Dennis_

I think what you are missing is that the way we get to a certain winrate doesn´t matter. Basically you are saying "A hyper turbo HUSNG player with a 3% ROI will face more variance than a reg speed HUSNG player with a 3% ROI." There are only two results. Win or lose. Everything that happens before the end of a HUSNG is irrelevant.

I don´t quite understand what you are saying. If we have an expected ROI of X it doesn´t matter how we got there. Whether we are playing hypers or deepstacks is irrelevant. And variance is simply how much we can differ from this within any given probability. Where do other factors like stacksizes hop in?

@CuteRaven I use primedope. Starting stacks and Blind levels don't influence the variance if you use your estimated ROI for the calculation. But then again they influence the possible ROI in the first place so you are not entirely wrong.

this is a simulation of both of my formats combined, assumind a true ROI of as little as 3% each. As can be seen, these results are almost the exact bottom end of the 95% confidence interval. What I am trying to say is that it is getting more and more likely that I am in fact not good enough for 25s rather than just getting unlucky.

25€ 5 Max ROI after 765 games: -1,7% 25€ HU ROI after 697 games: -1,7% I wish I had filmed today´s session. It started like any other session. Whatever I did I always found myself on the losing side. And then I lost pretty much every flip for the last half hour. It seemed unreal. If I ever get the exact opposite of this I will break many bankrolls but for now nothing ever seems to work.

@FreedoM I am overrolled for 25s so no intention to move down anytime soon or preferably at all. You are right that I haven´t put in sufficient volume yet. I just like to moan 😉

Granted I still won this hand but this is exactly the kind of first step towards bubbling that is constantly breaking my neck at the moment. If I am BU in this spot BB always holds

25€ 5 Max ROI after 731 games: -1,2% 25€ HU ROI after 656 games: 0,5% Individual places for 5 Max: 1st: 152 2nd: 152 3rd: 183 4th: 124 5th: 119 What can I say. Pretty much an exact copy of two days ago. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before.... Everything just works out in the exact opposite way of what I want it to be. For example: After getting a few folds a reg started to shove religiously over my limps. Rather than giving me a hand to trap with I kept getting dealt medium crap. Too strong to openfold but not strong enough to stack off. I just didn´t get to play any buttons at all. The worst part about all this is that the downswing started when I moved up to the 25s. I read an article once that said that it is unwise to blame variance for bad results right after moving up in stakes, as it is much more likely that you are not good enough. This is getting me thinking. I am 99% sure that I am getting unlucky at the moment, but just how unlucky I cannot say. What if my true ROI is in fact 1%? That would be horrible. Anyway, I made some simulations assuming a mere 4% ROI and it seems that my results would still be within reasonable variance:

There isn´t too much to tell. It was a really cloudy day. I quickly reached the altitude where heavy fog denied a proper view. I didn´t stumble into anyone until the peak itself, which was probably a good thing because it meant I could shout as loud as I wanted whenever I stepped in a muddy puddle (I did several times)...As was forcasted it started to rain half way down the mountain and it didn´t stop until - well, it still is raining at the time of writing. If you are interested in what my view was like I suggest you look up "Rhyd Ddu Path" and then imagine that I couldn´t see any of that due to the heavy fog

@GR1ZZL3R it´s a common theme in my games as well. You have a medium Ace on a dry board but suddenly the two other players go bezerk with their 4bets and 5bets and you make what is ought to be an easy fold, just go see an underpair and a baby Ace and you would have had 80% equity...

The decision has been made. Snowdon via Rhyd Ddu Path. I will try to remember to take some pictures

25€ 5 Max ROI after 689 games: -0,04% 25€ HU ROI after 629 games: 1,2% Pretty much a continuation of the last few days. I am not angry any more. I am raging. I can´t control myself anymore. I am shouting and throwing things through the flat. I haven´t broken anything yet or done really stupid things at the table, like going Allin with every hand, though. I am thinking about taking the day off tomorrow and visiting Snowdonia National Park instead. However, it is almost cartainly going to rain. I have countless rants again but I can´t be bothered to upload them at the moment.

25€ 5 Max ROI after 659 games: 0,7% 25€ HU ROI after 593 games: 1,1% Apparently I can´t beat these games for more than a miniscule winrate.

Bull❤️♥️❤️

Wish I ran that hot

25€ 5 Max ROI after 632 games: 2,7% 25€ HU ROI after 526 games: -0,05% I am starting to think that Unibet is trying to get rid of me. Slowly but surely the frustration is turning into anger. Everything I do is wrong. The regs pretty much read my soul. I couldn´t help but quit early again as I was 🆗this close to breaking something😠 Today´s rant will be only one hand, but I think it summarizes my current situation perfectly.

So you lose when you want to win and then, when you just want to bust everything to give yourself a break, you start winning?! :haha: Seems familiar to me

I barely lasted an hour today. I just can´t take it. Everything that can go wrong did go wrong. So far Unibet has been giving me 80% losing sessions, with the few winningsessions being so massive that it amounts to a total plus. This makes sense at 5 Max but how does that work in Headsup?! I very much abhor doing early quits especially on soft days like today but my play is much too emotion based for it to result in anything other than anger, loss and finally sadness I will keep the rant short: Giving me the hit only when it is entirely useless:Teardrop:

I am experiencing the same issues with being self employed as you do. I do not have a proper weekend at the moment and I don´t know how to fix it without losing tons of volume or end up playing at really inconvenient times

25€ 5 Max ROI after 604 games: 3% 25€ HU ROI after 484 games: 1,4% Pretty much the same as yesterday, albeit with slightly better results

25€ 5 Max ROI after 571 games: 2,9% 25€ HU ROI after 431 games: -0,1% I wasn´t actually intending to play Poker today as I was going to play a chess match in Colwyn Bay. However the guy who was supposed to pick me up didn´t show up. After passing the starting time for the game by half an hour and still not having heard anything I decided to play Poker. It was a slaughterfest once again. The Flips aren´t really flips at the moment. If I have the livecards against the pair the board always bricks off. If I have the pair against the livecards they will hit something by the river at the latest. Ax is an underdog against suited connectors while my KQs etc hands are practically dead against any ace. In the rare event of me having the better ace I chop at best. In the much more likely event of holding the worse ace the board either bricks off or we both hit. I do well in meaningless flips as or against cripplestacks but the closer we get to the bubble the worse I do. 3 Is my most common placement at the moment. The same can be said about lower limits, the difference is that I hardly took any 5th places there. I don´t think I played that bad, but Unibet hates me, there is no denial of that. And now a short demonstration how bubbleplay looks like at the moment:

So we are all going through a downswing then. You haven´t got a sample yet. I was at -10% for some time at the 10s so don´t worry

@GR1ZZL3R I have never had a downswing last more than one week on Unibet so far. And usually I have a session were I win three times as much as I lost in my worst session to "compensate" for it. The only thing we can do at the moment is sit it out.

25€ 5 Max ROI after 525 games: 4% 25€ HU ROI after 400 games: 0,9% Totally absurd. Wicked. Futile. Unibet hates me again. Prepare yourself for a rant. So first of all my opponents constantly hit their draws. Eventually I did hit my nutflush on an unpaired board. The only problem was it wasn´t good enoughI got the money in dominated so often. Especially with Ax against a higher Ax (which is mathematically impossible, but you know what I mean😉) Finally I did get it in dominating myself and then again I didn´t do well in preflop Allins either I ran about a dozen or so times into aces within 3 hours. This is one of those encounters: and a few hands later: Writing this I realize that I made a few mistakes but do I really deserve this? I planned to sit it through today and make it a 5 hour grind but after 3 hours the batteries of my 4£ mouse from HomeBargains died. Changing them is a nightmare and it can´t be done while multitabling. So I was forced to finish the session using the touchpad, which is a nightmare as well. I wasn´t fast enough and got timed out on a boat on one table. Tomorrow will be a day off.

25€ 5 Max ROI after 488 games: 5,1% 25€ HU ROI after 355 games: 3,8% Early quit because of tilt. I kept getting coolered but delivering bad beats in response. I can´t cope with that. It makes me feel like a complete fool. My EV line for today must be several hundred Euros minus. The traffic was laughably flat today. Never more than two 5 Max tables and in between there were no games for a full hour. I played three 50€ HUSNGs and lost all three of them. My opponents always took the line I wanted to see the least and always had it when I looked them down. Once I prepared myself to bluffraise the river with the nutflush blocker when Villain just potted the River, thereby committing himself to the pot. Great. Shortly after, the beats stopped while the coolers continued. That´s when I left.