Poker Release Notes 3.28

[Livertool]

7 hours ago, SShcherbyna said:

Your comment makes sense, but in this case, 40 euros is also not the best option. It is better to stop at 10 euros, because with the same EV as at 40 euros, the volatility is much lower.

You are probly right but I was thinking of situation that you already got to last flip. Then stepping back to 1000bb would be -EV 😄

[GR1ZZL3R]

11 hours ago, Livertool said:

That is the dilemma. Thou you were absolutely right about odds and value in long run, you gotta consider how often you get in that position. 

Yes, it is a dilemma and you can consider how often you get in that position but it doesn't alter the maths, winning more than you lose for a 50/50 flip must be a yes. Always.

 

11 hours ago, SShcherbyna said:

Your comment makes sense, but in this case, 40 euros is also not the best option. It is better to stop at 10 euros, because with the same EV as at 40 euros, the volatility is much lower.

   Why stop at 10e though, your next flip is 50/50 to win 20e, double your money. At 40e your next flip is to win 100e, more than double. I think points at which to consider stopping are when you have jumped from 20BP to 50BP or from a 2e Banzai to a 5e Banzai, in each case you've won more than you could have lost, the perfect situation for 50/50 flips. If you continue though and reach 40e your next flip, a 50/50 again, will win you more than you lose so must be taken. I think another thing to consider is that you're not actually losing money, before you started you didn't have that 40e, if you lose the flip you still don't but have actually lost nothing. It's a flip, it's free money, when the odds are in your favour you must take them, otherwise what's the point of playing? That's like saying I've won 9 flips in a row so am due to lose, (Gambler's Fallacy) right at the point where the odds are in your favour. Still not an easy decision though but only one correct one. 

[SShcherbyna]

35 minutes ago, GR1ZZL3R said:

Still not an easy decision though but only one correct one. 

All this is true, we must always think in terms of distance, because only this will give maximum profit.
But.
Imagine the situation. You are given 1 flip once a year for life, you must choose one of the options:
1. Each flip with a 50% probability will give you 10,000 euros. EV 5000 euros.
2. Each flip with a probability of 0.01% will give 55,000,000 euros. EV 5500 euros.
What to choose?
In the first option, you will receive 10,000 euros every two years, which will have a good effect on your budget.
In the second option, 1 person out of 100 (if they all live 100 years) will be able to receive this prize at least once in their lifetime.

Of course, the value of 10,000 euros is different for each person. For me personally, this would be an incredibly cool bonus that would greatly affect the quality of my life. Therefore, it will be more rational for me to choose the first option, although it is less profitable at a distance.

Same with the Banzai Flip. For some, 40 euros can double their bankroll, and for others it is a daily rake. And the rationality of deciding to stop at exactly 40 euros will be completely different for everyone, although mathematically the value is the same for both players.

That's what I think Livertool wanted to say and that's why XY chose the less profitable option.

[Livertool]

42 minutes ago, GR1ZZL3R said:

50/50 flip must be a yes. Always.

In theory yes. But if fear of losing what you already got trump what you may get, then it is worth not to do it.

Yes, trump is synonym to kick ass 😉

[XY]

Quite interesting debate , and that is exactly what I wanted to see. 😉
I agree with most what is posted from you guys , but would never accept offer 
"but in this case, 40 euros is also not the best option. It is better to stop at 10 euros, because with the same EV as at 40 euros, the volatility is much lower." by SShcherbyna 

Yeah , from mathematical point of view it makes perfectly sense, but I would never take Banzai ticket as a prize as there is obligation to cash it out.
You need to play certain amount of hands to receive reward that left after hands have been played .
Also, taking into consideration how volatile Banzai game is you could end up empty handed after just 5 hands played .

I would  always gamble such a prize rather than taking it.  

In this certain situ

In this certain situation , it is quite amazing how our thinking  changes if we would have 5000€ on account ,and play this flip game , and how we would play it having 50€ bankroll. 

Edited August 4, 2023 by XY

[GR1ZZL3R]

   It's usually an interesting debate "What would you do if..." but I'm looking at it in real life, not a theoretical lifetime possibility of fabulous riches, nice though that would be. And me having said you must always gamble in these situations XY raises a very pertinent point, if you don't like the current prize why take it, whether plus or minus ev. There's loads on YT about this sort of thing, "I'll give you £10 now or you can toss a coin and win £50." The majority, being risk averse humans take the cash now even though they're turning down a better ev offer. There just aren't enough gamblers in the world. 😁

[Livertool]

13 hours ago, GR1ZZL3R said:

There just aren't enough gamblers in the world. 

That is just the thing with this, it is pure gambling to shoot till the end even if it is sensible in long run. If you get over 2 odds for 50/50 h2h bet, you don't empty your bank account and go all in for it just because in long run you'll win but with these flips you don't have a choice. Maybe in the future they add option to run the last flip multiple times 😄 

But yeah, everyone does what they think is best option for them, having said that i would have probly pressed flip in that situation 🤑