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Brocky

Group: Three Of A Kind
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Posts posted by Brocky


  1. @Eeezee wrote:


    @Brocky wrote:

    The first part of your original post started well as it is true that an alogithm cannot be truly random, however, the rest of your post was just complete nonsense.  Many people have run up large wins from small amounts in roulette, it's not uncommon.  Either you're a genius that can predict the RNG in which case you're an idiot for not exploiting that on every casino you can for hundreds of thousands of pounds or you had a lucky streak, followed by an unlucky one in which you lost most of it back.  I know which one my money is on.

    I would love to hear how you beat the algorithm because any time I've been into a bookies and someone starts talking about their theories on the FOBT machines they come across as completely deluded.


    The reason is simple, my wins were based on variable strings of numbers that I figured out the algorithm would favour if I bet in a certain way at certain times. 

    It was a winning streak of sorts, not the kind where I got lucky and picked a few random numbers to press but the kind where, for a short while I was able to latch on to entire strings of numbers that I knew would appear with a short amount of spins. 

     

     


    A lot of words with nothing tangible.  I'd like to see one piece of evidence that proves it can be predicted it any way.

    • Like 1
  2. The first part of your original post started well as it is true that an alogithm cannot be truly random, however, the rest of your post was just complete nonsense.  Many people have run up large wins from small amounts in roulette, it's not uncommon.  Either you're a genius that can predict the RNG in which case you're an idiot for not exploiting that on every casino you can for hundreds of thousands of pounds or you had a lucky streak, followed by an unlucky one in which you lost most of it back.  I know which one my money is on.

    I would love to hear how you beat the algorithm because any time I've been into a bookies and someone starts talking about their theories on the FOBT machines they come across as completely deluded.

    • Like 1
  3. It's not a gamble though, poker is about playing ranges vs ranges.  The 3 bettor's range is stronger and uncapped, therefore he will win more long term by being aggressive here whereas the button struggles to represent any strength.  

    There's also a difference between barrelling a card that increased your equity massively and just calling to hit a gutshot, the latter being a likely complaint in the 'rigged' thread.  If the turn is the Tc then the BB may not barrel.  These players don't play at the highest of stakes because they're bad, they will know more about theory, board textures and ranges than you or I ever will.  The question you should ask yourself is not "Why are these players gambling it up so much?" but "Why are they doing what they are and what can I learn from this?"

     

    • Like 2
  4. I'm only a mid-stakes grinder, these guys are high stakes crushers so the following is only my opinion.

    50bb effective stacks, opening KJo seems completely standard, as does 3 betting 53s.  At this stack depth you want to be balancing your 3b range because having purely monsters, especially at this buyin level, will be exploited for fun.  A 3b NAI range here will (or should imo) look something like 88+, A9+, KJs+, with some suited connecting hands at medium frequency and suited non-connecting hands (J4s, Q3s) at a lower frequency.  The flop is much better for the 3 bettor than the button as he is uncapped here with the button likely 4 bet shoving AJ-AK/99+ and given the texture, where the button is often going to miss, a ~22% PSB as a c-bet is more than sufficient.  The issue for the bb is that the button will know all of this and the smaller sizing makes it easier to float with some hands that have showdown value, such as Kx or some hands with decent backdoor equity, such as 97hh, JTss etc.  

    The turn card is perfect from the BBs perspective.  If you're going to 3b 53ss pre and c-bet the AA8r then the 2s/4s are the cards you're praying for.  It gives him great equity to barrel and any decent HU player will size up here with almost all of their range in order to 1) Get stacks in by the river should he be at the top of his range and 2) To give off the impression he's doing #1 when he's not at the top of his range.  When the BB barrels 80% pot on the turn, this is where the button effectively decides to call down with K high.  Ax, while not impossible, isn't massively likely given the two aces on the board and the question then posed is does the BB barrel this large with 99-KK?  If not, then the BB is polarised to completely nutted Ax+ hands where the button is drawing dead along with some hands with good equity (spades/54/53/43) as well as some completely pure bluffs (QT).  I can't speak for the BB as I don't know him but I would imagine in that spot, I'd likely only look for 2 streets of value with 99-KK, meaning I would bet the turn with the more vulnerable pairs (TT/JJ) and probably check turn with QQ/KK, opting for value on the river instead.  Back to the original point though, if the button believes the BB is capable of being light here, which the streamer mentions himself that he is, then the call with KJ is almost no different to calling with K8, for the button's nut two-pair.  He's either pretty much drawing dead or ahead.  

    Complete brick river.  At this point it's no longer "sarcifice chips over nothing" as you talk about, you're risking what you have left because if you check your 5 high then you have 0 chance of winning the 65m chip pot.  If you're going to take a high variance line and 3b/bet/bet with 53ss here, then shoving the river is completely standard.  If this happens in a $1 MTT then likely nobody talks about it but ultimately whatever the BI, the logic behind the hand should be the same.  Similarly with the KJ, if you're going to call that turn card, then this river is one of the best in the deck to call down with.  It would probably be worse to fold river than call if you're going to call turn given the board run out.  It's a very sick call given what's at stake but you're just looking at the hands individually with no understanding of why either of them are doing what they're doing.  Each street should be looked at individually and assessed at current pot odds, not just looked at as sacrificing X chips with 5 high.  He's betting the turn because there's 26m of dead money and he's betting the river because there's 65m of dead money.  There is a lot of incentive to continue the bluff here.  For the BB, it doesn't matter whether he has quads or 6 high; if you're making the correct call to double up then it's not a gamble.

    • Like 3

  5. @JoeBloggs wrote:

    Hey Brocky,

    Thanks man GL to you too, I used to read your blog on here and you were playing on a recognisable alias I think so I remember playing against you. Are you back to playing heads-up now or still on the 6 max grind? I am from the UK yes. 


    I'm doing both, hit a really big downswing in both HU and 6m so decided to get staked for both separately (although 6m not finalised yet).  I'll likely be casually putting in 1-1.5k games per month HU at the 25-100s while attempting to make 6m my main game.  We'll see :P 

    I looked back at our game from yesterday, looks like I got revenge today ;) 

    image.png.688bba4e77917ff6a2d41c8442642c07.png

    I knew you were strong in our final hand as well (you had AA vs my FD/SD) but I couldn't really fold.

  6. Why does everything have to be against you? It's annoying about the timezone but it's a minor annoyance at best. Move on and remember for next month that it actually starts at 1am instead. Freerolls, challenges, promotions are all exactly that, promotions. They're not here for you to win millions on a slot because you rake €5 every month, they're here to promote different game types through the missions and incorporate newer, less experienced players into different game types.

     

    I had an email from a different casino the other day with 10 free spins of which I won 60p or something. Should I go and complain to them that their free bonus to me isn't good enough? In their right mind they would close my account and tell me I can take my business with me.

    • Like 3

  7. @EugenicistGates wrote:

    ain't that the truth, very secretive, they seem to all be omaha players as well, as the prizes and challenges for Omaha, the rewards are a lot higher, and all welcome f for reerolls reward in Omaha as well. I looked at it last night, 4 players playing Omaha haha..

    Shame, as the Poker product overall is excellent, but when the elite secret few are playing expensive freerolls, I am playing ticket for ticket for ticket. These things are what they are,. You'd think after I chucked you all a winner with our first selection Dawn passage they'd let me in, but no, my face still does not seem to fit.. Very disappointing..


     

    [ ] Understands what 3rd party means.

    • Like 2
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