BonusPater

, sorry about not replying yesterday! - I somehow missed the notification that there was a reply in the thread. I hope you made that double with Götze and Bentaleb :)

Two more bets on the game: Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen - S04 to win to nil - Odds 3.15 Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen - AG: Bentaleb - Odds 4.75 Bentaleb has been one of the best Schalke players this season, and with the current injury situation, he's playing higher up the pitch. He's scored 3 goals, made two assists, had 15 shots on goal and 31 passes that led to a shot on goal, in the Bundesliga (736 minutes played). I believe there's a little value in him to score tomorrow.

I still don't get the odds on Götze not to score, so for the fourth time: HSV vs Borussia Dortmund - Götze NTS - Odds 1.40 :cash: Not as much value as against Schalke or Freiburg, but still worth a bet :)

Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen - Under 3.0 goals - Odds 2.02 If 3 goals are scored, the bet will be voided. I'll add analysis later today or Saturday :)

Aubameyang wasn't even in the squad. Reason isn't really known yet, but seems like a disciplinary issue. Pretty happy with the Götze bet, as he didn't even have an attempt on goal.

A bet for Saturday :) Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.00 :cash:

Got one bet for tomorrow: Schalke 04 vs Krasnodar - Choupo to score - Odds 2.55 :cash: As Embolo, Huntelaar and di Santo are all injured, Choupo will be starting up front. He's very likely to get all 90 minutes on the pitch, as Schalke are very short on creative players at the moment. Choupo is always good for a lot of attempts on goals (one every 30 min in the Bundesliga, and that has been as a wing), and I expect at least 5 from him tomorrow. Will put half a unit on this one.

Probably the only infrastructure related thing Malta actually have managed to nail :D

I'll log a case to get it corrected :)

 http://www.bundesliga.de/de/bundesliga/spieltag/9-spielbegegnung-1__fc_koeln-hamburger_sv.jsp?statistics. Agree about EL, think they need a year or two more before playing CL :) Two bets on the Dortmund game this Wednesday: Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting CP - Götze not to score - Odds 1.44 :Cash: Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting CP - Aubameyang to score - Odds 1.72 :Cash: 0.5 unit on each :)

As 50 bets have now been posted in this thread, I think it's time to have a look at the results so far. The numbers look very good, but I'm not really satisfied with the written analysis I've managed to post in recent weeks. The issue has been that I've posted a lot of very early bets, and the odds has usually slashed 24-48 hours after posting it, and often so much that there's no value. Not having the time to actually write the analysis has also been an issue. I'll try and find more special bets, as the odds on these is less likely to change, and it'll give me more time to put some words behind the bet. It's looking pretty great for the season bets that were placed pre-season. Choupo to be top goalscorer for Schalke, odds 5.5. Both Huntelaar and Embolo are out due to injuries, and Choupo is likely to get some time up front. Both Embolo and Choupo are currently at two goals each, and Huntelaar has scored 1. Aubameyang to be top goalscorer in the Bundesliga, odds 9. Aubameyang has had a great season so far, and him and Lewandowski are both at 7 goals. Modeste is at 11 after a hattrick in the weekend, but I doubt Köln will play this great throughout the season. Highest odds on the market is currently 4. HSV to finish best in the North, odds 5.5. As expected Wolfsburg have dissapointed, but HSV have also been terrible. Bremen are currently 15th with 7 points, Wolfsburg 16th with 6 points and HSV 18th with 2 points - they can't be to happy in the north of Germany. I'm pretty happy with the bet at this point, as I don't think HSV have played as bad as the two points suggests. Only got one unit on this bet, and three on each of the other two. The numbers: Bets placed: 50 (47 settled) Bets won: 19 Units in play: 47.25 Units won: 7.255 ROI: 18 Average bet value: 105.5 Average odds: 4.1 Excel sheet: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx

A Ruhr-derby is never boring ;) A bit of a shame with all those cards flying around, could have been more entertaining if they were allowed to play a bit more rough. Very strong first half from Schalke (Dortmund didn't have a single chance), but they started looking a bit tired towards the end of the game, which meant more space for Dortmund. Think both teams are satisfied with a draw :) Small profit on the game with the two NTS bets :)

Yeah, put a bit on them when the odds opened at 7, and then a bit more at 6.85, when I posted the bet in this thread. Got 2.5 units in total + 2 units on Götze NTS and 1 unit on Aubameyang NTS (only got 1 unit on Götze in connection with this blog, but placed a bit more :) )

Apparently embedding videos from Facebook doesn't work very well. If you want to watch the first one: https://www.facebook.com/OfficialMaxMeyer/videos/vb.148992021932531/709321305899597/?type=2&theater

I had planned to write a piece of analysis on the 1X2 bet I've posted, but as the odds is down by quite a lot, I'll focus on two other bets. "Die Mutter aller Derbys“ , the mother of all derbys. Dortmund - Schalke, in German football it doesn't get any bigger than this. Pure emotions; love and hatred - what football is (or rather should be) all about. Below a few videos from the Schalke training - do you see scenes like this at Real Madrids or Barcelonas training ground before El Clasico? :) I've found two bets with good value: Aubameyang not to score, bet value 105.6. If we only look at his goalscoring stats, this might seem like a weird bet; he's scored 7 goals in 7 Bundesliga games. He's has 24 shots on goal, which also doesn't exactly make this look like a great bet either. So how come there's value? He's been struggling with a calf injury lately, and Thursday he couldn't participate in the team training (did some individual running). He is expected to start though, but I doubt that he'll play the entire game, as he simply can't be 100 % fit just yet (he doesn't risk anything by playing today, as it's not a muscle injury). A strong defensive hasn't exactly been Schalkes trademark in recent years, but this might be about to change. The 3 CB's (Nastasic, Naldo and Höwedes at RB) seem to have stabilized the defensive, and the team has been playing very compact recently - they've only let in one goal in the last three BL games. Fährmann is of course also a force to be reckoned with, and 1-on-1 situations is his speciality (Aubameyang creates quite a lot of these). Götze not to score, bet value 107.2. The odds on Götze to score just don't make any sense, and it's been like this the entire season. The average odds on Götze to score today is around 2.45, so the bookmakers give him like a 33-35 % chance of scoring (low payback on this type of bet). If you look at all three seasons he played in Bayern, he did indeed score 22 goals in 73 games, which gives him approx. 30 % chance of scoring/70 % not to score. Actually he only score in 17 of the 73 games (he scored two in some), so based on this, his chance of scoring is more like 23 %. Then keep in mind that in his last season, the goals he scored were against opponens as HSV (8-0!!), Hoffenheim (4-0), Werder (6-0!), Köln (2-0), Paderborn (4-0) and Stuttgart (2-0). As mentioned earlier in this post, Schalke have been fairly strong defensively in recent games, so they shouldn't be compared to opponents like this. This should move another few percent, so we're at 20 % or so for him to score = 80 % not to score. This is without keeping in mind that he has played 302 minutes (5 games) and only had TWO, I say again TWO shots on goal. Assuming he plays all 90 minutes, he's only got a 30 % chance of actually getting a shot on goal - not sure he'll get all 90 minutes. He has had 11 passes that led to a shot, but still 0 assists this season. Oh, and I forgot to mention that he played 120 minutes just three days ago. I'm going with a very, very conservative 76 % on him not to score, which gives a decent bet value of 107.2.

I'm not sure this guess was made with a cool head.😏 haha, probably not ;) I'm not hiding I'm a huge Schalke supporter, and that might influence me a little bit in this case, but I really think there's a bit of value. Will explain on Friday ;) Tough opponent Dortmund are up against today, no wonder it's still 0-0 😏

Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 6.85 Will add written analysis on Friday :)

Excel doc updated: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx (ROI 18.5) An early bet on the next round: Hoffenheim vs Hertha - 1X2: 1 - Odds 2.40 Considering a bet on Schalke against Dortmund (next week), but I'll probably wait and see how the match tomorrow goes :)

Looking good with Darmstadt but don't know what Dortmund are doing - feels bad with the bet, but can't help but smile a little when it's Dortmund :D A bit of a longshot for the late game today: Bayern München vs Mönchengladbach - 1X2: 2 - Odds 17 :cash: I've been too busy to update the "blog" this week, sorry!

It's not so easy because Unibet translated the page to my local language and after I log in the page switches from english to my local language. I think you are from another country (my guess is Bulgaria:Laugh:) so you can use the english based homepage. @JeppeL, @MarcoV, @testuser1, Does the main site have an option to change what language you see it in? Doesn't appear to be any dropdown menus or anything on .com or .eu Also, everyone is a Zopp fan today :) No, there's unfortunately no such option - would be really useful for when you want to share stuff. Only option is to permanently change the language on the account :Annoyed:

The below graphs are pretty useless with the few bets we've got, but as I was making a template for it anyway, why not just share it :)

I've found three bets for the next three days. The value is very limited, and as it's CL/EL, I'm only going to have 0.25 unit on each. Even though I do think there's value, these bets are primarily for the entertainment. Sporting vs Dortmund - AH: Dortmund -1 - Odds 3.25 Bayern München vs PSV - AH: PSV +2.5 - Odds 1.58 Krasnodar vs Schalke - Both teams to score: No - Odds 2.38 Excel doc updated: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx

Having a difficult time finding value in the early bets this week (at least on Unibet) :annoyed: Well, I've found a bet that's a little interesting: FC Ingolstadt vs Borussia Dortmund - 1X2: 2 - odds 1.60 :cash: There's very little value in this, but value nonetheless. There're a few outcomes that could become interesting when the public money starts to affect the market.

I'm only fan of one team; Schalke :) Here's a bit of info from the first post: "It all started back in the 2000/2001 season, when the Danish forward Ebbe Sand had a fantastic season at Schalke 04. My interest was aroused; I read a lot about Schalke and the Bundesliga, and I started watching a lot of games as well. It didn't take long, before I was hooked - I had become a Bundesliga junkie. In the years to come, I'd spend countless hours in front of the tv and computer, watching and analyzing games, reading Bundesliga news etc. The number of Schalke matches I've missed in the last 2 years, can be counted on one hand, and I've obviously been to Gelsenkirchen a few times as well."

Odds on Darmstadt already down to 4.5 = no longer any value. I expect the odds to increase a little next week (will probably get close to 5.25 again at some point) :)