Horse Sense.

[GR1ZZL3R]

Horse sense is the thing that a horse has which prevents it betting on people.

Not having much horse sense myself, particularly when it comes to betting, I'm going to go ahead anyway and see if i can make some sort of profit along the way. I have a habit, mentioned elsewhere, of only keeping records while the going is good so putting these selections out for public scrutiny will hopefully make me give the system a fair crack of the whip, a month long trial or till my bankroll (£200) disappears. I'm a bit nervous about this but if I don't do it I'll never know.

 

 

I was going to try to keep the selections down to just a few per day, quality before quantity, but leaving the odd longshot unbacked hurts, so all picks will be posted and updated daily, however many.

The stakes will reflect the strength of confidence, misplaced or otherwise, so I've broken the picks down into sections of varying stakes, each sections results will be tagged seperately and then an overall total given. 

So here goes nothing.

DAY 1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[XY]

Like the idea! 👍

Thought about to make something similar,soccer related,but will take some more time to think about it.
Don't wanna expose myself too much to Unibet guys. 😉

I think this is the best way to show other guys,and yourself,how tough is to make money from betting,and how thin is line,nowadays,between winning and losing betslip.

Good luck with this,and hope,after very few hurdles,you will pass through finish line with a few more pennies on your betting balance! 

*if you wish,I could keep track of red ones 😉 if they are too much to take for you :Laugh:

[GR1ZZL3R]

@XY  Thankyou. There are a few reasons I'm doing this but the main one is that I just don't seem to stick at a project long enough to give it a chance, a couple of losing days and I stop keeping records or abandon it, this way I'm committed to seeing it through, good or bad. This is following a couple of things that I've read and watched about mental attitudes and not being scared to fail. It is going to be tough but I don't think the number crunchers from Unibet have any reason to lose sleep (just yet.) 🤣 I like my football bets but am very choosy, so only get 3-5 per week, so it would be interesting to follow if you do decide to do a blog.

DAY 1 RESULTS.

A great start, one out of one, but in the end only one more winner so a losing start.

Two winners, seven losers, Staked £18.00, Returned £13.42, a loss of £4.58. :teardrop: Could have been worse, so I'm happy enough. Once I've got a few days results I'll display them in an easier to read format and I'll also in race order rather than by stakes.

DAY 2.

 

 

 

[XY]

Could you tell us what we need to pay attention for @GR1ZZL3R  when we are about to place a bet/s on horse racings?

Do we look on horse age? His weight? History on certain races?
What impact jockey has? Is he most important factor in exploiting horses capacity?
Etc...

I think community members,that are not much into horse racings,would appreciate if you could give us some guidelines,from yours perspective and experience. :happy:

[GR1ZZL3R]

Day 2 RESULTS.

Just the sort of results you're looking for when the poker gods are messing with your head. Three winners, one odds on which I never back live, but I'd taken the 11/10 so not too bad.

Three wins, two losses, Staked £21.00, returned a profit of £18.55. 👍

Total, five from fourteen, Staked £39.00, Profit: £13.97.   😃👍

 

 

 

 

[GR1ZZL3R]

---

@XY wrote:

Could you tell us what we need to pay attention for @GR1ZZL3R  when we are about to place a bet/s on horse racings?

Do we look on horse age? His weight? History on certain races?

What impact jockey has? Is he most important factor in exploiting horses capacity?

Etc...

I think community members,that are not much into horse racings,would appreciate if you could give us some guidelines,from yours perspective and experience. :happy:

---

Some interesting questions @XY 

You can make your selections based on virtually nothing, maybe the horse has your girlfriend's name, it's your favourite colour, or simply it's the favourite, or you can study for hours to pick one solid bet, taking many many factors into consideration. I do have certain things I'm looking for, I tend to flick through each race fairly quickly, 19 races in the UK today takes about ten minutes, then zone in on any likely opportunities and spend a bit more time, probably about 1-2 hours on a typical day, 5-10 minutes per target.

The quick answers are,

Age:           I'm not too concerned about this.

Weight:     Definitely something to check.

History:    Not very important to me except as a rough guide.

Jockey:    To be honest I very rarely look who's riding.

I guess these are pretty short answers and may not be very enlightening but there are so many factors within factors, each answer could be worth a blog, so I'll work through them in more detail one at a time.

1. FIELD SIZE.

I think the two most important considerations for me are weight carried and number of runners, with field size taking a slight edge. There's the excitement of cheering home your 16/1 shot in a 5 furlong dash of 20 runners but these can be few and far between, and I tend to go for smaller fields. This is to try and maintain a, hopefully, steady stream of winners rather than the dreaded downswing of prolonged dry spells. I've already invested £9.00 in three races this week that I shouldn't really have, in larger than usual races, but as I said at the start all selections will be backed to begin with. I look for, ideally, handicaps with fewer than ten runners as a starting point.

Anyone can feel free to ask any questions, I may give short answers immediately but go into more detail as I work my way through.

RUN GOOD. 👍

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GR1ZZL3R]

DAY 3 SELECTIONS 3.

[XY]

I think this is the most common guideline,for most of the guys,in CharismaMan competition,that is why I asked you to tell us more from your perspective. :Smile:

I get you,and can see your points.
Thanks for reply @GR1ZZL3R, and keep riding towards profitable finish! :Cash:

[GR1ZZL3R]

DAY 3 RESULTS.

Somehow this always seems to be the case, you have a good day and feel great, immediately followed by a downswing just to stop you getting too full of yourself.

0 winners, :teardrop:  9 losers, :waterfall:

Staked £19.00, Returned £00.00, Loss £19.00.

Winners 5  Losers 18  Staked £58.00  Loss £5.03.

I feel I may be overstretching a bit, too many selections not quite strong enough. It's too easy to think "Well, that might win" when in the back of your mind you know you really shouldn't back it.

I'll continue with all selections for the week and then revisit the selection procedure and work on any tightening up that needs doing.

Run Good.

 

[GR1ZZL3R]

DAY 4 SELECTIONS.

RUN GOOD. 👍

[GR1ZZL3R]

DAY 4 RESULTS.

Another blank day :teardrop: so quite a bit of time spent going over the results for the last few days. I've identified a couple of leaks, the main one being that a few of my picks have been in larger size fields, none of which have won. I've also picked a few that I've had doubts about, mainly I think because there's the scare factor of missing a winner. It could be similar to calling too many marginal hands from out of position because one of them might  just flop well, the horse might run well and might win. In the long run it's too many ifs, buts and maybes.

A considerable tightening up is called for, on today's first run through I picked 15 selections, far too many, so I've pruned them down to 6. I won't even look at the results of those I've dropped, it's like regretting folding 74o when the flop comes 653. It only leads to regretting what was a correct decision.

Total losses to date £15.03

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

 

[GR1ZZL3R]

DAY 5 SELECTIONS.

[GR1ZZL3R]

2 WEIGHT.

My favourite types of race are handicaps, each horse being allocated weights such that, in theory, they all have similar chances. The top rated horse would carry top weight and the others would follow, one rated 10lbs inferior would carry 10lbs less, so I tend to concentrate towards the top end of the handicap, there were 5 top weighted handicap winners yesterday. Of course it's never as simple as that, horses can sometimes improve faster than the handicapper can keep up with them, there can be allowances for age and sex and other conditions of race entry. Higher weighted horses may struggle in heavy conditions, imagine yourself running a cross country race over muddy fields in winter while carrying a sack of potatoes, but run well on good to firm going. Again, the shorter the race the less the weight should make a difference, carrying 10lbs more in a 5 furlong sprint shouldn't be as big a handicap as over a 3 mile steeplechase.

Taking weight off a horse won't necessarily make it run faster, but keep adding weight and eventually it will slow a horse down, I tend to go for horses nearer the top of the handicap, but allied with yet more factors.

Run Good. 👍

[GR1ZZL3R]

DAY 5 RESULTS.

A bit of relief from the blank days, two winners and a non runner from five.

Stakes £11:00,   Profit £6:88.  :Smile:

 

DAY 6 PICKS.

Run Good. :Thumbsup:

 

 

[GR1ZZL3R]

DAY 6 RESULTS.

Only one winner, a loss on the day of £3.62.

 

DAY 7 PICKS.

Run Good. :Thumbsup:

[GR1ZZL3R]

DAY 7 RESULTS.

Not very good, only one winner, a loss of £6.50, taking the week's losses to about £17.00. :teardrop: Time for yet another rethink. :wonder:

 

 

It might be a bit of a backward step and a continuing theme, but I'm starting again. Man didn't conquer Everest or reach the moon at the first attempt, there were many failures along the way, and this project is on a slightly smaller scale than those, so it's draw a line under the failures,back to the drawing board and go again. 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

 

 

 

[GR1ZZL3R]

 

Not much of a break but I did say at the start it was going to be a month's long trial, so commitment is now my main effort in everything. Having not posted any picks yesterday I got 3 winners out of 5, Sod's Law making an inevitable appearance. I'm torn between counting those in the overall stats or restarting as I missed them out, but on reflection it's a fresh start, mainly because I've been here two years now and showing a tendency not to follow through with some projects. This is the one that sets the bar. :Smile:

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[GR1ZZL3R]

 

My favourite race meeting of the year starts today at Cheltenham, there are super competitive races with a good case to be made for so many contenders, and such a wonderful setting. Is there a bigger thrill than cheering on your pick as it surges clear up that final demanding hill, or making a desperate late run to peg back the favourite? 

I haven't put any of those picks here, but I've had a pound on in each race in the super racing comp, and tried to do an each way acca. Wether I've fat fingers or not it turned out to be a £0.50 7 timer, about £38,000 if they all win. :Rofl: We can all dream, can't we? 

 

The excitement builds.

[GR1ZZL3R]

[GR1ZZL3R]

[psrquack]

I wish I could add more value to this awesome thread, but no skills on this. I know good outcome isn't a question for a brilliant mastermind, so I enjoy the rise of your bankroll silently. :cash: