GR1ZZL3R

I'm in and ready for action.Good Luck. 

I see Sscherbyna, psrquack and Freedom are getting double mentions. I'm a little disappointed and a touch jealous. 

53 minutes ago, Purps said:

Will probably pick a bunch of Qatar World Cup t-shirts that are on sale. No idea if FIFA-store items are generally good quality though. Somehow doubt it but oh well... 

   Well done fella.  Hope you don't get a signed T-shirt that requires 16 weeks of intense forensic examination to decipher the odd signatures. 

   It's usually an interesting debate "What would you do if..." but I'm looking at it in real life, not a theoretical lifetime possibility of fabulous riches, nice though that would be. And me having said you must always gamble in these situations XY raises a very pertinent point, if you don't like the current prize why take it, whether plus or minus ev. There's loads on YT about this sort of thing, "I'll give you £10 now or you can toss a coin and win £50." The majority, being risk averse humans take the cash now even though they're turning down a better ev offer. There just aren't enough gamblers in the world. 

11 hours ago, Livertool said:

That is the dilemma. Thou you were absolutely right about odds and value in long run, you gotta consider how often you get in that position. 

Yes, it is a dilemma and you can consider how often you get in that position but it doesn't alter the maths, winning more than you lose for a 50/50 flip must be a yes. Always.

11 hours ago, SShcherbyna said:

Your comment makes sense, but in this case, 40 euros is also not the best option. It is better to stop at 10 euros, because with the same EV as at 40 euros, the volatility is much lower.

   Why stop at 10e though, your next flip is 50/50 to win 20e, double your money. At 40e your next flip is to win 100e, more than double. I think points at which to consider stopping are when you have jumped from 20BP to 50BP or from a 2e Banzai to a 5e Banzai, in each case you've won more than you could have lost, the perfect situation for 50/50 flips. If you continue though and reach 40e your next flip, a 50/50 again, will win you more than you lose so must be taken. I think another thing to consider is that you're not actually losing money, before you started you didn't have that 40e, if you lose the flip you still don't but have actually lost nothing. It's a flip, it's free money, when the odds are in your favour you must take them, otherwise what's the point of playing? That's like saying I've won 9 flips in a row so am due to lose, (Gambler's Fallacy) right at the point where the odds are in your favour. Still not an easy decision though but only one correct one. 

   I don't blame you @XY a win of 40e is nice at any time but... the long term odds remain fixed. Well done anyway getting that far, I never seem to. 

26 minutes ago, XY said:

Would you gamble ? 

@Stubbe-Unibet could you provide us odds? 

@XY It's an absolute 100 % go for it.  The previous odds to get to your current situation are irrelevant. If the rng is not biased you are now in a 50/50 flip, two random hands against each other. If you lose you lose 40E of tickets, if you win you win 100E, a gain of 60 or a loss of 40 in a 50/50 flip is a long term sure fire money winner.  Go for it and good luck. 

4 hours ago, Nestabear said:

I never knew it would spark such a debate on the thread. Interesting to see all the different points of view & I opinions, I'm loving it. 

   I really can't believe the fuss over the request for a fistful of dollars, heaven knows what would have happened if you'd asked for a few dollars more. 

3 hours ago, Andy-Relax said:

You're posting quotes in favour of the vaccination now. Probably time to give up the crusade.

Now Wudu moves into another phase, not only not reading what someone else has written and making things up, now not reading what he is publishing and arguing for both sides, genius. And classically not owning up to the fact that he is still wrong with his maths, simply ignoring any question too difficult to answer, somewhat like his mentor, the Don. 

4 hours ago, WuDu said:

@GR1ZZL3R being vaxxed into dementia. Sad!

   At least I'd have an excuse for ignoring things, unlike yourself who does it deliberately. 

3 hours ago, SShcherbyna said:

I highly doubt that the staff can release any information about a player without their consent.

   So do I and I would never expect them to.

    I really can't understand the fuss, those that want to invest can, those that don't want to don't need to. At least some of the naysayers are still giving some encouragement. 

10 hours ago, SShcherbyna said:

Nothing prevents you from playing on Unibet just under a different nickname 

   I wouldn't think anyone from UB would get involved but if anyone reneged on their deals the back office boys would know they were still playing here, unlikely as it is they would or could do anything about it. (Wudu's mate came back didn't he?)

10 hours ago, SShcherbyna said:

There are no clear conditions, rules, and the proposal itself is very incomplete. For any guarantees, I am generally silent, and this is also important if it concerns money and it does not matter what the exact amount is.

   Sometimes, especially among friends, conditions don't need to be formalised. If a group of us were out and about and someone said "Lend us a tenner" I probably wouldn't start giving him the third degree about when and how I would get my money back. This has probably happened hundreds of times in my past, both ways, giver and asker. With inflation and my age taken into account I would think 50E is less than that and I regard this a s a temporary loan between acquaintances. Where would you draw the line? One euro, two, ten, nothing? The amount does matter. 

9 hours ago, WuDu said:

@GR1ZZL3R, I see it's already past your bed-time, so I spell it out just for you:

PC cost: 1000 Euro

5 donors a' 50 Euro: 250 Euro needed to finally buy the PC.

1000-250 = 750 Euro already with Nesta in his paypal/account/cash set aside to buy the computer. You get a good notebook for 500 Euro if you shop around a little, so why the need to ask for donations?

So I take that as a "you don't know, either" and that's not a good sign for any staking deal because Nesta explicitly stated his desire to compete "at the highest levels". 

   Wudu with the wrong information yet again, it's not a spelling challenge it's a maths challenge. So where does the 750 already in Nestabear's account come from, he has not given any figures as to what he already has. You're doing a Donald again (fast becoming known as a Wudu) and making things up when you replace what you've actually got with what you would like. If I don't know I'm quite willing to say so rather than pretend too know the answers. If it was 500E I could understand the concern, I'm chipping in 50E to hopefully help someone out, my choice my decision, thanks for your concern but no thanks. It's actually quite sad these days that the world is so full of scammers and con artists that even a small request from someone known in the community for years is treated with so much suspicion. If Nestabear disappears with however many lots of 50E he has managed to accrue then it would indeed be a sad day and all you naysayers can come up with all your "Told yous" and "A fool and his money are soon parted." I have a little faith left and wish Nestabear huge success and am willing to chip in 50 euros to hopefully help him on his way. 

2 hours ago, WuDu said:

Having said that, I'm still demanding answers:

   You can demand till your blue in the face but it's not for me to say. However I should demand that you go on a maths course, obviously still your weak point, on a par with a certain former  American President who also couldn't do simple maths.

2 hours ago, WuDu said:

So if the spots were truely limited, let's say to 5 donors, Nesta would have 750 Euro for a new PC available and a bankroll to play tournaments like the Supermoon. Why would anybody then need to raise 250 Euros online?

   Five donors at a clearly stated 50 euros each is, in my book, 250 euros and not, according to your calculations 750 euros. I think my book is more accurate. Anyhow I'm not going to argue in someone else's thread with you, you've got a knack of making any thread you write in unreadable.

   Hi @Nestabear I was going to reply to your private message with a yes but I'll continue in public for the time being, unless you say stop, and make a couple of points. 

   Obviously you could pay your winnings for a year but I wouldn't recommend that. Wudu getting his maths horribly wrong doesn't alter the point that you could win big early, give everyone a healthy return and then not have much incentive to continue, or simply play on other sites where you couldn't be monitored. I would suggest a fixed number of backers, say 5 at the most or else you'll seem to be paying out as much as you're winning, or even limit the payback to say 5 or 10 times the backing. If you get off to a slow start and are not winning much you'll not be paying much back but if you get off to a flyer you could be free and clear of debt and have nothing weighing you down. Anyway best of luck, I'm definitely in if you go for it, I'll be watching Sunday and I might as well stream it, no pressure then. 

   Each way betting can be a little tricky and confusing and to be honest I wouldn't really recommend it, but I'll try and help.

Unibet's each way terms are the same as most bookmakers, settling EW bets as two distinct bets, win to win and place to place. A £10 each way double means £10 is bet on both horses to win and a £10 bet on both horses to place. The fact one of your horses lost means you immediately lose the win part of your bet and only pick up the place part, thus severely watering down your bet. Again, betting in multiples of 3 or 4 horses means they all have to win to make a big difference, the place part of the bet generally being looked on as a "saver."  I hope this helps somewhat, but go steady on those each way shots, you're effectively doubling your bet.

   And once again WuDu comes up with answers to questions that haven't been asked. if you actually cared to read the thread nowhere does it suggest that he is offering 20 pieces of 5% which would indeed take all his profit for the year but lo and behold! it's actually there in black and white... "I'm offering a limited number of stakes."  In my book that doesn't mean 20 or even 10. Nestabear has done some research, maybe WuDu should as well. Maths is obviously not his strong point.  

And he's still banging on about his favourite subjects, "Vaccinating Brocky." Everybody else stopped that years ago. 

It may be a glitch in the matrix, a local break in the time continuum or just a mistake. Put a couple of bob on Fox Journey, you never know! 

   Hi Nestabear

 To be fair Sscherbyna has a point about costs, it may be better to do some more research on the computer side and his point on staking has to be considered, it may or may not be right for you.  Ignore the trolls though, this is a totally different proposition put out in the open for many to see. 

   So... do I go and blast off yet another 40 euro ticket on the tables or invest in a risky venture with probably not a huge upside? About the same result I would think. I doubt you'll be shelling out thousands in the next year but at least I'll have tried to help, as I know you'll try to win. 

   I'm in. 

A similar trajectory to last week, another great start to the week fizzled out with a terrible run.

   Maybe I should only bet Sunday and Monday!

Some players haven't realised the correct tactics against me yet but it is really very simple and basic. If you think I have a good hand just get the chips in, no matter how far ahead I am or what you have, you will find a way to win. 

   That's it, enjoy. 

DAY 6

   A slight change with a much shorter video showing the main highlights (and lowlights) and some very simple analysis. 

DAY 5   

DAY 4

DAY 3

Sorry @SShcherbyna your 66 was not good enough.