.

[tomek009966]

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@Stubbe-Unibet wrote:

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... but political discussions generally tend to turn into something negative and ugly very quickly. 

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@testuser1  You’re absolutely right. ,,United we stand, divided we fall". 😃

[WuDu]

Wow, I feel the US has turned into a full blown banana republic:

Wikileaks states that the US government pressured Ecuador to cut Assange off from the internet. And now they throw child porn accusations at him, to stop the release of more wikileaks emails.

Yesterday,

caught people of the Clinton campaign on camera laying out in detail how they hire goons and pay mentally ill people and bums to start riots outside of Trump rallies, like what happened this March in Chicago and Arizona. The funniest thing was, how those Clinton agitators dressed up as Bernie Sanders supporters, talk about killing two birds with one stone.

Today after Barry Obama criticized Trump of "whining about an unfair election",

were caught on camera telling how they committed massive voter fraud for the DNC.

Meanwhile, CNN, Twitter, Google and co actively surpress these news by not reporting at all or deleting the respective trending topics.

For my bets on Trump this is almost as good as it gets, as it plays right into the Trump campaigns claim that the election (process) is rigged. For the sake of my bankroll :Cool: I hope he points that out during the debate and urges the people at home to research themselves because this is a topic that mobilizes people to vote.

Right now, Trump to win stands at 5.50 and he'll clearly win the third and final debate. Of course CNN will spin the results by oversampling Democrats in their post debate poll, which could lead to more bettors from Europe placing money on Clinton. 

 

[GotWhatItTakes]

What amount of money did you bet on Trump?

[WuDu]

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@GotWhatItTakes wrote:

What amount of money did you bet on Trump?

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@GotWhatItTakes

Don't know whether I'm going to publish that here in absolute terms, maybe if the bet wins, I'll do. But currently a little over 21 % of my Unibet bankroll is invested in those Trump bets. It's definitely not life changing money if he pulls off the upset, but if he does, I can easily play the SNG25. If he loses, it'll definitely hurt, but I won't fall into depression, as I have already won back the money playing SNG10 and I would have lost maybe 3 weeks of profit at SNG10.

Since I had a great run recently playing SNG10, I'm thinking about reloading another time, since the odds are so juicy at 5.00 now and the wikileaks are getting worse and worse. But 21 % of my bankroll is already awful lot. I'll watch the debate and see how the odds look like tomorrow or on Friday... 

[jerry]

Damn, odd of 5.00 is freakin terrific if you ask me. I mean he can still lose, but its 50-50 race for me. Still, maybe bookies knows more (like they always do). I will definately put some money on Trump, this will be brutal election to the end.

[Magicadil]

 It is definitely not 50/50. His odds are around 3-5% although the bookies are giving him a 20% to win. Hillary vs Trump is similar to Mike Tyson vs a high school kid whose never thrown a punch before. This is going to end horrendously for Trump.

[WuDu]

Great performance by President Trump yesterday and another debate win. Trump was a little better during the townhall debate, but he still delivered a nice performance and most importantly, managed to stay on point (wikileaks, rigged election process, Clinton corruption) and avoided most of the baiting from her part. Hillary at times was shook and with her fake smile and her funny suit, she looked more like Dr Evil/ a random James Bond villain. 🤣

Also, I cannot believe I for once anticipated the odds movement correctly: Trump won the debate, CNN put its spin on afterwards, Euro media takes over the CNN narrative and their fake poll numbers and his odds to win went from 5.00 to 5.50. I had a great day playing SNG10 yesterday and if the odds climb to 6,00, I'm placing another slighly smaller bet. In case the odds hover around 5.00, I'll wait and see how the next few days play out.

Regarding the debates: I find it absolutely amazing that the Democratic ticket didn't happen to win even 1 out of the 4 debates. The MSM tried to sell anybody that Hillary is such an experienced debater, she took almost a week off to rest before every event to memorize her lines and that's the best she can offer?  

Yesterday's debate was rather boring, a lot of stuff has been said before, however you could clearly see what difference it makes if the moderator is not debating on Hillary's side as well. The MSM now tries to frame Trump as un-democratic since he mentioned that he's not accepting a rigged election. That plays right into Trump's hands and the narrative of this election being a battle between regular people vs the establishment.

[startelver]

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Right now, Trump to win stands at 5.50 

 

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Hey if the odds went up to 50 I would still not waste my money on it  ,he is not going to win , very simple really. 

If Bayern Munich is playing a lower league team the odds would be like the same on the outsider. I just don't believe in miracles.:haha:

 

[WuDu]

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@startelver wrote:

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Right now, Trump to win stands at 5.50 

 

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Hey if the odds went up to 50 I would still not waste my money on it  ,he is not going to win , very simple really. 

If Bayern Munich is playing a lower league team the odds would be like the same on the outsider. I just don't believe in miracles.:haha:

 

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That's the beauty of betting, different people having different opinions however if Hillary is such a clear-cut favorite, why are they hiding her? Since the last debate, I see Trump filling arenas, I see the Obamas campaigning, I see Bill Clinton campaigning but she's nowhere to be seen. Maybe it's because Project Veritas and wikileaks are breaking stories about her corruption on a daily basis and she hopes to limp over the finish line while being pushed and dragged by the mainstream media. Could you imagine Bayern München playing like that at home against Barefoot Bethlehem? Me neither...

Trump to win currently stands at 5.00.

 

[Magicadil]

There's absolutely no way President Clinton loses now. The media overhypes Trump's popularity. Come down to Canada/USA and you'll see how despised he is. WIkileaks will have no negative impact on Hillary's chances of winning. It's going to be a landslide.

You'll learn one day.

[WuDu]

Great, great week for President Trump so far as wikileaks and project veritas continue their death of 1000 cuts strategy. We all know Hillary is corrupt to the bone and therefor in hiding, but what's even better is the news of the premium hikes for Obamacare. Deleting 33.000 emails as the SoS is bad, really bad, however not something the average voter can really rely to. Being confronted with a 25 % increase in healthcare cost for sure is, especially for the working class. That will definitely help Trump as his message from the beginning was to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Trump to win stands at 5.00 here at Unibet and as I have said from the beginning, anything up to 2.40 represents value to me. If you're looking to place a bet, I'd still wait and see whether or not something major happens, there's still the chance someone has those 33.000 emails including communication with Obama. That would be the kill-shot and easy money for bettors...

[Magicadil]

Terrible week for Loser Donald. Down by double digits and with less than a 5% chance of winning, even Trump knows the clown show will soon be over.

Trump has essentially given up at this point and is spending his time promoting hotel & brand.

Trump thought he could get to the top by assaulting women, but Hillary is one women he couldn't conquer. She has him on the ropes and is going for the finish.

#RIPLoserDonald

[WuDu]

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@Magicadil wrote:

Terrible week for Loser Donald. Down by double digits and with less than a 5% chance of winning, even Trump knows the clown show will soon be over.

Trump has essentially given up at this point and is spending his time promoting hotel & brand.

Trump thought he could get to the top by assaulting women, but Hillary is one women he couldn't conquer. She has him on the ropes and is going for the finish.

#RIPLoserDonald

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@Magicadil wrote:

Terrible week for Loser Donald. Down by double digits and with less than a 5% chance of winning, even Trump knows the clown show will soon be over.

Trump has essentially given up at this point and is spending his time promoting hotel & brand.

Trump thought he could get to the top by assaulting women, but Hillary is one women he couldn't conquer. She has him on the ropes and is going for the finish.

#RIPLoserDonald

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One thing I have to give @Magicadil, whenever he goes off the rail, he at least brings the :laugh: Wow, what a meltdown...

 

 

[WuDu]

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@WuDu wrote:

 

Trump to win stands at 5.00 here at Unibet and as I have said from the beginning, anything up to 2.40 represents value to me. If you're looking to place a bet, I'd still wait and see whether or not something major happens, there's still the chance someone has those 33.000 emails including communication with Obama. That would be the kill-shot and easy money for bettors...

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And there it is, the FBI is reopening Crooked Hillary's email case! Seems like they found new ones. 10 days before the election.

Daniel-Bryan-YES-YES-YES

Maybe the FBI regrew some balls...

Odds for Trump to win at Unibet are down and fluctuate between 4,00 and 3,00. I just reloaded again for another 0,5*my original bet value at 3,25. Those are yuuuuuuge news, as the FBI wouldn't do that for no reason (wikileaks says hello). If you're looking to place a bet on Trump, the time is now. However I want to be clear, this is still a high risk-high reward bet and an election win is far from guaranteed. If you can afford to lose some of your funds however, you still get massive, massive value.

[Magicadil]

This is great news. Time to put $1,000 on Clinton. Odds are a little low for my liking (Would have hoped for atleast 1.6 or higher, so I might wait a couple days)

Mrs Clinton has done more for America than any living human. Although she has done a lot of bad (And has shown bad judgement in the past), Shes a completely new person (Thanks to the Obama administration. Shout out to Barack, the Greatest president in history! 🆒) 

As I post this, I'm reading this little gem:

 

 

 Its now or never. RIDE OR DIE TILL THE END!