WuDu

Rather boring game, I think we're having some problems this year, regardless of injuries. Congrats on your NTS bets, Götze and Aubameyang each had 1 semi-dangerous goal scoring opportunity, nothing more. In hindsight, the bet on Schalke had some value, however let's be honest, both teams weren't that dangerous today.

Bürki Passlack-Ginter-Sokratis-Piszczek Weigl Dembele-Götze-Kagawa-Pulisic Aubameyang starting for Dortmund. Castro is injured.

I'll be watching as well. Dortmund-Bayern, Dortmund-Schalke, those are great games. Did you place a bet on Schalke?

Now this one made me 🤣

To be fair, the BVB was missing half its starters and Berlin is a team on the rise, especially with Dardai as head coach.

Great game from the BVB, game could have ended 7-4 as well instead of 5-1, so your hunch was correct. Still, to me the odds were way too low, Gladbach in Freiburg 2 weeks ago and Hoffenheim in Darmstadt today had similar odds movements for road favorites and those games didn't end so well for the favs... Dortmund now with 17 goals in the last 3 games, Guerreiro seems like the real deal...

But have you ever tested your personal value estimations over a longer period of time? That could be a nice project for you, set up an Excel spreadsheet, put your estimations in before gameday, put the real results in afterwards and after 1 or 2 full seasons you can run a nice correlation analysis and see whether or not your knowledge of the Bundesliga is superior to the bookies. How do you know that your assessment of 55 % for a BVB victory is correct? What if it's really just 52 % or 51.3 %, can you tell? What I want to say is that I doubt that you're able to profit with margins as low as that: 55 % means you need odds of 1,82 to break even however you would place a bet at just 1.90. That's just 0,08 points in your favor, that's not really value for you, as too much can happen to hurt your personal ROI in the long run... I don't have numbers on over/unders in general, too time consuming for me to compute and I doubt it's even worth it. I mean every team has the goal to win a game (except in China's Super League or in Italy's Serie B of course 🆒) but no coach goes into a match and says "I don't care about the result as long as we score 2 goals ourselves". Yes, Schalke is emotional and thus it lacks stability. Heidel is a great manager and Weinzierl is a great coach, however I'll give you two more losses until the first supporters on Transfermarkt will start to campaign for Huub Stevens...

Dortmund now down to 1.75. From 09-15 there have been 123 cases of a road favorite starting with 2.00 or lower and dropping odds in the Bundesliga. Home team won 22%, Away team won 58 %, 20 % of those games ended in a draw. Betting on every road favorite would have given you -10 % ROI, betting on every home underdog would have given you +28 % ROI. The BVB played great and rested half of the team against Darmstadt, but Darmstadt shouldn't even play in the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg won in Augsburg and drew twice against Hoffenheim and Köln while keeping a clean sheet. I think the BVB will win, but there's absolutely no value there. Don't forget, in their only away game this season against Rote Brause Leipzig, Dortmund looked really bad. Speaking of no goals, what's up with S04 this year? 3 games, 3 losses, 0 goals scored. Next game against red hot Köln...

Yeah, I have a lot more stats on other leagues as well, however every league is different and unique, it simply doesn't make sense to mix different leagues like LaLiga, Serie A and Bundesliga together. Different styles, different climates, different public that is placing bets and so on. Your 2 goal argument is correct, but it also works in the other direction as well. My point was simply to give you some added information about the Bundesliga. Let's see how that plays out... I think we can agree that the typical "extreme" football fan from the Ruhrgebiet is not someone you want your daughter to marry. 😀 Who's Schalke playing this year in the Europa League? Nothing like watching your favorite team play Vladivostok or Dynamo Minsk on Thursdays...:happy:

Nice discussion we are having here, let me answer according to those 3 different points you made. Point 1: That's correct, high odds and small sample size doesn't correlate with future success/failure, however that's the nature of the beast with only 306 games per season. But personally, I would feel much more confident if there had been a steady history of underdog wins in the Bundesliga. Point 2: You're closer to the betting business than I am, but this rather proves my point: If odds compiling has changed since 09 (for the better of the bookie), winning those high odds games should be much tougher for you in 2016. Point 3: Of course the bookmakers know what they're doing, otherwise they won't be in business for long, however giving my own statistical analysis, bookmakers are far from being perfect. Betting on the favorite in this case in the Bundesliga hasn't been really profitable as well (something like 2% ROI). The conclusions I have drawn, is (1) to not bet on the Bundesliga 😏 and (2) only bet when the odds are reasonable (between 2,00 and 4,00 give and take a little). Betting on really low odds favourites cannot be profitable long term and betting on high odds underdogs kills you with its variance. Ps: Stubbe is that you?

Re: Betting on Hamburg I analyzed the betting stats from the Bundesliga from 09/10 until 14/15. In the 5 seasons from 10/11 until 14/15 there have been 24 games where the road underdog had starting odds between 8 and 12 and the odds were reduced by at least -1,00. The underdog in question won 2 times, the game resulted in a draw 4 times and the home favorite won 18 times. Needless to say, it resulted in a huge negative ROI for the road dog. 7 years ago in 2009/10 the road dog won 3 times in such a situation. From 09/10 until 14/15 there have been 45 games where the road dog had starting odds between 8 and 12 and the odds increased between 0,25 and 2,00. The road dog won 3 times, they drew 7 times and the home favorite won 35 times, resulting in a negative ROI of -35% for the away team. I'm not knocking down your bet, I just want to advice you that stats are not really on your side in this case...

 Absolutely agree, however to set the record straight, I wasn't the one starting the political discussion here... To move back to the topic of this thread, another funny name that has been taken in every shape or form is the old white bearded cowboy with "BluffaloBill".

#Pray4Magicadil Takes political advice from a poker player who makes a living shilling for Pokerstars, a site that does not put players' interest first and only cares about its profit, while being on a Unibet forum. Liberal logic... Speaking of betting odds, the Brexit had way higher odds than Trump winning, guess how that played out? I wish the Unibet betting department were as generous as the Unibet Poker guys, because the odds here were 2.66 the last time I checked, while the competition has him at 3.4 and 3.6. Maybe you and your fellow gender studies/sociology/liberal arts majors should put some money on Hillary here on Unibet, because I would really like to place a bet on Trump before the first debate.

I hope on the morning of November 9th, Unibet offers Magicadil a nice playthrough bonus once Trump wiped the floor with Hillary. A lot of those SJWs are going to be on suicide watch then and need hope wherever they can get it... Speaking of clever aliases: Mine was even reported here in the forums

I don't have a horse in this race, but you open a topic and report someone for "usillybich"? You gotta be kidding me...Next step: "Thought police".