BonusPater

No doubt they've done great so far this season, but they've also had the marginals on their side in pretty much every single game. They've been extremely effective, scoring on 37 % of their chances (3rd best in the league), and Modeste has been an absolute beast. Schmadtke and Stöger of course deserve some credit. It is of course surprising that they're doing this well, but I don't think it's come out of nowhere. Since the signing of Stöger and Schmadtke for the 13/14 season, they've slowly but surely improved. Köln wasn't exactly a quiet and peaceful place (nothing compared to the nut house in Schalke in recent years, but still) prior to the 13/14 season, but Schmadtke managed to change this and he's consistently improved the squad. Having managed to extend the contract with key players such as Modeste, Hector and Bittencourt has also been key. 13/14: promotion from the 2nd Bundesliga14/15: 12th in the Bundesliga15/16: 9th in the Bundesliga 16/17: 3rd at the momentNext week they're playing against one of the other positive suprises this season, Hertha, and I think it'll be difficult for them to get any points in this game. Luckily for Köln they've got Hoffenheim (DFB Pokal) and Hamburg in the following two games, both at home, so they'll probably be back to winning right after the Hertha game. I do think they've got a very good chance of being in top 5 after 10 games, and even when we reach the Christmas break, they're probably 5th-7th.

Despite 0.5 unit profit this round (if Leipzig actually manage to win the match), I can't help but feel a little dissapointed. The three other bets were as close to being winning as possible, but the marginals just weren't on our side :) One early bet for next round: SV Darmstadt vs VfL Wolfsburg - 1X2: 1 - Odds 5.25 :cash: I expect to have a couple more as soon as the AH and OU bets are on the site :) Excel doc updated: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx

The three bets for today/tomorrow that I posted like two weeks ago: FC Augsburg vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 2.65 FC Köln vs Ingolstadt - AH: Home -1 - Odds 2.6 VfL Wolfsburg vs RB Leipzig - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.50 Schalke now at 2.25 (obviously no value), Leipzig at 3.1 (not really interesting either) and Köln at 2.95 (good value!). I expect to post a few early bets during the weekend, so stay tuned. I've said it a few times in the thread already, but I will try and be better at posting written analysis :)

A shame with the Hertha Berlin bet, would've been nice with an extra 11 units :) I haven't been following the 2. Bundesliga closely this season, so I can't really say if there's value or not. My initial thought is that there isn't any value, and the odds would have to be around 2:15, for it to be interesting :)

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx try this link instead. I have been a little busy lately, so haven't had time to follow the odds movements. I'll have a look today or tomorrow and maybe post a pick or two more :)

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx try this link instead. I have been a little busy lately, so haven't had time to follow the odds movements. I'll have a look today or tomorrow and maybe post a pick or two more :)

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx try this link instead. I have been a little busy lately, so haven't had time to follow the odds movements. I'll have a look today or tomorrow and maybe post a pick or two more :)

These are my current aliases: Bonus pater (bonus pater familias) is a term from Roman law which refers to an average Joe (reasonable person in English law).

You're right. One of the guys reported in this thread was actually just a bad player :)

Excel doc updated: https://db.tt/6j8JMSGH One more early bet: FC Köln vs Ingolstadt - AH: Home -1 - Odds 2.6 :Cash::Cash:

Not the most lucky betting weekend, but it's looking good for the season bets Choupo to be TGS for Schalke and Aubameyang to be TGS in the league :) Mainz should've won today, and HSV could just as well had ended 3-4. Status after the 6th Bundesliga round: # of bets: 36 # of settled bets: 33 # of won bets: 13 Units in play: 35.5 Average odds: 3.9 Average bet value: 105.7 ROI 9.4 Units won: 2.68 A few early bets for the next round: FC Augsburg vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 2.65 :cash::cash: Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC - 1X2: 2 - Odds 12 :cash::cash::cash: VfL Wolfsburg vs RB Leipzig - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.50 :cash::cash: EDIT: Added value emoticons.

I don't know much about this subject, but personally I've never seen a chip dumper with a successful withdrawal. One of the guys reported in this thread did make a withdrawal, but it wasn't approved, and a poker check was initiated. @mirc & @Fredrik, thanks, I'll look into it.

So, haven't found further bets for the 6th round, but might post 1-2 later today or tomorrow. Below the four bets previously posted for this round. Hertha BSC vs HSV - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund - AH Dortmund -1 - Odds 3.1 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png VfL Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.20 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png Mainz is now at 4.60 and Gladbach is back at 3.20. The other two bets are not that interesting, but HSV might increase closer to kickoff.

Thanks for reporting this. Pretty obvious chip dumping. Both accounts have been closed.

It's a loss indeed - he's probably been the best Gladbach player this season. Hahn and Hazard is not a bad attack though, and that he's missing doesn't change a whole lot for me. Schalke's defense has looked horrible the entire season - including yesterday - and it doesn't exactly take a Messi or Ronaldo to score - even Bendtner would stand a chance :)

@startelver, my initial estimation was a 33 % chance for a Gladbach victory, which was a bit conservative, but now I think it's quite accurate. Schalke didn't play their best game yesterday, but the team spirit was different, they were fighting more and playing more like a team. The odds is currently increasing, and as we're always a bit slow updating the odds, we currently have one of the lowest odds on the market. I'd wait a little and see if the odds increase in the next 5 hours. It needs be to be at least 3.10, before it's interesting :)

Status before the 6th Bundesliga round: # of bets: 31 # of settled bets: 29 # of won bets: 13 Units in play: 31.5 Average odds: 3.9 Average bet value: 105.7 ROI 27.3 Units won: 6.68 All bets can be seen here: https://db.tt/6j8JMSGH

I'll just let the score speak for itself ;)

Nothing changed since the goal ;) they'll keep playing like this till there's 15-20 min left, and maybe the entire match - when you're superior to your opponent, playing way better and they don't create any chances, it doesn't make sense to park the bus :)

I don't remember the last time I saw Schalke park the buss with success :D If they're leading 1-0 with 15-20 minutes left, they might try, but else I don't really see it happening tbh - didn't do it against Nice. It's not really the Schalke way to play, and they don't have the defensive stability to do it. As expected, there're quite a lot of changes in the starting 11 for Schalke. Defensively it looks quite strong, but the team might be struggling a bit in the other end of the pitch, which obviously doesn't speak for this bet. Fährmann Höwedes - Naldo - Nastasic - Kolasinac Geis - Bentaleb Schöpf - Meyer - Goretzka Embolo CtiCqayWEAIZI0b

And a few words about why I think there's value in this bet (wanted to post the bet asap, as Unibet currently has the highest odds and it has started to slash): Yes, Schalke at the moment, and they've had the worst ever start to a Bundesliga season. The opening odds was 2.07, and it was around 2.17 before the public money made this bet interesting. Let's be honest; the majority don't do much research before placing a bet, and to many an odds close to 5 will be very interesting, when the other team has lost 5 league games in a row. There's a huge difference between the quality of these two teams, and even though Schalke haven't impressed, they haven't been as bad as the Bundesliga table would suggest. They played a very decent game in Nice - should have won with at least two goals - and Salzburg disappointed at home against Krasnodar. I'm fairly certain we'll see some tactical changes from Weinzierl, which I expect to have a positive effect - can of course have the opposite effect as well, but hey, how much worse can it get ;) EDIT: Just as I finished writing this, the odds decreased a little. It's now 2.43, which still has a bit of value.

Even though it's Europa League, I'll bet one unit on this bet, as I'm pretty confident about my estimation - know a fair bit about the Austrian Bundesliga as well. Schalke 04 vs RB Salzburg - AH Schalke -1 - Odds 2.48 EDIT: Excel doc updated: https://db.tt/6j8JMSGH

One more, and possibly the last, bet on the 6th round: Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund - AH Dortmund -1 - Odds 3.1 :cash:

Odds on Gladbach and HSV slashed just hours after posting them. Gladbach is now at 2.85 (no value), HSV at 4.10 (not worth a bet either) and Mainz are at 4.40, which is still the highest on the market and worth a few pennies.

Status after the 5th Bundesliga round: # of bets: 31 # of settled bets: 28 # of won bets: 12 Units in play: 30.5 Average odds: 3.9 Average bet value: 105.8 ROI 22.1 Units won: 5.2 All bets can be seen here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/03gzxjg595t8ybd/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx?dl=0