US elections

[WuDu]

Hi guys,

I just placed my bet for the US presidential election and I'd like to take the time to spread my thought process out for you. Whether it's for fun, bragging rights or for discussions, I don't know yet...

About me:

I am German and I graduated with a Masters in International Economics, so I know "a little bit" about the economy, taxes and so on and I have a keen interest in numbers and statistics. On Unibet I'd like to play the 10 Euro SNGs which go OK so far, meaning I can withdraw a small sum of money each month to spend for myself. Long term, I'd like to move up to the 25 SNG and I am sure this bet will help me doing so. When it comes to betting, I set up a model based on stats in certain leagues, however for obvious reasons, I place my sporting bets elsewhere, not on Unibet. So keep in mind, I never, ever, ever place bets based on my personal assessment only because my stats tell me to do so. This politics bet however is an exception, this is strictly my personal opinion.

My bet:

Donald Trump to win the US elections at 3,25

The reasoning:

I've been following German, European and the US politics closely since the beginning of 2015. In Europe we had the Greek debt crisis, the migrant crisis and in the US we had the Republican primaries at that point. After following the media on the left wing (CNN, MSNBC, NY Times, WaPo) and on the right wing (Breitbart), I recently made up my mind and I firmly believe that Trump at 3.25 is massive value here.

Politics betting:

When it comes to betting in politics, we are betting on the opinion of the people. Pre election, this opinion is transmitted by polls and the media. However the media is far from being neutral, as most of it is left wing pushing their respective agenda. TV stations like CNN and MSNBC, newspapers like the NY Times, the WaPo, websites like Google, Facebook and Twitter all have their own horse in this race and it's name is Hillary. On the pro Trump side we have Breitbart and Fox News (???). So if the media is pushing a narrative that differs from the actual public opinion there has to be value for bettors going against the media candidate.

Don't believe me? After the first Republican primary, which Cruz won ahead of Trump and Rubio, the odds for Trump to be the GOP nominee were 4.00, media darling Marco Rubio had the lowest odds at that time. Rubio went on to win 1 or 2 primaries before dropping out. The Brexit had odds of around 5 if I remember correctly and Leave defeated Remain by over 1 million votes. In Germany, right-wing AFD is constantly under-polled as you will be seeing again this weekend during the regional elections in MVP.

The so called populist movement (Trump in the US, AFD in Germany, FPÖ in Austria, FN in France, Wilders in the Netherlands...) threatens the status quo of the establishment. The mainstream media is part of the establishment, thus why they're actively pushing against it.

The candidates:

The funny thing is, both Trump and Hillary are hated by parts of the population. However, if you look closely, you can see that Trump has been bombarded with anti Trump ads, he has the MSM working against him 24/7 while Hillary is shielded and protected (270 without a press conference). That works during the early phase of a campaign, however not during crunch time when people turn in to the debates and can see for themselves. Speaking of the debates, I originally wanted to wait up until the first debate to place this bet, however I believe things are already starting to crumble for Hillary:

You have Clinton Cash and the shady dealings of the Clinton Foundation, you have the missing emails from her server, you have Syria and Libya that went down the sewer when she was SoS, you have Wikileaks threatening, you have Bill Clintons sexual activities and you have lies, lies, lies. Trump says mean things and 2 or 3 of his business ventures went belly up. What do you think is worse?

To conclude:

I believe Hillary is getting more and more exposed during the final 2 months, leading to a further drop in Trump's odds. In the end she is the ultimate political insider during a period in which the people are fed up with the establishment. And what is she running on? In the beginning it was "You women are opressed, vote me in, then you're not opressed anymore", now it's "You might not like me or trust me, but at least I'm not Trump"? That's not enough, that's why I placed my bet now.

[AndreiBN]



This is a very professional analysis,and it's easy to notice that you have a thing when it comes to polictical views and you know what you are talking about,but just wanted to say i do respect people who put a lot of passion into what they belive,but politics is just not my thing.

In fact i wanna stay as far as i can from politics,from my point of view,they are the cancer of today's world,and not even when it comes to betting ,i wouldn't do a thing.

And for an odd of 3.40 i can find 3 tennis bets ,sit back and enjoy watching and in max 2 hours have my bet settled,no matter the result.

Good luck with your bet and keep us updated on your progress . :)

[Magicadil]

What about all the reasons Trump is cancer to the western world?

- The KKK and other racist groups support him

- Trump himself had to be pressured many times before he denounced the KKKs endoresment

- Had blacks beat up at his rallies for protesting

- Wants to build a wall to keep illegals out (Complete waste of money & extremely childish)

- Wants mass deportation of illegals (Will break families apart, they just want a better life. Why not help them get papers instead)

- Wants temporary ban on Muslims (profiling an entire group for actions of very small minority)

- Went bankrupt multiple times. Terrible business man

- Chose Mike Pence as his running mate. Most anti gay governor in history. Made life miserable for the LGTB community

- Uses tragedies like mass shootings to push for more guns (Believes if more people had guns, there would be less killings)

- Majority of his supporters hold Islamaphobic views

 

And so on. Im on my phone right now but theres dozens of other reasons.

 

On behalf of human rights and the right to diversity, I not only hope Hillary Clinton wins, I hope she wins massive.

[WuDu]



LOL, someone got triggered. Very sad. But thanks for correcting the record. What does Daniel Negreanu say about it?



I agree with you, politics is a dirty and corrupt business and the root of many evils in this world. Whenever someone is in charge of distributing taxpayers money, certain people/politicians/officers gain a lot of power that can be abused.

Like I said, I basically bet with a few buy-ins I normally use for SNG10, because I see incredible value here, I cannot pass up. I expect Trumps odds to drop to 2.4 or even lower before the election. If Hillary wins, I lose a few buy-ins, I probably win back anyway. If Trump wins, I'm a step closer to moving to SNG25.

To me that's strictly business :Smile:

[AndreiBN]

 

Like i said,i wish you good luck,but it's not for me.I don't even have the pacient to wait 2 months for a bet..would probably will forget about it anyway:)),But it's tru,the odds will drop in the upcoming weeks,so,strictly from this point of view,placeing the bet now was the right thing to do if you belive so much in it.

Please take this just as a suggestion,but it's obvious that you and  have completly different views when it  comes to politics and things related to it,so in my opinion,the best thing to do is just leave it like it is and it's just a waste of time fighting about politics,especially here,where this community is growing  so nice and in a very friendly way.

On a larger scale,this is one of the pupose of politics and politicians,to create conflicts between people with good intentions,just so they get the oportunity to do what ever they want when they get the power.,while nice people are having fights about principals and things like this.Mayve also you,   are a poker player and some people share your opinions about polictics and belive in what you say,it's the same with Negreanu or anyone else.Even if he's a pro poker player,he has the right to express his opinions on politics or whatever,and anyone can agree or not with him,but he's not forcing anyone to do as he says,so i guess  can share or not whoever he thinks it's on the same line of thought as he is.

Again,good luck on your bet and it would be so nice if we can leave the irony behind and try to understand each other in a much more positive way :)

[Magicadil]

Im not 'triggered' at all. Youre a German, you have no clue whats actually going on on the ground because youre on a different continent. In an older thread you used the word 'liberal' as an insult towards me, a tactic right wing racists use.

 

You also had a smug attitude towards Gender Studies, and Sociology (Misogynastic much)

 

You have lots of similar traits to Trump. Both hold racial bias, have skewed views on equality.

 

Good luck on your bet (100000% lose)

[JillianP]

Well I can't pretend to have done as thorough an analysis as WuDu, but I do fear that she/he is on a good bet here.

Although from the outside (I'm in the UK) it seems like a bad joke that any country could elect such a man as its leader the fact that he has come so far with such strong support speaks volumes.

As a non betting person I don't get the lingo, what does 3.25 mean in terms I would understand?
It's almost 1/8 so bet $3 to win $25? That seems very generous odds!

 

PS  Wudu didn't actually say she supported him, just that it seems a good bet.

[Magicadil]

@JillianP hes definitely a trump supporter. Thread from nearly 2 months ago https://www.unibetcommunity.com/t5/Off-topic/Donald-Trump-Presidency-Why-The-World-Should-Be-Afraid/td-p/13915

 

Anyways, Im done with the politic talk, just wanted to throw in my 2 cents.

[AndreiBN]



Let's say for exemple that you place a bet of10 pounds at 3.20 odds on Trump.If he wins ,your wil get a total of 32 pounds.as in 22 pounds profit

[WuDu]



You look like the typical Bernie Sanders supporter, who himself has been screwed royally by the Clinton campaign and the DNC according to emails distributed by wikileaks. Yet you still shill for Hillary here. Sad! Please stay on topic...



HE (I don't know how to change my avatar), would support Trump if I could, especially after following the primaries and the whole campaign so far. However, despite  trying to hijack this thread, it's still about betting and there is no way in the blue hell that I would place a bet on a person/team just because of personal preference.The bet has already been placed, so I just lay back and see how it all plays out and share it with you since like  said, 68 days is a pretty loooooong wait for a bet to clear.

Odds of 3.25 mean that you receive 32.50 for every 10 Euro you bet in case your bet wins. I don't know about the British or American way to display odds, but that means if you put the probability of Trump winning at more than 30.76 %, this is a bet for you. If you give Hillary a 10000000% chance of winning, stay away.

[JillianP]

Just click on your name (top right), My Settings, Avatars to choose a new one.

[WuDu]

Thanks .

Odds for Trump went up a little to 3.3 at Unibet, so more money went on Hillary yesterday, meaning my timing wasn't that good. But that's OK, if nothing major happens, I basically expect the odds to move marginally between now and the date of the first debate on September 26th, just like when you're playing heads-up and you trade blinds/walks/small pots.

In case something major does indeed happen (Islamic terror attack, wikileaks releasing the next batch of hacked emails, Hillary going to the hospital, record shootings/murders in Chicago on Labor Day Weekend), this should only lead to Trump's poll numbers rising and his odds falling.

[Magicadil]

---

@WuDu wrote:

Thanks @JillianP.

Odds for Trump went up a little to 3.3 at Unibet, so more money went on Hillary yesterday, meaning my timing wasn't that good. But that's OK, if nothing major happens, I basically expect the odds to move marginally between now and the date of the first debate on September 26th, just like when you're playing heads-up and you trade blinds/walks/small pots.

In case something major does indeed happen (Islamic terror attack, wikileaks releasing the next batch of hacked emails, Hillary going to the hospital, record shootings/murders in Chicago on Labor Day Weekend), this should only lead to Trump's poll numbers rising and his odds falling.

---

"record shootings/murders in Chicago on Labor Day Weekend" Unbelievable. Shootings in black communities won't affect Trump's numbers at all, he has already showed a disinterest for black people. Now of course Hillary has made racial statements in the 90s and was responsible for black men being locked up at at an alarming rate, she has gone a lot more progressive since. (Since working with the Obama Administration)

Neither candidate is good for the country. Bernie was the best man for the job, but now we have to choose between someone who has a shady past, but has shown signs of progression & will be neutral for the country, or a man who resembles traits of Adolf Hitler & will completely cause division.

Also, why is it that you mention Chicago shootings, but leave out all the mass shootings carried out by white males?

 

 

[WuDu]



And triggered again. Thanks for correcting the record, comrade. 4 posts, 4 times off topic. Lol...

Which shootings by white males? Typical left-wing tactic to deflect from the true problem of black on black crime in areas with Democratic mayors. According to the FBI stats which can be found here: Murders in the US in 2013

There have been 2491 black murder victims in 2013. In 189 cases the killer was white, in 2245 cases the killer was black.  90.7% of murderers of black people are blacks themselves, 7,5 % are whites. The Afro-American share of the US population is 13 %.

LOLiberals, stats not even once.

[Magicadil]



'Which shootings by white males?" Oh, let's see. All the school shootings? Dylan Roof shooting up a black church? Here are all the mass shootings in 2016 (Majority white, overwhelming): http://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting

The United States has the highest number of school-related shootings. From 2013 to October 2015 there were 142 school shootings in the United States. A study of 48 shooters found that white males constituted 79% of secondary school shooters.

Black on black crime is definitely an issue, but state all the facts & data. Your bias is showing.

BTW: Fox News is not a credible source for information. :Rofl:

[WuDu]



Triggered again. And like a typical SJW you deflect, after I schooled you on crime stats. Sad.

PS: This is a thread about betting...

 

[Magicadil]

 We obviously have opposing views, and I most certainly wouldn't invite you over for dinner, but let's call truce. 

This will definitely be my last post in this thread. You're obviously a bright person. How you use that intelligence, only you can decide.

Good luck in your poker career & future. 🆒

Peace!

[WuDu]

Hi guys,

I want to deliver those of you who are intersted a quick update. Odds for Trump at Unibet are now down a little at 2.9, which is good for our bet, but quite honestly, it doesn't say that much. However if the odds keep rising for Hillary towards election day, it would give us the option to hedge the bet depending on the risk aversity level of everyone who took the bets at 3.25 or higher.

Trump also leads in the LA Times and the weird Reuters poll, but again, at this point this is practically meaningless. What's more important, that Hillary cannot shake off her email affair. It's funny to think that according to the FBI releases from Friday, during her time at the state department, her aides used hammers to destroy her old mobile devices as if it were nothing...

[WuDu]

Still early, but odds for Trump to win now down to 2,70 at Unibet. Even CNN, the Clinton News Network, has Trump marginally ahead in their national polls. One interesting point is that despite Hillary leading Trump with women overall, Trump is ahead with married women by a large margin. Maybe Hillary should go all in and completely campaign in Spanish now...

[WuDu]

Hello guys,

This has been a horrific week for Hillary and thus a great week for my bet. Trump is now down to 2.60 and I'm expecting his odds to go down even further. I took the bet at 3.25 and the odds even went up a little bit later, but my projection was that they will go down to 2.40 and lower. This week Hillary bombed at the NBC Commander in Chief forum (bad sign for the debates), then went on to call half of Trump's voters "deplorable" (Romney in 2012 says "Hello") and finished it off by collapsing this morning and needing to be dragged to her van during the 9/11 memorial (There's a reason there are very few pictures of JFK using his crutches).

All in all, I feel really good about my bet and I expect the odds to drop further, maybe once the debates roll around and wikileaks releases the next batch of hacked mails, we'll might even see even odds between the two competitors.

[gillvs77]

if Trump get elected, do you think this will cause an effect on forex market, something like the Brexit caused?

[WuDu]



I am an economist, but I have no idea about the Forex market, however the US Election and the Brexit are two different kind of shoes. If I remember correctly, the Brexit had odds of 5,00 and more on June 23rd, meaning the betting markets and probably the financial markets as well did not expect such a result at all.

In case Trump wins, I expect the odds to shrink even further before election day, meaning the financial markets will be more and more aware of that possiblity as well. However the real problem is that I don't believe anybody can really say how and if the US-$ will move in case he takes over.

I recently watched a great German interview/documentary about investment banking, currencies, stock options and the shrinking of that industry post 2008. In that documentary they interviewed a former investment banker from Frankfurt about his experience. The conclusion I have drawn from that is that people like you and I should stay out of complicated markets like that. Sure, sometimes you might get lucky and profit, but those guys are way smarter than you and I, have way more ressources, spend way more time analyzing, have better hardware/software and probably insider knowledge. That's like gambling at a rigged casino... 

[FreedoM]

Pretty much i dont care who gets to be the poster boy for the usa, but i hope they aren't blood lusty like their predecessors and start wars.

[WuDu]

Odds for Trump to win now slashed to 2.40 and yesterday they even stood at just 2.25 here at Unibet. The good part for our bet is that Hillary has been in the news for all the wrong reasons and now even her health issues have made it to the mainstream news as well. At 2.40 I still see some serious value here and those odds will go down again once the debates come up in almost 2 weeks and wikileaks starts releasing the next batch of emails.

On a side note, I find it amazing how the US mainstream media is nothing but a propaganda tool for the Clinton campaign, taking the "diagnosis" of "pneumonia" for granted instead of doing their job and researching on their own. 

[gillvs77]

 how can you research statements about the health state of somebody, health care practioners have these deontological ethics to keep information about patients silent