BonusPater

And another two early bets for next weekend: Hertha BSC vs HSV - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 :cash::cash: VfL Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 :cash:

What's better than a rainy Sunday and another Schalke defeat... At least it looks like we'll be making some money on the Leipzig game. I've got an early bet for the next round (Unibet with the highest odds on the market): Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.20 :cash::cash::cash: If the odds doesn't decrease in the next 48 hours, I'll add some written analysis, when I'm back at the office :)

Interesting odds development as we're getting close to kickoff. Hoffenheim now at 2.9 (also the opening odds), and I'm considering putting a bit of money on them. Unless the odds increase even more before kickoff, I'll wait a bit though and place an in-play bet. Naldo is out and the Schalke defense will be Riether - Höwedes - Nastasic - Baba. Hoffenheim have made 3 changes: Süle, Toljan and Rupp are in the starting 11, which means there's no room for Polanski, Amiri and Wagner.

That was one important last-minute goal :D Pretty good result so far: 31 bets (27 settled), +6.2 units and a ROI of 27.6 :)

A shame Mainz didn't manage to hold onto the lead. At least Gladbach won with 2, making it a good day so far :) Odds currently 4.35 on Bremen. Will put another half a unit on that outcome :)

I totally agree that the over/under value is in under. Unibet just don't have very high odds on this outcome, compared to the competitors (2.35 and it's been 2.74 on other sites, when it was highest) :)

Two more bets for tomorrow: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Ingolstadt - Borussia -1.5 - Odds 3.25 :cash: Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen - 1X2: 1 - Odds 2.95 :cash:

Still odds 4 but was down to 3.95 earlier today. Let's place the bet now. There's a chance it'll be a little higher closer to kickoff, but I'm not so sure about the odds development in the next 19 hours.

There's so much value in this round of the Bundesliga, but unfortunately the Unibet traders agree too much with me about almost all of the matches, having the markets lowest odds on the interesting outcomes. There's good value in under 3.5 goals in this game, just not at Unibet. I've chosen a bit alternative bet on this game: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg - Aubameyang not to score - Odds 2.38 :cash: EDIT: I was bit fast posting that bet. I actually think there's even better value in Götze not to score, so will have two bets on tonight's game. Götze has played 140 minutes in the Bundesliga this season, and he's only had 1 shot on goal and 4 passes that lead to a shot. Depending on how the match evolves, I think it's very likely that he'll get 60-70 minutes on the pitch. Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg - Götze not to score - Odds 1.68 :cash::cash:

Unibet now with odds 4 on Werder, which is the highest on the market at the moment. It's tempting to place the bet now, as there's good value, but I think there might be even better value if we wait a little :)

Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg, 24/09 18:30 CET - 1X2: 1- odds currently too low (3.65), but should increase closer to kickoff. Should be at least 3.90 before bet is placed - I'll keep an eye on the odds movement and post when/if I place the bet The battle of the north! The Bremen players looked like wights (or walkers, if you're more into the walking dead) under SkripnikSkripnik gone and just 4 days later there was already progress on the pitch. As I've mentioned before, the morale and attitude looked like a big problem under Skripnik, and with Skripnik gone that seemed to had changed for the better against Mainz - a game where they started great but didn't really deserve 3 points after the 90 minutes. The probability of the bad streak continuing is significant, but I think the public will focus too much on the 4 lost games and -11 goalscore, resulting in value closer to kickoff. This is a good bet because Even though Nouri isn't a permanent solution on the bench, it's very, very likely that he'll be in charge of the team again against Wolfsburg. He only had two days on the training ground with the team before the game against Mainz, but as mentioned above, I think there was a clear difference between the Werder team we saw under Skripnik and the Werder team we saw against Mainz. They didn't have the same dead look in their eyes or despairing attitude. Before the season I suggested a bet on HSV to finish best in the north, as I expected both Werder and Wolfsburg to disappoint, and disappointed they have (unfortunately HSV have been horrible as well). Wolfsburg have continued where they left off last season, and they don't look like a team that'll be fighting for the Champions League spots this year. The 1-5 game against Dortmund showed just how far they are from being among the best in the league.Wolfsburg are not doing great, when they're not playing at Volkswagen Arena. Last season they won just 3 of their away games (9 wins at home), they only managed to score an average of 0.88 goals and conceded an average of 1.88 goals away. Wolfsburg are without Gustavo, Guilavogui and Divadi - Gustavo might be ready, but I doubt it.You might lose the bet because Well, it's tempting to say because Werder have perfected playing like a sack of potatoes (Danish saying). The bad streak shouldn't be ignored, and Wolfsburg are a much better team on paper.Werder still struggle with a lot of injuries: Pizarro, Bartels, Kruse, Bargfrede, Garcia and Caldirola.Last season Werder almost got the same number of points away as at home - previous seasons this hasn't been the case though.Expected lineups and team news Werder Wolfsburg Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s) I estimate the chance of Werder winning to be 27 %.

First bet for the weekend: FC Köln vs RB Leipzig - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.25 :cash::cash:

A depressing time to be Schalke fan :annoyed::dissatisfied::sad:😠😞:scared: Result so far: Bets: 21 Won: 8 Average odds: 3.8 Average bet value: 104.7 ROI: +3.5 Units: +0.6 An Excel sheet with the bets placed so far can be found here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/03gzxjg595t8ybd/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx?dl=0. Going forward I'll post status posts like this after each round.

Sorry there hasn't been any written analysis added in a while. I obviously want to add the bets to the thread as early as possible, to give you plenty of time to place the bet, and often I expect the odds to decrease. The decrease in odds is actually why I haven't added much analysis lately. When I've had the time to write, the odds has always slashed, and the value has been gone. This is of course a good sign, but at the same time I want to provide you with more information about the bets I recommend. I promise there'll be some analysis for the matches this weekend. I've got one more bet for you for today: Schalke 04 vs FC Köln - Under 0.5 goals - Odds 11 :cash::cash::cash::cash: It's a public holiday in Malta today, and I was out yesterday, so I'm gonna go back to sleeping now, and probably won't wake up before the game is about to start :D If I do wake up before, I'll add some analysis :)

I'm not new to betting ;) When I was more serious about the betting - read the first post in the blog - I tracked all bets, and of course this included tracking the bet value. After several hundred bets (a little more than 3 seasons), my bet value is less than 1.4 % off the ROI. This obviously isn't perfect, and in the first 6 months, the difference was bigger - I've become more conservative with time :) As mentioned earlier in the blog, I doubt I'll do as good here, as I've done previously. For two reasons: 1. Can only use odds from Unibet, 2. Don't spend as much time on it, as I used to. Well, back to the bet. I am pretty confident about my estimation, and even if I'm 1.4 % off, there's still value, even though it's very, very little. Regarding Schalke. Don't even think two more are needed. If they lose against Köln, the most retarded fans will already start talking about getting a new coach. Just the way it is with Schalke - both love and hate all the emotions :) EDIT: I do have a spreadsheet for the bets posted here. I'll upload it later today :)

Once again some interesting numbers, but I obviously don't agree about the no value part :) The average probability (for the 35 bookmakers I use) for 1X2 is currently at 22-24-54, which gives a bet value 102.6. My personal estimation is 20-25-55, which gives a nice value of 104.5 - no value in odds 1.75 though. I agree with your numbers in the sense that one should be extra cautious when looking at 1-x-2 odds this low. I usually play on the underdog, and as it's already evident from the bets I've posted, I'm not a big fan of odds lower than 2.5. That being said, of course there can be value in the favorite as well. It'd be easy - a little too easy - if there was always value in the underdog :) I'm not gonna comment on Schalke. It has never been an easy team to support - a lot of emotional ups and downs (mostly downs in recent years:teardrop::waterfall:) - and this season doesn't seem to be any different. After taking a step forward against both Bayern and Nizza, we took two steps backwards today. I won't be surprised if Schalke win 3-0 on Wednesday, but I also feel the exact same way about a 0-3 defeat. Gotta ❤️ Die Königsblauen 🆒 I feel like there's great value potential in the Schalke games, but at the same time it's so unpredictable. Under 2.5 against Köln is interesting. What do your numbers say about that bet? :)

Agree with @GotWhatItTakes. Think you should start out with like 10-15 minutes :)

Unibet still only has 1X2 offers on the "Englische Woche"*, so it's a bit difficult to find good early bets. I have managed to find another one though: VfL Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund - 1X2: 2 - Odds 1.9 I haven't had time to write analysis to as many bets as I'd like, but I promise to write one for this bet. Should be posted tomorrow, if the odds hasn't decreased :) *"Englische Woche" = English week. It's a term that's commonly used in Germany, to describe a week where three Bundesliga games are to be played in 7 days (e.g. Sunday, Tuesday and Saturday). The teams in England play more games than the German counterparts, and fairly often play mid-week as well, hence the name.

Odds on Unibet now 2.50, and Skripnik got fired fired this morning = no longer any value in this bet. Hope you were fast and managed to put a bit of money on the bet :) Alexander Nouri (U 23 coach) will be sitting in the hot seat against Mainz, as not only Skripnik but also the two assistants (Frings and Kohfeldt) were let go. It's difficult to say what effect this will have, but I'd rather that Skripnik would have stayed - for the sake of the bet, not Werder :laugh: Nouri will have two days on the training ground with the team, so it probably won't have much of an effect. The morale and attitude has, in my opinion, been a huge issue in the first games, so it'll be interesting to see, how the team react to the new coach :) If you read German, here's more information from Werder's website: http://www.werder.de/aktuell/news/profis/20162017/nouri-uebernimmt-fuer-skripnik-18092016/ :)

Looks like I'll finally manage a positive ROI after this week :) I expected Werder to be horrible, but I am a little surprised they're this bad. Could've been 5-0, and only 22 minutes played. I've watched all their games this season, and it's just getting worse and worse. If Skrypnyk is the still in charge against Mainz on Wednesday, I see great value in an away victory. So, the first bet on the 4th round of the Bundesliga: Werder Bremen vs Mainz - 1X2: 2 - Odds 2.70 The odds are slashing as I'm writing this, and if Mainz do okay tomorrow, I'd expect the odds on an away victory to be around 2.45 before the match starts.

One more bet on the 3rd Bundesliga round: Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig - AG: Sabitzer - odds 4.10 :cash::cash: And these are the bets posted earlier this week. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg - AG: Philipp - Odds 5.00 :cash::cash::cash::cash: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen - AH Borussia -1.5 - Odds 2.38 :cash::cash: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen - 1X2: 1 - Odds 4.25 :cash::cash: Hertha Berlin vs Schalke 04 - AG: Huntelaar - Odds 3.20 :cash::cash: Philipp is still at 5.0, Gladbach almost at the same (2.35), no longer any value in Frankfurt victory (odds 4 at the moment) and Huntelaar is still at 3.2. If you'd like a slightly higher odds than 3.20 on the Schalke game, there's also okay value in Choupo to score at odds 4.6. I'll try and add written analysis for 1-2 more bets this week - definitely won't manage them all.

Borussia M'Gladbach vs Werder Bremen, 17/09 18:30 CET - AH Borussia -1.5 - Odds 2.38 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png It was a bit of a mystery to me, why Werder decided to extend Skripnik's contract, and many fans of the green-whites felt the same. It didn't take long before the German media started talking about the hot seat in Bremen - one game to be more precise - and I doubt he'll make it till the end of October. The team from Bremen has got 0 points and a 1-8 score, and with the next 3 games being against Gladbach, Mainz and Wolfsburg, it's definitely possible that the club will have 0 points after 5 games. Gladbach have gotten off to a decent start, although the 3-1 defeat to Freiburg was a dissapointment - I think Freiburg will have a very decent season and maybe finish mid-table. If the team wish to qualify for Champions League again, a home game against a team as Werder must be won, and even though Gladbach might suffer a serious defeat against City today, I don't think Werder stand a chance against a strong Gladbach offensive. This is a good bet because Werder are really struggling with injuries at the moment. Caldirola, Moisander, Bargfrede, Garcia, Kruse and the one and only Pizarro are all players that would have a very good chance of starting, if it wasn't because they were out with an injury.As we saw against Bayern and to some extend Augsburg, Werder probably has the worst playing defense in the league. The great Dane (Vestergaard), Djilobodji and Galvez (62 games played last season) all left Werder, and the newcomers Moisander (injured), Diagne and Sané haven't been able to stabilize the defense yet.Despite his age (37), Pizarro is still a great striker - 14 goals in 1739 minutes last season - but without him (and Kruse), the Werder attack is not exactly something that'll make defenders lose sleep. The older players would usually be the ones that a team look to, when facing a tough time, but players like Fritz (35), Bartels (29) and Selassie (29) have played terrible and looked like they'd rather be at home than on the pitch - Kicker average grades 3.75, 5 and 5.25 respectively (1 best, 6 worst).When the two teams met in February, Gladbach annihilated Werder 5-1. Borussia-Park is a bit of a fortress; have won the last 7 home games in the Bundesliga and if we ignore the bad start to last season, they only lost to Dortmund and even managed a 3-1 victory against Bayern. You might loose the bet because Gladbach are playing today against City and won't have as fresh legs as the Werder players. I don't think a 2-4 goals defeat against City is that unlikely, so it might not be a Gladbach team full of self-confidence, that'll go on the pitch.I honestly can't think of any more good reasons for this bet to be a loosing one :)Expected lineups and team news Gladbach Werder Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s) I estimate the chance of Gladbach winning with two or more to be 44 %, giving a bet value of 104.7

Early bets on the 3rd Bundesliga round: FC Köln vs SC Freiburg - AG: Philipp - Odds 5.00 Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen - AH Borussia -1.5 - Odds 2.38 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen - 1X2: 1 - Odds 4.25 Hertha Berlin vs Schalke 04 - AG: Huntelaar - Odds 3.20 Written analysis will be added later in the week :)

Had Wagner to score Sunday, but forgot to add the pick to this thread :waterfall: - insane match btw. This is how it looks so far (had Philipp scored a bit earlier, the ROI would've been +66....): Result so far: Bets: 10 Won: 2 Average odds: 3.5 Average bet value: 104.6 ROI: -45 Units: -4.1 Historically I'm not doing great in Champions League - slightly higher RTP than the theoretical RTP, but still loosing - but not having any bets on the first Champions League round is simply not an option, when there're 4 German teams playing :) As I know I'm probably not going to make any money on this long-term, I'm only betting 0.25 units per bet. I doubt I'll have any time for written analysis, but if I do, I'll add it Tuesday. Here're the bets: KP Legia Warszawa vs Borussia Dortmund - AG: Aubameyang - odds 1.87 Bayer Leverkusen vs CSKA Moscow - CSKA to win - odds 6.00 Manchester City vs Borussia Mönchengladbach - AH City -2 - odds 2.95 In Europa League I've actually done pretty well, but it's probably just variance (have two won bets with an odds higher than 7). Got one bet for Thursday, and again it's just 0.25 units. Might add another one when the AG odds are up. Nice vs Schalke 04 - AH Schalke -1 - odds 4.40

And HSV in the lead - the odds opened at 8, which did have a bit of value, but I wanted it to reach 8.5 before posting the pick. Instead of increasing, the odds slashed rather fast and never reached 8 again. I've been active at several different sites in the past 5 years, and this is without comparison the worst and most unlucky start I've ever had :( Variance is a bitch, but a good streak must start soon :) EDIT: Philipp with another goal.... At least it's now 1-1 in Leverkusen, so don't have to feel bad about not posting that pick :)