BonusPater

Result so far: No bets settled. Bayern München vs Werder Bremen - Bayern AH -3 - odds 2.48 This is an Asian Handicap bet on Bayern München. If Bayern win with 4 or more, the bet is won, if Bayern win with 3, the bet is voided and if Bayern lose, draw or win with two or less, the bet is lost. The title favorites from the south against the relegation contenders from the north. The fans of "Die Grün-Weißen" surely look back at the 2003-2004 season with longing. Just 10 years ago, the team from Bremen was the main title contenders along with Bayern. Today they're merely considered a mediocre team by Bundesliga standards, and they're expected to finish in the bottom half of the table this season. Bayern is hated and loved for the dominance in recent years (among other things) and the bookmakers estimate their chance of winning this season to be almost 90 %! This is David against Goliath, and I don't think the outcome will be close to that of the Books of Samuel. It's not a question of whether Bayern will win, it's a question of how much they'll win. This is a good bet because Bremen have had a bad pre-season and Sunday they lost 2-1 in the German Cup against Sportfreunde Lotte. The name sounds familiar? Probably not; they played Regionalliga last season and are playing in the 3rd best division this season. Defensively Bremen has looked weak, and it's honestly difficult to predict who'll be in the starting 11, as no one really has impressed.Not only did Bremen lose the game against a 3rd division team, Max Kruse also got seriously injured. Kruse came from Wolfsburg this season and was supposed to form a goal scoring duo with Pizarro. Speaking of Pizarro; the Peruvian probably wont be ready for the Bayern game either.In Bayern's 17 home games last season, 6 of them was won with a goal margin of 4 or more and 2 were won with a goal margin of 3. In the home game against Werder (March) they won 5-0 - they also met in the German Cup a month later, where Bayern won 2-0.Last season Bayern managed an impressive 18.4 shots per game and 80 goals (2.35 per game, 3 per home game).Bayern have had a decent pre-season and a good start to the season. First they won 2-0 against Dortmund in the Super Cup (the result does not reflect how good Dortmund actually played in this game - hurts a little to write those words) and Friday they won 0-5 against Carl Zeiss Jenna. Lewandowski scored the first three goals of the game. You might loose the bet because Of Bremen's 9 lost away games last season, 5 of them were with a goal margin of 1, and just 3 were with a goal margin of 3 or more. On average, Bremen conceded 1.91 goals per match, 2.06 in away games.Bayern are without Coman and Robben. On a more positive note both Alonso and Thiago will be ready for the game this FridayBayern without Boateng is a much weaker Bayern - in my opinion he's currently the best CD in the world.Despite the good result against Dortmund in the Super Cup, Ancelotti's troops were not at all convincing.Expected lineups and team news Bayern Notable injuries: Boateng, Costa, Robben, Coman, Badstuber Werder Bremen Notable injuries: Kruse, Pizarro, Bargfrede Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s) I estimate the chance of winning the bet to be around 42 %, giving a bet value of 104.2. Recommend 1 unit on this bet.

Aubameyang now slashed to 6.5 and you should not put any money on it. Odds on the two other bets remain unchanged, and the chance of winning is unchanged for the Choupo bet and slightly lower (insignificant) for the HSV bet. Will be interesting to see which two players Schalke sign this week - or if they even manage to sign two. Below a bet for those of you who like a high odds. This is not a value bet, and it wont be included in my score for this thread - it's just for the entertainment, as the Bundesliga isn't starting before next Friday :) The bet is a 6 of 8, which basically means that you'll still win, even if two of the outcomes aren't correct (obviously not as much as if they're all correct). You're placing 28 sixfolds and the potential payout is 15562 with a stake of 1 per sixfold (so total stake is 28).

I think it's difficult to draw any conclusions based on a super cup match, but I do think that: 1. Dortmund looked really good 2. There's certainly no value in Bayern to win the title 3. Odds 8 on Dortmund is very interesting (Unibet currently offer odds 7) I haven't seen the 1.5 on Dortmund to finish 1st or 2nd, but it is certainly an interesting odds, even though I do expect a good season from both Leverkusen and Schalke. You can get 1.3 on Dortmund H2H with Leverkusen (1.27 on Unibet). I doubt it'll happen, but if Dortmund to be the highest scoring team increase to 2.00, I see okay value in this bet. Now that we're talking Dortmund, Unibet currently got odds 9 on Aubameyang to be the top goalscorer in the Bundesliga, which is the highest on the market, and the average for the rest of the market is just around 6. This will be the last season bet I recommend in this thread - sorry there's no written analysis for this one, might add it later this week, if I can find some time for it. As a last comment, I can add that Dortmund are favorites to score the most goals this season (Dortmund 1.90, Bayern 2.15). The three season bets for this year's Bundesliga: 1. Aubameyang to be the top goalscorer - odds 9.0 (value = 117). 3 units 2. To score the most goals in the Bundesliga for Schalke: Choupo-Moting - odds 5.5 (value = 115.5). 3 units 3. To finish best in the North: HSV - odds 5.5 (value = 104.5). 1 unit

Didn't last very long. After one very unlucky and one very stupid all-in, I'm out :)

Didn't manage to set up a stream for this one, but will probably do it for the next one :) Currently chipleader :)

If we do manage to finish 1st and 2nd, we'll arrange a € 1000 freeroll :)

It's exactly as  wrote. It's a staff tournament where the winner and second place will go to UO Copenhagen -  and I expect to finish 2nd and 1st respectively :)

Forgot to add information about units recommended. I recommend 3 units on the Choupo bet and 1 on the HSV one :) I expect to have 3-4 bets ready for the for the first round of the Bundesliga, a couple of them probably being special bets.

We're getting close - just 16 days and we'll be blessed with the great weekly Bundesliga games once again! I've had a look at the season bets and found a couple which I believe there's a bit of value in. I'll probably add a few more in the coming days. To score the most goals in the Bundesliga for Schalke: Choupo-Moting Choupo is not exactly known as a consistent player, and last season we saw both several excellent and horrible games from him. When he's at his best, he's a joy to watch, and I expect this season to be his best ever. He has had a fantastic pre-season so far, being the, by far, best Schalke player on the opponents part of the pitch - he had a great finish to last season as well, with 3 goals in the last 4 Bundesliga games. If he continue in this form, we'll surely see quite a few goals from him. In the past years, Choupo has roughly scored about 9 goals per season, in the Bundesliga. Huntelaar is at around 11 goals and Embolo has scored 20 goals in total, in the past two seasons for Basel. I expect Weinzierl will either continue with the 4-2-3-1 formation or play with three center backs (Höwedes, Naldo & Nastasic) in a 5-2-2-1 formation. In either case, there's only room for one "Mittelstürmer" (striker), and Di Santo, Huntelaar and Embolo will all fight for this position - Embolo will probably end up playing as a winger most of the time, if Weinzierl decides not to play with two strikers. Schöpf, Sam and Choupo are the only "real" wingers in the current squad, and Choupo being the strongest, I expect he'll get a lot of time on the pitch this season - Sam will probably be injured for half the season, like in past years. The arrival of Baba (on loan from Chelsea) is not at all bad for this bet either. Baba and Choupo will make up a very strong left side (at least when attacking). I think Kolasinac will be the preferred choice in a 4-2-3-1 formation and Baba in a 5-2-2-1 formation. I estimate the chance of winning to be around 21 %, giving a very decent bet value of 115.5 To finish best in the North: HSV The second bet is on which team will have the best finishing position in the North. Wolfsburg are, rightfully so, big favorites, but I do think HSV stand a better chance than what's currently reflected in the odds. Last season, "Die Wölfe" and "Der Dino" were separated by just 4 points, finishing 8th and 10th respectively (both teams got 19 points in the 2nd half of the tournament). With the signing of Kostic and Halilovic, the HSV offensive is a force to be reckoned with, and I expect Der Dino to perform slightly better than last season. Wolfsburg have let go of Schürrle, Kruse and Naldo, and they've signed Gerhardt, Bruma, Kuba and Divida. The strength of the squad is, in my opinion, about the same as last season, but things might change in the coming weeks, of course. It's also worth noting that Vierinha will be out for around six weeks, and Draxler is not exactly thrilled about having to spend at least another year at Volkswagen Arena. I don't expect much of Werder Bremen this season, and would be surprised, if they managed to make it into top 10. Chance of finishing "Best in North": Wolfsburg: 69 % HSV: 19 % Werder Bremen: 12 % Bet value = 104.5

Not bad. Congratulations! :)

Haha, well, the trust thing is mutual :smileytongue: I might do a few bets during the championship. Will check out all of our markets tomorrow - I haven't had much time to look at this, with the community launch taking up pretty much all my time :)

We're obviously not allowed to bet with Unibet for real money, but we can bet with the competitors :) From https://www.unibetcommunity.com/t5/Welcome-how-to-s/Meet-the-Community-Team/m-p/2277 : The day I turned 18, I opened an account with several bookmakers, Unibet obviously being one of them, and I've been playing ever since. For some time I had my own blog with Bundesliga picks, and I was a Bundesliga expert at the largest Danish betting community as well. When I was done with upper secondary school, I wanted to move abroad, and a move to the land of bookmakers, Malta, made perfect sense. I moved to Malta to work in Customer Support for Unibet, and 8-9 months later I moved on to work with data and service improvements in the same department. I've also worked as a Customer Experience Analyst in London - also for Unibet - and now I'm the Customer Community Manager. Before joining Unibet, I was self-employed, primarily working with project management.

It all started back in the 2000/2001 season, when the Danish forward Ebbe Sand had a fantastic season at Schalke 04. My interest was aroused; I read a lot about Schalke and the Bundesliga, and I started watching a lot of games as well. It didn't take long, before I was hooked - I had become a Bundesliga junkie. In the years to come, I'd spend countless hours in front of the tv and computer, watching and analyzing games, reading Bundesliga news etc. The number of Schalke matches I've missed in the last 2 years, can be counted on one hand, and I've obviously been to Gelsenkirchen a few times as well. About 5-6 years ago I started betting on the Bundesliga. I got off to a less than optimal start, but I learned a lot and my game slowly improved. A few years later I had my own Bundesliga betting blog with a ROI of +10, and I was also a Bundesliga expert at the largest Danish betting community for a short while. When I started working for Unibet, I didn't feel like I had the time to bet seriously anymore, and for almost a year, I didn't place a single bet. Today I'm only betting for the entertainment, but I like to believe, that I've still got the ability to spot a bet with value. I'm going to challenge myself, and will post a few Bundesliga bets every week, with the goal of creating a small profit. I'll keep score of the bets in this post. As there's quite a long time till the next Bundesliga game, I'll temporarily be using this thread to share my view on transfers, season bets and anything Bundesliga, that I find interesting. EDIT: now that we've got the new emoticons implemented, I'll start using a money bag scale to indicate the value. This info will be added to the heading of each bet. :cash: = 100-103.9 BV :cash::cash: = 104-106.9 BV :cash::cash::cash: = 107-109.9 BV :cash::cash::cash::cash:= 110-112.9 :cash::cash::cash::cash::cash: = >112.9 An Excel sheet with all bets can be found here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/03gzxjg595t8ybd/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx?dl=0