Brocky

The first day of the rest of my life has arrived :inlove: :cash: Let's ❤️♥️❤️ go! Will def be streaming at some point today.

Nobody is offended but you're going to lose 38 times out of 100. That's not far from being a flip, so is it really as bad of a beat as you're making out?

I think the problem is people don't understand variance. I doubt even 0.01% of the poker playing population truly understand variance. I certainly don't understand it, but what I do understand is that people generally only remember the negative variance. I'm fairly sure 90% of poker players expect the best hand to hold 100% of the time which is ridiculous. Your AA is going to lose to 72 12.5% of the time, your KK is going to lose to AKs 33.6% of the time. That's more than 1 in 3 times. If you play enough hands, variance will even itself out to some extent. You will always people who run above EV and people who run below, the poker sites don't have any say on this, their RNG's don't sit there and look at how much a player deposits or how long they've been playing. If you go on Youtube you'll see 100+ videos of ridiculous beats in live poker but people only ever attribute bad beats to online because that's the narrative they want to believe. I hit a one outer on the turn at Unibet Open Dublin, did the dealer rig that for me?

Appreciate all of the messages, I'm currently crawled up in a ball on the sofa shivering with my head pounding. Hoping I'll be alright to grind on New Year's Day but will have to wait and see.

Cheers bro. The unibet rakeback structure can be very good but only if you're playing the highest stakes. At my level it's barely noticeable and I'm not really a fan. I also don't like the challenges, I can't check raise someone if they're never betting in position for example. I can't flat a king out of the big blind if they're not raising pre-flop. One discard per month is far too low. I tend not to even pay attention anymore, the pop ups really get on my nerves as well. If I were playing the 200s I would probably look but it's not worth the bother below the 100s I would say.

Thanks mate. I wanted to get into walking/the gym as part of the new year process and was debating which time of day I should go but your question has sparked a thought that maybe the perfect time to go is when the cards aren't falling my way. I'm sure some fresh air and an hour away from the computer can only be a good thing. If im honest i don't know how I'll deal with it apart from that. I've had many, many downswings over a 10 year period but they still hurt just as bad as the last. I think it's important to remember that this variance is why I have the opportunity to make a living from poker. If there were no variance, recreationals would never play.

Morning fellow sadists. I've decided to make a new thread as the first post in my old one isn't really reflective of where I'm at in poker at the moment. A very brief introduction, I'm 27, from the UK and I've recently quit my job to play poker full time. I primarily play the 25 euro heads up games on Unibet, with some higher stakes mixed in as and when. I'm lazy by nature but there comes a time in your life where you really need to step up and put the hard graft in. I think people who don't play large volume or even poker at all completely underestimate the mental toll that playing long hours, especially heads up where you're involved in every hand, can take on your mind/body. My girlfriend definitely doesn't understand but that's for another time 😏 In order to combat the high levels of procrastination I often have I've decided to start streaming in order to keep me focused on the task in-hand. I really enjoy interacting with others and hopefully can teach some of you heads up novices a couple of things about the game. Anyway, without further ado, here are my goals for 2019 (super ambitious): 3,000 heads up SNGs per month/36,000 for the year.8%+ ROI at the 25s+.Minimum of €72,000 profit as a result.Stream a minimum of 5 times per week.Have one person subscribe to my Twitch channel in 2019.Qualify for at least two live events.ZERO sports bets, casino game bets or high stakes poker tilts. These goals are going to be ridiculously hard to complete for multiple reasons. On the poker side, 100 games per day is a long day albeit achievable but those days where I can't play will really impact the volume meaning I'm obviously going to have to put in more than 100 most days just to stay on track. Then you have to balance in that this means more tables simultaneously and this will only have a negative impact on my ROI (pretty sure 8% is going to be tough to maintain). On the non-poker side, I'm a gambler, always have been and probably always will be. I hate to think of how much money I've wasted on bets but 2019 is the year to be super disciplined, put the measures in place so that it makes it harder to do something stupid and just remember that going back to work 9-5 is the last thing in the world I want! For reference, I played just 3,834 €25 HU games in 2018 with a 7.98% ROI. There will be daily updates and I will likely do a weekly recap of the goals to see how the progress is going. I am happy to answer any questions either here or on Twitch and I appreciate all of the support that the community offers, you really are a great bunch. My Twitch is www.twitch.tv/dianeabbottpoker (if you have Amazon prime I will gladly accept the free Twtich subscription you get with that :Wink: )

Good work on the Hexapro challenge, I think this shows that how you run in those few high multipliers is the difference between profit and loss in these things.

What level of research do you do for football betting? I've done lots of research before but it seems pointless most of the time. The problem is the bookies are rarely wrong; sometimes I'll look at a match, say Everton at home to an out-of-form West Ham and Everton will be evens or around there, which seems like a very big price, but more often than not they're pretty spot on with their pricing up of matches (yet I would lump on Everton because the price seems big to me). Another one I've noticed is I'll see home teams at short prices despite being much lower in the table than the away team which seems crazy but I think in certain countries such as Spain, Italy and Brazil teams struggle away from home more than say teams in the Premier League. For example, Athletic Bilbao who are 18th with 2 wins in 16 matches are 1.75 vs 12th placed Real Valladolid (who have the 7th best away record). X2 @ 2.1 would be my bet but that's why I play poker and don't sports bet :laugh:

I visited SA for the first time a couple of years back with caution as I'd heard quite a few bad things but I really couldn't fault it when I was there, I thought it was a stunning country. It was definitely eye opening though to see the shanty town as soon as you leave the airport in Cape Town so close to such a built up, wealthy area. Saying that, there's been quite a lot in the news recently about how there the racial tension is building again and there's a plan to allow the blacks to land grab from the whites? Sounds crazy and will likely only end up following Zimbabwe which is not going to end well. Sorry for going off topic! Good luck with the grind.

Interesting first post, which country do you live in? Was surprised to read the struggles you had withdrawing 100 euros.

Hey guys, I'm going to be streaming HUSNGs all morning/afternoon. https://www.twitch.tv/dianeabbottpoker

Hi mate, nice blog! I was moved to your direct right on the last level of day 1 in Dublin, nice result finishing 18th, it was definitely a tough slog. GL on the grind.

Edit: Not really sure which thread I'm posting in as the subject title keeps changing? For the streaming thread - Would anyone be interested in watching HUSNGs with a few Hexapros or too boring?

Good luck, am I reading it correctly that you will move down after losing 2 buy ins after moving up though? The swings in these can be crazy so there's really not much room for manoeuvre in your BRM.