SkilfulPoker Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 OK a couple of things first should anyone be mad enough to follow me in here... I can't remember the last time I won a sports bet, i think maybe i have lost about the last 9/10 bets placed...I have reverse engineered my analysis. Basically I looked for something at a decent price (i.e. an outside shot) that I felt had a reasonable chance of winning and then started checking out stats etc.Regardless I'll be placing this bet today wherever I can get the best price...Wenbo to beat Trump in the final of the English Open Snooker today. They are playing the first to 9 frames, and I think Wenbo has a reasonable chance here. Why is that?They have met 7 times before, and Wenbo holds the h2h record at 4:3.The most recent matches were:2016 World Championship - Wenbo lost 10:8.This was the world championship so a fair bit of pressure of course on both players, and especially Wenbo who has never won a ranking event. Wenbo was up 6-3 at one point. But Trump came back. I don't think Wenbo will be making the same mistake again, and think the recent defeat at the World Championship will be a powerful reminder to him to keep on Trump should he get in front.In 2015 Wenbo beat Trump 6-4 in the last 32 of the UK Championship. He was hungry for his first ranking title, but was later denied by Neil Robertson, who was in immaculate form knocking in a 147.The other matches they played were all in 2012 or prior.Trump beat Hawking 6:2 in the semi's, and Wenbo beat Bingham (last years world champion) after coming back from 4-2 down. Trump isn't going to be easy to beat (he beat O'sullivan 9-8 a week ago in Bucharest) but...I think Wenbo has a fair shout here, i've seen him at 3:1 somewhere, and he's 2.5:1 on Unibet ; i think that's a great bet, so will be backing him today. Good luck if you back either selection in this match, which should be a great match.It's going to be shown on Eurosport today with coverage starting at 1.45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcoV Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 Great analysis, 👍 👍Looking good so far :) Former community moderator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psrquack Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 It's 2-2 and after the first 4 frame I can't believe in Liang's win. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magicadil Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 I can see Wenbo winning this match. Both players are extremely Talented (Wenbo currently ranked #20, Trump #4 & Former #1) Wenbo is going to need Trump to make some errors though if he wants to prevail.The most likely outcome will be 9-6, or 9-7 in favor of Trump but I'm rooting for the Chinese 😃 I debateShould I smile like everything's good and pretend that life is greatOr should I let the world see the real me and not hide this painI tried to be like the rest of y'all, sorry I just can'tI'ma probably die this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkilfulPoker Posted October 17, 2016 Author Share Posted October 17, 2016 Thanks well played Wenbo! http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/snooker/37673232a well deserved first ranking title,nice to finally win a bet too :Dalso kudos to Trump "World number three Trump said: 'Liang was playing with freedom and his long potting was unbelievable. It's good to have another winner from China.' " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psrquack Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Congratulations to you prediction, it was really nice.👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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