BonusPater

Incredible how unlucky I've been with the goalscorer bets so far. Philipp just scored a great goal, but unfortunately Hazard scored the first one in the 1st half.

SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach, 10/09 15:30 CET - First Goalscorer: Philipp - odds 10 Will usually not post this close to kickoff, but in this case I wanted to see the starting 11's first. Don't have time to write any analysis for this one. EDIT: damn it. Philipp just scored a good goal, but it was the second of the match. First wanted to bet on him as AG, but after a chat with Marco-Unibet, I decided to go with a first goalscorer bet instead.

Result so far: Bets: 4 Won: 1 Average bet value: 105 ROI: -38 Units: -1.52 FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München, 09/09 20:30 CET - Caicara to get booked - odds 3.2 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png Caicara had a horrible start to the season, and he's not very likely to start against Bayern - if he doesn't start, the bet will be voided. If he does start however, I think it's very likely he'll get all 90 minutes on the pitch - Bayern are likely to go in the lead, and Caicara is the best RB in the squad, when it comes to attacking. Schalke is expected to get under a lot of pressure, and the defenders will surely have a busy day at the offie. Caicara will, if he starts, be responsible for taking care of a Ribery in great form. The Brazilian has made a habit of getting stupid yellow cards, and the pace of Ribery could very well result in a yellow card today. Caicara has played roughly 1950 minutes of Bundesliga (21 full matches + a bit) and he's been booked in 8 of the games. I estimate the chance of Caicara to get booked to be 34 %, giving a very decent bet value of 108.8

Result so far: Bets: 4 Won: 1 Average bet value: 105 ROI: -38 Units: -1.52 Werder Bremen vs Augsburg, 11/09 15:30 CET - Goals by away team: over 1.5 - odds 2.43 Analysis will be added tomorrow, as I don't have time today :)

One more bet on this match: Both teams to score, odds 1.90. Quick recap of bets for the 2nd round (more might be added later): FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München Over 2.5 goals, odds 1.5 Both teams to score, odds 1.9 RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Over 3.5 goals, odds 2.55 The Dortmund bet has, as expected and mentioned in the post, slashed to 2.38 = no longer any value in this bet. Over 2.5 in Schalke has increased a little and is now at 1.54 = decent value in this bet.

Odds on HSV continue to slash, and even though it's probably going to increase again close to kickoff, it's extremely unlikely it'll hit 8.5. I've also been having an eye on Augsburg to win against Werder, but I wan't the odds to get close to 3.3, before I recommend it, and that doesn't seem to happen either :dissatisfied: Ribery to score just opened in 2.65, which is a little less than I had hoped for. In the unlikely event that Caicara will start, I do think there's a bit of value in this bet. I had hoped Niederlechner would open in a higher odds as well, considering how high it was last round. Might post an AG bet later today, but it doesn't look as good as last week. I've only met nice and easy-going Schalke supporters from the Ruhrgebiet ;) I can live with EL, as long as we beat that ridiculous team a bit East of GElsenkirchen, the 29th of October.

1. I understand you couldn't have done it differently, unless you included a lot more leagues and tried to make a general conclusion for football - again I don't think it'd be very valuable information :) Two goals in 45 games is the difference between a horrible and a great ROI, in my opinion that's the only point needed ;) 2. This could be a long discussion :) Has it become more difficult for a guy like me, who's just a bit of a geek, spending a lot of time watching games, reading news etc.? Not so sure. There will be possibilities, when the process is becoming more automated and less manual work is involved from the traders. Your first conclusion: betting on the biggest markets will never be easy, and if someone asked me the question "I'm new to this game, can you teach me how make a profit on the Bundesliga", I'd say "forget about the Bundesliga. Focus on a smaller market like a few winter sports or handball". That being said, I've historically been able to make a profit. Making a profit using just one bookmaker and trying to post at least 3-4 bets every week is a new thing to me though, and time will tell if I'm able to or not - so far I've been able to find value, but that might just be because I'm a bit rusty :) As long as there's value, I don't care about the odds or the chance of a short-term deficit :) EDIT: yes, that guy on the picture could have been me when I was younger ;) Is this you? Or maybe that's you? ;)

Interesting numbers, but I don't think they're very useful: 1. Statistical uncertainty pretty much makes the numbers useless - you need a much, much bigger sample size for these high odds. 2 draws ending with a win instead, and you've got a positive ROI. 2. When it comes to odds compiling, a lot has changed since 09/10 3. What conclusion would you draw on the finding(s)? We know that, in general, the bookmakers are accurate when estimating the chance, and the vast majority of players will end up with a RTP equal to or less than the theoretical RTP. Would you then say that as soon as the chance of winning a 1X2 bet is estimated to be around 10 %, they're always wrong, and the chance is in fact less/betting on the favorite is always profitable? I like these kind of stats, but should they be used for anything? I don't think so :) EDIT: disgusting avatar you've got ;)

Result so far: Bets: 4 Won: 1 Average bet value: 105 ROI: -38 Units: -1.52 Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV, 10/09 15:30 CET - Hamburger to win - odds unknown This is a bit of an alternative bet recommendation. The odds on the outcome is currently too low, but I expect it to increase close to kickoff. The odds opened at 8.25 but has slashed so it's currently at 7. I estimate the chance of winning the bet to be 12 %, and only recommend this bet if the odds increase to 8.5. As I'm not at all sure the odds will increase to this, I will wait with the written analysis - I might not have time for any written analysis at all, just so you know :)

Result so far: Bets: 4 Won: 1 Average bet value: 105 ROI: -38 Units: -1.52 FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München, 09/09 20:30 CET - Over 2.5 goals - odds 1.5 :cash: A real Bundesliga classic and the game of the 2nd "Spieltag". Bayern had a perfect start to the season with their 6-0 humiliation of Werder. Quite a contrast to Schalkes 1-0 defeat against Frankfurt. Another entertaining game with many goals is what we should expect from the game on Friday. A game with quite a lot of uncertainties. This is a good bet because Schalke looked very week in the defense against Frankfurt, and so have they done in the pre-season as well - particularly in the game against Bilbao they were struggling. Having been the best rated keeper in the Bundesliga for two consecutive years, by Kicker, Fährmann is of course a force to be reckoned with, but even he can't stop everything. Naldo had a horrible game against Frankfurt, and him and Höwedes clearly need more time to get to know each others game better. Caicara was, in my opinion, the worst player on the pitch, and I'm willing to go as far as saying there will for sure be changes in the back four. Despite Schalke having played a few different formations in the pre-season, including a 5-2-2-1, the German media expect Schalke to be starting with 4 defenders.It's not only in the defense that we can expect changes in the starting 11. Geis and Aogo didn't convince on the DM, and I expect either Goretzka and Bentaleb or Stambouli and Bentaleb to be starting. Choupo is still not at 100 %, so it's likely that Kono will be starting as well. I'd also be surprised if Embolo doesn't get the chance from start, instead of di Santo. That means 5 new signings in the starting 11. Difficult to say what effect it'll have, but I don't expect Schalke to be any stronger defensively, than they were against Frankfurt. Possible that Baba will be starting as well, but I think Weinzierl will choose Kolasinac in a game where they're expected to be under so much pressure.Lewandowski, Müller, Ribery. Not sure I need to say any more than this. Bayern have looked great when attacking, both in the pre-season and of course also against Werder. They weren't that convincing against Dortmund in the Super Cup, but they were very efficient. If Caicara should start, there's without doubt going to be good value in Ribery to score.Despite failing to score, Schalke created some very decent chances and they could easily have scored two goals against Frankfurt - the first half was horrendous, but with Embolo, Baba and Bentaleb on the pitch, things started to look much better. Meyer, Bentaleb, Goretzka, Embolo, Konoplyanka, Choupo-Moting and Huntelaar can, on a good day, be quite a challenge, even to Bayern.You might loose the bet because Fährmann and Neuer are, in my (and Kicker's) opinion, the two best shot stoppers in the Bundesliga.Even without Boateng, Bayern's defense is a bit intimidating.Bayern are considerably stronger at home, scoring 3 goals on average at home and "just" 1.71 away (last season). Last season, Schalke conceded about the same number of goals at home, as they did away, but they scored slightly more at home (1.65, 1.35). 65 % of Schalkes home games had more than 2.5 goals. For Bayern away the number was only 53 %. Only looking at these statistics, it's difficult to see the value in this bet.The many new Schalke signings in the starting 11 might turn out to be a positive thing for the team from Gelsenkirchen - can of course both be a good and a bad thing for the bet, depending on which part of the pitch they're stronger.Expected lineups and team news Schalke 04 I think a 5-2-2-1 formation is likely, but I'll listen to the German media and go with the usual 4-2-3-1. Bayern München Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s) I estimate the chance of over 2.5 goals to be 68 %, giving a bet value of 102.

Result so far: Bets: 4 Won: 1 Average bet value: 105 ROI: -38 Units: -1.52 RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund - Over 3.5 goals - odds 2.55 :cash::cash::cash: Because of a busy week, I'll only have time for a quick introduction to this bet. An early bet on this match, as I expect the odds to slash as we get closer to kickoff. El Plastico was the most entertaining game in the first round. After the bad display against Dresden in the DFB Pokal, I was positively surprised by Leipzig in the game against Hoffenheim. Even though Leipzig were behind 2-1 with just 1 minute left to be played + injury time, they managed to get a draw, and looking at the chances and shots in the game, it wouldn't have been undeserved with a victory. The team showed great moral and some promising football on Hoffenheims part of the pitch. Defensively the team looked weak, and Compper and Orban is in my opinion one of the weakest CD's in the league. The team from Leipzig just signed Papadopoulos on a loan, and if he manages to find the old Papa we saw in Schalke, before his long injury break, he'll surely be a great addition to the Leipzig defensive. This if a very big if though, and even if he does start against Dortmund, it'll be his first game with the team, so it probably won't have much of a positive effect. Dortmund played a decent game against Mainz and deserved the 2-1 victory. Like Leipzig, the team didn't look very strong defensively, and it looked much better when attacking. Young Passlack had a horrible game and Sokratis didn't impress either. It's not an easy thing to replace Hummels, but Bartra actually played a very decent game. No matter which 4 Tuchel decides to start with in the defense, Leipzig's chance of scoring looks good. As long as Leipzig dare to play their own game and are not intimidated by playing against a club as big as Dortmund, I think we're in for a real treat with a lot of goals. Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s) I estimate the chance of over 3.5 goals to be around 42 %, which gives a bet value of 107. Recommend 1 unit on this bet.

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What a great thread, @MoreTBC. Even though you were just "testing" yesterday, I'd like to offer you € 20 in tickets, to get you off to a good start. Just let me know which tickets you'd like and I'll get them added later today :)

-1.52 units after the first four bets. Not the best start, but I'm actually pretty happy with 3 of the 4 bets. Believe I was right about the value in both the Huntelaar and Raffael bet. They both had chances to score and they more shots than expected. Freiburg didn't create much and made it a little difficult for Niederlechner. Despite him playing a decent game, I might have been a little too optimistic when estimating the chance for that bet. I'll be back with more bets soon :)

In approx. 100 bets time you can start drawing some conclusions, even though variance will still be a factor with so relatively few bets :) It's the long-term :cash: that matters :)

As a Schalke fan I think the first 15 minutes were way too exciting! :) Defensively there have been some worrying signs against e.g. Bilbao, and today's match just confirmed that there's still a long way till the team is there. Baba and Bentaleb did very well, and Embolo will be there soon as well, it's just a matter of a few game. Next week against Bayern there's a guarantee for goals. As for the two bets, both Huntelaar and Raffael had the number of chances and shots I'd expected would result in a goal, but they missed the last bit in the finishing. Both had 4 shots and both should have scored a goal. Sometimes the marginals are with you, sometimes they're against you - today the latter was the case :)

What a horrendous display by Schalke in the first half. They weren't really on the pitch in the first 20 minutes, and it could easily have been 3-0 for Frankfurt :speechless:😞 Started looking better by the end of the 2nd half, so let's hope that trend continues and Huntelaar will get a few chances 😃

And there was the 6-0 :cash: 😃

I didn't expect a lot from Bremen, but this can turn into a real embarrassing start for them. Wouldn't be surprised if the score after 90 minutes is 6-0 :cash:

So close to the start of the Bundesliga season that I've almost started shaking of excitement :geek: I'm not going to post further bets for this week but will just do a short recap. I've got 4 bets for the first round: Bayern München vs Werder Bremen - Bayern AH -3 - odds 2.48. This odds has slashed big time since I posted it and it's currently at 2.00 - yeah, sure it's all because of my little analysis 🆒. This was really expected, and you'll see that 90 % of the bets I post on a favorite, they'll be online at least 4-5 days before the game. No longer any value in this bet.Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04, 27/08 15:30 CET - AG: Huntelaar - odds 2.75. As you might have noticed I'm pretty fond of the anytime goalscorer bets, and there're several reasons for this: 1. The odds tend to stay pretty much the same, so even though you read the post a few days later, there'll likely still be value, 2. Unibet are almost always the bookmaker with the highest odds on this bet type, 3. I've got a good record on this particular bet type. The odds on Schalke to win is decreasing slightly and this trend should continue in the next 24 hours. The odds on Huntelaar is still the same, and there's still value in this.Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg, 28/08 15:30 CET - AG: Niederlechner - odds 4.9. Odds on Freiburg dropping, but again the AG bets are staying the same - still odds 4.9 on Niederlechner. Still value in this bet. Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 27/08 18:30 CET - AG: Raffael - odds 3.15. I feel like I'm repeating myself, but the odds on Borussia are dropping. The odds on Raffael has changed a little, as it's now 3.10. There's still value, but it's not much.

Result so far: No bets settled. Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 27/08 18:30 CET - AG: Raffael - odds 3.15 This is an Anytime Goalscorer bet on Raffael. If Raffael scores, the bet is won. If Raffael isn't in the starting lineup, the bet will be voided.Without doubt the most interesting game this round - even as a Schalke fan I think so. It's a game between to Champions League contenders who both want to finish in top 4, and these H2H games are of course very important in that regard. This is a six-pointer. Both clubs have done reasonably well on the "Transfermarkt" this summer. Leverkusen look slightly stronger on paper, and for Borussia it's pretty much status quo. Last season the two clubs played some very entertaining matches against each other, with Leverkusen winning the first 5-0 and Borussia taking home a 2-1 victory in the second game. With 67 goals scored and 50 goals concessed last season, Borussia was in general just a very fun team to watch - 3.44 goals per match, on average! This is a good bet because Borussia have had a good pre-season and perfect start to the season. They won 0-1 against SV Drochtersen/Assel in the German Cup, which is not very impressive, but in the Champions League qualification they won 1-3 and 6-1 against Young Boys. Borussia-Park is a fortress and the clubs record for last season was 13-1-3 - they had a very bad start to the season with 5 defeats, 2 of them being at home.The bookmakers estimate the chance of Borussia scoring over 1.5 goals to be 46 % and 77 % for over 0.5 goals. As mentioned above, they scored 67 goals last season and at home they managed an average of 2.47 goals.Raffael had a fantastic last season with 13 goals and 10 assists - 13 scored goals is also his average for the last 3 seasons. Not only did he have a great last season, he has also continued his strong form in the pre-season and Champions League qualifiers. Yesterday he scored a hattrick against Young Boys, and looking at Borussias last 7 games, he's scored 7 of their 20 goals (35 %). Raffael is expected to shoot free kicks and possibly penalties as well. You might loose the bet because Raffael doesn't have that many shots on goal per game (2.3), and he scores on 19 % of his shots. His shots are fairly accurate though, having the same shot accuracy as Lewandowski and 3 percentage points higher than e.g. Aubameyang. Leverkusen have have a good pre-season with victories against Fiorentina (3-1), Sociedad (2-0) and others. In the cup game last weekend they weren't convincing though, just winning 2-1 against SC Hauenstein playing in the "Oberliga".Leverkusen were defensively strong last season, conceding just 1.18 goal per game (1.35 in away games).Expected lineups and team news Borussia Injuries: Dominguez, Doucouré, Drmic 3, Leverkusen Injuries: da Costa, Dragovic (won't join the team before after the national games), Bender, Chicharito, Kießling Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s) I estimate the chance of Raffael scoring to be around 33 %, giving a bet value of 103.9

The odds has, as expected, slashed and is now 2.23 = no longer any value in this bet. Odds on the Huntelaar and the Niederlechner bets remain unchanged. Kicker just published their expected lineups, and they've got Niederlechner alone upfront and Philipp just behind him - great for the bet, if that'll be the case :)

Result so far: No bets settled. Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg, 28/08 15:30 CET - AG: Niederlechner - odds 4.9 This is an Anytime Goalscorer bet on Niederlechner. If Niederlechner scores, the bet is won. If Niederlechner isn't in the starting lineup, the bet will be voided.As I'm busy with other things, this will be a very short written analysis. Niederlechner is riding a wave of success at the moment. He had a great "Rückrunde" (2nd half of the season) in the 2nd best league last season, scoring 8 goals in 14 games. In the pre-season he has, without comparison, been Freiburg's most dangerous man when attacking. He's scored 15 of Freiburg's 42 goals (including the German Cup game), a staggering 36 %, and in many of the games he only played 45 minutes. In the last two games he's played, he's scored 4 of Freiburgs 7 goals. What speaks against this bet is the strength of the team and Hertha's performance at Olympiastadion. Hertha kept a clean sheet in 47 % of their home games, last season. On the other hand Freiburg's offensive was really strong last season, scoring 75 goals and only failing to score in two games - this was in the second best league. Depending on the formation, there's a good chance Niederlechner won't get 90 minutes on the pitch. I estimate the chance of winning the bet to be 22 %, giving a bet value of 107.8. Recommend 1 unit on this bet.

Result so far: No bets settled. Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 - AG: Huntelaar - odds 2.75 This is an Anytime Goalscorer bet on Huntelaar. If Huntelaar scores, the bet is won. If Huntelaar isn't in the starting lineup, the bet will be voided.As always, the expectations are high in Gelsenkirchen. Heidel and Weinzierl have both gotten of to a decent start in their new jobs, and everyone is hoping for Champions League qualification after a couple of seasons with Europa League. A few weeks ago Klopp was quoted for saying "I know no Dortmund fan wants to hear this, but I think Schalke could be really successfull" - like adding fuel to the fire of high expectations. The expectations at Commerzbank-Arena are not quite as high, and the German Cup game last Sunday also indicates that it's going to be a tough season for the club from the fifth-largest German city. Last season relegation was avoided very last minute in the 2nd relegation play-off match against Nürnberg. Schalke has been fairly active on the transfer market this summer, and one or two more players are still to arrive, according to the German media. Most significant signings are Embolo (most expensive player in the clubs history, € 22.5 million), Naldo, Coke and Baba. Also worth noting that Avdijaj and Ayhan are back after having been on loan, and it should of course also be mentioned that Sané was sold for a record-breaking € 50 million. In Frankfurt it's been really, really quite with just two new signings and a few more players coming on loan. This is a good bet because Schalke have had a very decent pre-season with recent wins against Athletic Bilbao, Fiorentina and Bologna, and Schalke scored 3, 3 and 2 goals in the games respectively. They didn't exactly impress in the cup game against Villingen, but they cruised home a 1-4 victory.Huntelaar in particular can be very happy about the past month. He scored in the weekend's cup game against Villingen, against Kiel, Athletic, Wanne Eickel, Luzern, Eintrach Rheine and Guangzhou R&F. In other words he's scored in 7 of 10 games. Some of the opponents quality, or rather lack thereof, of course has to be taken into considerationThe team from Gelsenkirchen seem to continue the trend from previous seasons; we don't care how many goals are scored against us, as long as we score more. I'll admit I haven't been able to watch that much of the pre-season games, but what I have seen hasn't been impressive defensively. Is this bet is just about Huntelaar scoring, many goals is obviously a good thing - preferably the goals should be in Hradecky's goal though.In the cup game against Villingen, Schalke played with a 4-4-2 formation, which didn't work that well. With Meyer back from a very successful Olympic, the formation is likely to change back to the 4-2-3-1 that the team has fancied in recent years. Huntelaar will surely be chosen as the lone striker.Schalkes style of play is expected to be slightly different under Weinzierl, and Huntelaar has been drawing some parallels to Ralf Rangnick. Rangnick was coach for Schalke for half the 2011/2012 season where Huntelaar scored 29 goals in the Bundesliga. Huntelaar should expect more balls in the penalty box, compared to the last couple of seasons.Despite a recent bad record, Huntelaar is expected to shoot penalties.You might loose the bet because The 3 guys behind Huntelaar are likely going to be Meyer, Embolo and Choupo. I'm not sure how good Embolo will be at setting up Huntelaar, but it did look fairly promising against Villingen. This is more of an uncertainty - could turn out to be positive to have Embolo on the wing.Schalke haven't signed a replacement for Sané yet. Embolo can play his position though.Huntelaar hasn't had as many shots per game in the past two seasons, as he used to (2.6 last season)Schalke are not very strong away from Veltins Arena and they failed to score in 29 % of the away games last season. Furthermore Frankfurt managed to keep a clean sheet in 29 % of their home games, which is very decent, considering where they ended up in the table.Expected lineups and team news Frankfurt Notable injuries: Stendera, Russ Schalke Notable injuries: Coke, Uchida, Goretzka (expect him to be ready, but not sure he'll be fit for the starting 11) Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s) There's a great degree of uncertainty related to this bet - e.g. not so sure about the formation, which can in worst case move 1-2 %. I estimate the chance of winning to be around 37-39 %, giving a bet value of 101.8-107.3. Recommend 1 unit on this bet.

Good question :) It very much depends on the bet type. There's a big difference between estimating the chance for a special bet and e.g. 1X2 or an Asian Handicap. In this case I actually made a mistake when writing there's a 42 % chance of winning - I'd been writing multiple pieces of analysis for more than 2.5 hours straight, so my head was a bit heavy at the time. When it's an asian handicap with a chance of the bet being voided, you obviously have to include this in the bet value calculation. You simply take the percentage chance of a draw (e.g. 5 %) and add it as percentage points to the bet value (5). Happy to explain this in more detail, if you want to know more :) Let me take you through the process for this particular bet I'll first check all the different markets on the match, to see if there's anything that could potentially have some value. As I'm only going to recommend odds from Unibet, it's much more difficult than normally. I'm obviously not going to pick a bet, where our odds is around the market average or below, so not only does the general market level have to be interesting, Unibet has to be among the bookmakers offering the highest odds on the outcome. I tend to look quite a lot at the odds on Pinnacle and compare them to Unibet. I checked the odds for 1X2, Asian Handicaps, Over/Under, Both teams to score, Bayern over/under etc., and the only bets of interest were Bayern -2.5, -2.75 and -3 and Lewandowski to score. As I now identified these bets as interesting, I started looking at them in more detail. I quickly realized that Lewandowski to score didn't have any value, and moved on focus on the Asian Handicaps. How did I determine there wasn't any value in Lewandowski to score? For Anytime Goalscorer bets, the expected number of goals from the team is of course critical information, but that alone gives you nothing. Personally I look at lot at recent form of the player; how many shots has he had in the past games, where did the shots go, how many goalscoring opportunities did he have etc. The opponents defence and how they'll match up to your man is of course also important. Knowledge is key, and sometimes you don't even need to do any detailed analysis, to identify a great bet. A good example is from the 2012-2013 season, when Lewis Holtby played at Schalke. In the previous season, he'd primarily played DM and by the start of the new season he was going to play AM, with just Huntelaar in front of him. His pre-season had been fantastic. The odds on some bookmakers didn't really reflect this, and there was very good value in him to score in the first few games of the season. He scored in 3 of the first 5 matches of the season, and the odds was between 7 and 5. Well, back to the AH bet. As with the goalscorer bets, I like to use shots statistics for an initial estimation of the chance. I then make adjustments based on team news, last 2-3 games etc. etc. - basically anything that has an influence. I also like to look at related bets and use them as a reference, but that's usually earlier in the process, when I just browse the markets. If I'm looking at handicap bets, I'd e.g. check over/under lines, clean sheet odds etc. After adding and subtracting back and forth, I'll end up with a percentage. If this is more than 101%, I'd usually place the bet. Depending on the bet, it might not happen on paper/Excel, but I'll simply just do the calculations in my head. Again, knowledge really is key. Personally I spend a lot of time: 1. Browsing Twitter for expert opinions, updates from players and teams etc. 2. Reading German football news (Kicker, Bild, 11Freunde, DerWesten etc. etc.) 3. Watching matches (usually 2-5 every week) and occationally press conferences as well I'll probably do a blog post soon, where I go more in detail with the numbers and actual method. The above is obviously very high-level.