BonusPater

@Karl, I hear what you say, but what you're calling "a gesture used by terrorists before they blow up", is an extremely common phrase in the muslim world. It's said billions of times every day, and the fact that some crazy individuals sometimes say it before they commit a terrible crime, doesn't make it a bad phrase in any way. As mentioned in the previous post, it simply means that god is the greatest/god is greater. If you walk in the street in e.g. Turkey, you'll hear the phrase multiple times a day, including when the muezzin do the adhan (called ezan in Turkey, I believe). You might very well be right that the name is chosen to offend other players, as it's misspelled (the phrase is Allāhu akbar, not Allah Akbar). We can't know this for sure though, and even if we knew, we can't just ban a common phrase because it's in Arabic and sometimes used by lunatics. If we were to ban this, we should ban thousands of other phrases that could possibly be seen as offensive by a minority. Happy new year :)

Personally don't think Takbir is offensive at all. Do you find "GodIsGreater" or "OdinIsTheGreatest" offensive too? :)

Worst possible end to the year, but a bad streak had to come at some point, especially when playing these high odds. The marginals are just not on our side at the moment :( Still very happy with the result, and I'm sure we'll turn things around in the new year :) I've got one more season bet (two units): Wolfsburg vs Mönchengladbach - Best finishing position: Wolfsburg - Odds 1.75 :cash::cash:

RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt - 1X2: 2 - Odds 5.75

Ingolstadt down to 2.15 and Köln now 2.90 = not worth a bet at this point. Götze NTS is 1.46 which still has great value! Lewandowski NTS has increased a little (should have expected this would happen, when the public money starts to have an effect) to 1.93! :)

@startelver, as @cris1285 says, I simply believe the chance of them not scoring is slightly higher than what's reflected in the odds. I'm writing from my mobile, so I won't go much into detail, but let's take the Götze bet as an example. He played a decent game against Hoffenheim, but didn't really impress in any way, and his stats simply don't justify the low odds on him to score/high odds on not to score. Below what I wrote in connection with a previous bet on him not to score. His stats haven't changed much since. He's had 4 shots (FOUR SHOTS) on goal in 649 minutes... That's one shot every 162 minutes = he roughly has one shot on goal every second game. Let's compare to another player. There's the same odds on Ramos to score (2.45). Ramos has played 355 minutes, had 12 shots and scored 2 = one shot every 29.5 minutes (remember Götze was one shot every 162 minutes).

Borussia Dortmund vs Augsburg - Götze Not To Score - Odds 1.48 :cash::cash::cash: Bayern Münich vs RB Leipzig - Lewandowski Not To Score - Odds 1.9 :cash:

Not the best weekend, but with these high odds, it's really what you can expect once in a while. -2 units is not that bad, and I'm sure we'll be back on track in the last round of the year, or at least beginning of next year. Gotta get back to my vacation now :D

FC Ingolstadt vs SC Freiburg - 1X2: 1 - Odds 2.35 :cash:

FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen - 1X2: 1 - Odds 3.00 :cash:

Interesting lineup for Schalke. Avdijaj on the bench, so that bet is voided, and Reese getting the chance from start :)

Just a quick recap. Have 3 bets this round: RB Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin - 1X2: 2 - Odds 6.40 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png Schalke 04 vs Freiburg - AG: Avdijaj - Odds 3 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png Wolfsburg vs Eintrach Frankfurt - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.40 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png Donis Avdijaj is down to 2.90, Hertha 5.50 and Frankfurt 2.90. In other words: there's no longer any value in the bets, which is always a good sign :) This might be my last post in the thread this year, as I'm travelling to Denmark in the evening and will be off till the 30th. I'll maybe post a few more bets later today or tomorrow, but don't count on it :) I had expected a ROI between 5 and 8, based on my previous results, so I'm obviously extremely happy with the current ROI of 19.9 (you might wonder how it suddenly increased from 19.3 to 19.9 without further bets being settled, but that's simply because I had forgotten to remove the stake for some of the voided bets where the players didn't start - only if the money is actually in play, the stake for voided bets should be included in the ROI calculation). I've made a € 100 bet with @MarcoV that I will manage a ROI of 28+ when the season is over (need to place a minimum of 130 bets). It sounds ridiculously high, but the 3 units on Aubameyang to be the TGS at odds 9 makes it very likely in my opinion. New official goal for the blog is a ROI of 35, when the season is over! Equally important I also want to add more content to the blog, as I've really failed at that the last 10 rounds or so. When the Bundesliga is back in January, I think I'll try with some videos instead of written analysis. What do you guys think about that? Do you prefer a video or written analysis? NB yesterday I was considering a draw, both teams to score and Wagner to score, but the odds on Unibet weren't that good on these outcomes :(

Unibet just increased the odds on Hertha to win against Leipzig so that it's now 6.40. Even though there's a chance the odds might increase slightly more (it opened at 5.50), I'm going to place the bet now. Unibet currently have the highest odds on the market (at least among the bookmakers I usually use). RB Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin - 1X2: 2 - Odds 6.40 :cash:

Schalke 04 vs Freiburg - AG: Avdijaj - Odds 3 :cash: As Huntelaar, Embolo, di Santo and Choupo-Moting are all out with injuries, Kono or Avdijaj are the most likely starters in the attack for Schalke, next to Meyer. Personally I think (and hope) that Avdijaj will get the chance from start, and if he doesn't, the bet will be voided. There's not exactly a lot of relevant data to back this bet up, as he's only played one minute in the Bundesliga (has been injured until recently). This bet is mostly based on a gut feeling and his great game against Salzburg last week - in my opinion he was Schalke's best man in that game. Not exactly one of the bets I'm very confident about, but I do believe there's a tiny bit of value.

I've put two units on this season bet: HTH between Dortmund and RB Leipzig - Dortmund to finish highest in the table - odds 2.60 :cash::cash::cash::cash: Updated Excel doc: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx

You're welcome :) Hope you managed to put a bit of money of Frankfurt for next week as well. Odds now down to 3.0 :) Result so far: 73 bets placed, 69 of them settled and 26 won +11.6 units ROI of 19.3 Looking fantastic with all the season bets. Not that unlikely we'll win on them all and secure an 18 unit profit! :) I might have a few more for you during the vinter break, depending on how many specials our traders will put on the site :)

haha, I don't think Leverkusen will score, but Schalke could fail as well, even though it's less likely ;) I'd go with 1-0 or 2-0, if I should pick a score :)

And a bet for tomorrow: Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen - Both teams to score: No - Odds 2.23 :cash:

Was too busy to post bets this week, which is a bit of a shame, as I hit 3 of 3 today :( Well, an early bet for the next round: Wolfsburg vs Eintrach Frankfurt - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.40 :cash:

Excel sheet updated: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx Not the best weekend, but because of the EL bet on Schalke there's still a small profit for the full week. I probably won't be posting more than a couple more times this year, as I've got a lot of other stuff going on. On Saturday there's an extremely interesting match between the two best teams in the league - best if looking at the recent games. Both teams are undefeated in the last 12 games in the Bundesliga/Europa League! I'll have one unit on this bet: RB Leipzig vs Schalke 04 - Schalke to win without conceding a goal - Odds 7 :Cash: :Cash: I've also put one unit on: VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha Berlin - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.15 :Cash::Cash: Darmstadt vs HSV - BTTS: Yes - Odds 1.85 :Cash: Mainz vs Bayern Münich - AH: Mainz +1 - Odds 3.10 :Cash: (this is likely to be a bit higher later this week, so I recommend waiting a little and following the odds movements)

ROI 23.4, +12,2 units. A few bets for this round. None of them with great value. Don't have time for any written analysis because of all the Unibet Open and advent calendar preparation. HSV vs Werder Bremen - 1X2: 1 - Odds 2.40 :cash: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund - Dembele NTS - Odds 1.35 :cash: Schalke 04 vs Darmstadt - Under 2.5 goals - Odds 2.04 :cash:

And a bet for Thursday: Schalke 04 vs Nizza - Schalke to win without conceding a goal - Odds 3.8 :cash::cash: EDIT: usually I only have 0.25 or 0.5 unit on EL and CL games, but I'll put 1 unit on this one.

Pretty great day yesterday with Schalke's 0-1 win against Wolfsburg. Aubameyang's goal means he's now even bigger favorite to become the top goalscorer - if he does, our total ROI will be around 65 :D Currently we're at 59 settled bets and a ROI of 20! :) I've got one bet for today: Hoffenheim vs HSV - 1X2: 2 - Odds 6 :cash: :cash: :cash: The odds opened at around 4.6, and it has only been increasing since then. It might increase further, but I doubt it. I give HSV roughly 18 % chance of winning, which gives a very nice bet value of 108! :) It's worth keeping an eye on the odds on Werder Bremen to win against Eintracht Frankfurt. The odds opened at 2.50 and is now at 2.90, which starts to become interesting. If the odds reaches 3.1, I'll definitely put a unit on it.

Have had a free couple of hours this morning (10:35 in Japan, as I'm writing this), so had a look at the odds and have found a few bets: VfL Wolfsburg vs Schalke 04 - Gomez NTS - Odds 1.41 :cash::cash: VfL Wolfsburg vs Schalke 04 - Bentaleb to score - Odds 5.00 :cash: VfL Wolfsburg vs Schalke 04 - Away team to win without conceding a goal - Odds 5.30 :cash: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münich - Away team to win without conceding a goal - Odds 4.30 :cash:

I'm flying to Japan tomorrow, and won't be back again before the 23rd, so the thread will be "dead" for the next two weeks :)