Estzen

I understand that for you its funny, but to me its just childish 😄 ! 🙂  good that you can laught alone. 

I ll just respond with this: 

and This:

 Have a happy punting with slots. 

Quick update, not much - zero normal cashes from Anniversary events. 9 bountis in total it seems. The 1st one was very good and promising, but KQ seems to have the better odds against us today. 2 games, it was always AK vs KQ where KQ had the better of me - so all the Merenitsu outs where apparently working there. 😄 Tomorrow will have the screens 😉 

54 minutes ago, GR1ZZL3R said:

If there's one thing I've learned from these hundreds of posts on one particular hand in one particular spot is that poker is extremely complicated. No wonder I'm so bad at it. 🤣

I wouldn't have shoved by the way. My shoving range in that situation is AA+ 🤣🤣🤣

You can always get better, remember that 😉 

4 minutes ago, Andy-Unibet said:

I don't think it's safe to say it's -EV at all tbh. If villain is over-limping with bad hands then you're going to be fine jamming wide because you're going to get folds a lot more than the times they call. There is also the ICM pressure of having them covered, they have to call tighter if they're aware of it.

I was referring to this, where call is completing in the SB after BTN folds, not calling a BB shove after completing.

 

In your last sims you have SB locked at completing with 76% of their range? Is this based on the idea that the player will complete their entire range and never jam? That doesn't seem realistic to me as I'd imagine population shoves pairs, Ax and broadway combos at some frequency from the SB and these combos would be removed from the completing range. 

 

If we use this as an example of a player that basically just shoves their good hands and completes with speculative hands (with a small % trap with monsters), the BB response is to jam everything because with the exception of the small % time there is a monster under the bed, the SB can't call the hands in green on the bubble because hero now has all the purple hands in their range and dominate it.

You're also locking the SBs response to the jam but that's based on the massive limp range to start and that they're going to call it off with a big % of that range as well, both of which seems strange. If a player is going to limp/call a jam, would they not just jam in the first place? (with the exception of slow played monsters x% of the time).

Again, I've not played €1 SNGs in a long time and can't calculate the Unibet effect of the quality of the player pool but limp/jamming J6s or T7o doesn't sound like population on the bubble.

 

I fast read this just while Im doing other stuff so cant really make a big notion here atm. 

AT $1s people are very unware of ICM. They dont take anything much into account. Like I said, SB in most of peoples minds is "a big blind which is a bit diffrent"... Seeing Ax jams, not really. In you think much more what people do in 5 dollar MTTs, but they dont. People call-off wide enought that the marginal spots are not to be taken in my opinion. And they call off, without properly thinking what their doing they just react and do. 

Just a train of though here: People have no idea what their doing in 5s at MTTs and we are talking about $1 SNGs where suddenly people know what their doing 😄 ... even in 10s MTTs people just click buttons, if we suddenly think their taking all this decision making into account I dont know where were are living xD anyway, GG I think cuteraven was able to learn alot from our bantering.

I ll add a cool conclusion to here: 

So when the guy is overly tight - calling of only like 14% nit range: !!!

You can jam everything:

But if he is a non balaced impulsive caller who goes something like 43% calling you get this:

Andy. 

I think its pretty safe to say that its -Ev in any sense, or if it is +EV, its becomes very marginal, so its better excluded from the range and just check-it and play post. The CL can bet almost any checked board anyway, because the SB cannot really go much because of the 3rd 10bb stack. By just going min-bet everything would already be enought, probably 

You point out a very valid thing, it all comes down to what the SB is doing. I would say anything from 1s to 10eur games, people are much more passive on SB than they should. Probably the only valid players really in the scene are people who play 25s in these 5max ones as a reg. 

In $1 ones the understudiedness skyrockets the most. I think a good one would be to just look two kinds of scenarios. One with SB with very wide range calling off. and One with a tighter range call off. (We exclude jams because, in that scenario the SB was not jamming) We are dealing with a situation where, a (perceieved tight-passive) limps. Since usually in supermicros, the SB is almost like BB in their heads, so they have no understanding of the diffrences.

The 37% wasnt their limping range, the 37% was their call-off range. 

There are players who make it almost 90%+ and then there are super-nits who play like AT+ pairs "waiting their hands" thinking its "something they should do". 

I doubt that J3 is every making money there, but thats just my opinion. If someone wants, he can start doing it all days and look what hes sample size would do 🤣.. I guess . 

@SCOBYLosing with AA is much higher in Omaha, its a drawing game, and if this is something that really upsets, then there you need a switch there. There's a line in this video about Omaha which would maybe help that line of thought. Have a blast. 

There 

Anniversary results 21-23

So, the 21 was crazy - wasnt a happy day, but hey - we have to take both sides of the results:

The 6k was really poor, but I forgot to change alias so I wont go to that one. 

4k Anniversary 22th June:

With PKOs, there ranges get really crazy at times and due to that we also have a pretty high varience lines. Emotionally sure feels shit to have to hit the rebuy(thankfully people are rebuyng enough so that the usually theres still enough people to make it okay to rebuy, but most of the time - we actually SHOULDNT REBUY in PKOs. Thankfully, the fields have remained relatively the same as the start for a long time in these Anniversary ones. However, I pushed that day probably a bit over and made at least 2 invalid rebuys when it comes to optimal theory.. 2 is probably an understatement too.. runs sucked and what can you do 😄 . 

So just like the Quick update said: I think I got like 1 bounty in full that day 😄 - and at the same time, I was like leaderboard 3rd or smth lol. 

22. June

This day I was in another town and on the day before, I wasnt really sure if Im really gonna play the whole games in a tablet while listening a live event and stayng with my 2 friends whom also grabed 1 from their town, so its 4 of us. I played these games all at the tablet at same time and ended later when we were at the old towns restaurant and just chatting about psychology and philosophy. Shes a psychology-grad and totally was a great night of valueble discussion and multi-tablling, was able to FT two of these, but not 1st places. 

Game 1, Anniversary 6k

Game 2. Anniversary 4k

I dont remember what was the hand so I just out of curiosity check it out: 

So this one and he had JJ. so just UL there. The fact that he can open superwide against me really makes its a really good to go, but not this time. 

2K Anniversary:

With that day, remained 4th in the Leaderboard, but its not really that a thing since 1st place doesnt get anything better. Its just a matter of 25. For me, the Leaderboard is just an added benefit, everything will work out already because if PKOs have been studied, you do understand the range diffrences in the situations and some -EV calls that are pure -EV calls in any normal game, will be +EV must calls in these games from time to time. It will skyrocket the varience, but it makes money and its the correct way of playng these, in the long run, PKOs make more money than Normals so in that terms its even better that Anniversary has picked PKO as a pure format. 

The hard part is that sometimes, the range can be over-widened where its actually not so good in the long-run and probably -EV , while in a certain tables, its not so bad from time to time. Anyway PKOs are fun and PKOs are crazy games. The fact that most of the people play them like normals, is just a pure added benfit for us. 

23th June, another not as bad as the 21st was, but not a happy day. But I didnt cry xD

Game 1, Anniversary 6k:

That went probably like 3 rebuys? I dont remember exactly right now , wasnt a good one tho. 

Game 2 Anniversary 4k:

I think it was here that I had INSANE hand with AQs against 2 bounties with 2 shorties against a guy who covers me and called it off with A3- since he covers it kinda a bit licence him to do it here I guess, but im not entirely sure... my range sure could be pretty wide with that iso her so thats probably why he called it off there too. In a normal this would be pure insane. Since I had AQs it could be said that just raising would be a thing too, but jamming is never bad so and im percieved so wide and since im covered jam makes sense even more. could go both ways tho.

And 4flush came my reaction at time was that I burst laughting so hard that it was hard to hold myself for some time.. 

just no diamond please lol 😄 

Game 3: Anniversary 2k: 

I have no recollection what happened here, but I assume some jam by default that made it:

Lets checki it out: 

There we go - so I ended up sleeping too long today... its past midday now a lot, I have drank my 2 coffees and elaborated this thing here a bit. ... I ll head out to eating and then will study sess for some time and then we play some Anniversaries again 😄 . Leaderboard 7th still. Since for the trip I took like 200 out, so if I count that back (I have played some other games too ofc, but I post Festival events to this board, otherwise I would have to post everyday and it would be crazy. Im down few hundred in total I guess. If Anniversary alone counted, Im probably also down a some. 25s are great games tho, I really like it all . I min cashed Mercury Blue yesterday too, but its not relevant to this blog, even tho I played with same alias. I welcome all the talkers to play every event and smash those tables. Have a good grind fellow community! Love to you all!

Before starting to write my 3 days of results I ll take a little cake to talk about Phil Hellmuth and what I think about him. 

Just like Livertool said, gotta respect the results - in terms of results I think sure he is really good, BUT he for sure is not as good as he thinks about himself. And the point of Narcissim by Negreanu and many others, I think is a valid one. And not just trait lines, but here its probably a real personality disorder. If anyone wants to get a glimpse, what real(and not some PR article talks about NPD) I would recommend Dr. Todd Grande's channel on Youtube.(check-it out) Its a very valid channel interms of Clinical Psychology with a good depth. In terms of NPD, what really stands out, is that people like that are not just arrogant, but it really doesnt make sense to them - why people wouldnt like them. And the grandiosity of thought in their internal speech, is a skyhigh one... super-unrealistic. 

So when someone with NPD gets high archievements which from time time is still possible of course, the real downside is that it validates their own delusion for themselves even more. 

And that really is a big part of PH. Hes a lucky guy, that is wife is a psychologist, cuz it would be really hard to live with one in a long-marrige, because Personality Disorders are not something that would change, if someone really wants he can adjust with awareness - somewhat, but their certainly never gonna turn these around. Borderline Personality Disorder cases are a good example, how painful Persoanlity D-s really get... and if someone would deny their diagnose, its even more. 

In terms of PH and Poker, Im pretty much thinking pretty much the same as Negranu is thinking about it. PH is a good player, but he certainly isnt the current BEST ONE. He is not beating the 10k and the nosebleeds, he is not in ther high up kicking everyones butt... hes just a ego-trip guy with his good game-selections where he is winning <- but he is still a valid high stakes player. But is he even a top 50? Probably no. 

So what to think about his HU matches? Well, for sure he understands how SNG type works, but he overweights his small results. Its like a player who wins against you lets say 40% he can win against you and you win 60% ... and a guy wins 4 games in a row,.... then he says that "See I kicked you and showed how shit you really are" ; While in reality... if you'd play hundereds of games.... in the real world of things, he can never be +EV against you . And his few games cloud his thoughts that back on his back. 

At the same time, I guess just like Esfandiari - there are sure people undervalue PH at times, but in the longrun their mostly right I think - but sure its a much more balanced situation than black-n-white. 

If PH would play Dnegs just like Dnegs played Polk... I think PH would cry, but the thing is hes never gonna do it. 😄 

As a conclusion: PH is a valid high-stakes player with the greatest results of WSOP titles and so on. Which have gotten also from when player fields were SMALLER. He is for sure A HALL OF FAME player "forever" . But he should and probably is unaware how much work he should add to his resume, to have that "Im the best right now" floor "RIGHT NOW". 

Thats kinda how I see that topic. 

Im not sure why I dont have the Qox portion and other ones, its a bit screwed, but doesnt really matter, because it just makes the limping range a bit stronger. 

And like him limping QQ isnt a mistake. 

So I excluded EVERY Ax even the suited ones, and left out all PPs from 22 to 77s. Its still not a jam in any sense for BB. 

SB: adjusted with Excluding Ax complitely. 

And im not really surprised - because its a stone bubble. And like ... going all in with very wide range , you can - if you cover a lot of stack. The middle stack can be abused a lot ... but they more "equal" it is, the freaking tighter everyone needs to be. And if there are imbalances then usually, the 2nd stack needs to be tighter because he is basically winning vs the smaller stack and can outrun him. If the 3rd stack would be very small, the CL probably can go crazy, and 2nd stack needs to really nit it up and have a patrience run ... 

10 hours ago, CuteRaven said:

@EstzenI think the main difference between your sim and the one by Andy is that ICMizer assumes that SB is only capable of limping hands, which means that a lot of the relatively good hands that could be jams are included in the ICMizer limping range. Overall, this means that ICMizer gives SB a much stronger limping range than HRC, which makes jamming a lot worse for BB in the case of your ICMizer calculation. Also turning on FGS on ICMizer would probably have some effect on the ranges.

And looking at the SB calling off range that you readjusted: I don't think this villain (or most players) would limp call stuff like T7s, even at these stakes 😆.

I'm not trying to say that jamming J3o is particularly good, but your sim has some flaws IMO.

 

Well, in $1 we can make the range even wider - so I would say that they for sure would call at some of the time T7s. Occasionally can be seen almost anything. $1 is really the ground zero of everything... Of course , the SB limping range point is a valid one, but we are also not seeing much of the excluding them from limping, and interms of monsters and specially the suited portion of those, are actually very valid to slowplay in shortstacks. So If I open ICMizer again, I could disinclude Axo and smaller pairs portion, but we it still wouldnt make J3o a jam Im pretty sure... 

So Icmizing this  a bit, is pretty confusing 😄 

Maybe the ante sizing is wrong, I dont play SNGs regulary, and I dont remember what is the exact structure, but here are some ICMizings - and maybe the ante value is wrong - but IF there would be no ante then ranges would be just tighter.

So ... First of all the Equilibrium is very weird here- but maybe I didnt something wrong:

In anysense, jamming J3o seems super-punty. And if its not punty vs nash, then its very punty vs someone calling like 43%  

All numbers are in DollarEV. 

BB jam:

SB calls off with:

But now: I adjusted SBs calling off into something like this:

Then Our BB jamming range should be this:

4 minutes ago, Andy-Unibet said:

They're ICM sims, not chipEV ones. The $EV for J3o is shown in the first screenshot.

This is how HRC thinks SB should play it's range given the option of completing or shoving, what do you think needs adjusting and then I can re-run it. I have no idea if population €1 players are over-shoving, over folding, over completing or any combination so am just using the baseline of nash. Maybe the entire range is too wide?

I ll check the stuff out after my games, its intresting enought 😄 

Very cool blog - more power to you man! Seems that your on a right track 😉 

So like, I asked before - Im well aware, that it runs many iterations, thats like basic. The bigger question is assinged ranges and Im still not convinced over it being $EV+ ... because chipEV and $EV are really two diffrent things. Many stuff can be chipEV where their not $EV.. 

5 hours ago, Andy-Unibet said:

Ran it in HRC and it 100% calls J3o vs limp but jamming is also profitable. 

SB limp range is 77-AA, offsuit non broadway and not really connected Kx, Qx, Jx, Tx and lower junk and some junk suited like 92 and 82.

Thats pretty hard to believe. If its profitable, I'd assume its very marginal, so now knowing we are 3 handed with pretty even stacks, I would think thats it pretty bad choice to do. My yearly ICMizer just ended this month, I could check it out at some point just out of intrest, but how much $EV is it even making? Seems really bad. 

In terms of Equilibrium, how much is the assumed range adjusted cuz people certainly wont be calling nash there also. 

@CuteRavenThanks for the output . So in terms of ICM, its pretty hard to say if something is correct or not without knowing all the other stacksizes, because thats whats it all about. One of the most important things in these situations is if and whom you cover with your stack. If its a HU hand with jamming J3 vs a SB limp, then there probably are better spots, but then again, if someone overfolds and is very tight, its not so bad if you are very shallow, cuz the guy over-folds anyway and almost everything starts to become +EV if he does so. Its not a combo we really would like to jam tho . At those HU matches(SNG 5-men with 2 ITM) since both are playng basically for the 1st place then there is not really much of an ICM to talk about. There would be more ICM to talk about if it would be 3 players ITM. Probably the biggest question in these SNG5s is how we need to be playng in the 3player bubble situations - because thats where biggest mistakes are made. 

59 minutes ago, Livertool said:

🤣

Dr Phil on fire again 👍

How is that necessary right now? Get better results than I do, and then talk. 

7 minutes ago, GR1ZZL3R said:

You can't blame anything but yourself for not focussing properly yet you will probably do it again today. 🙄

If you think some other action is affecting your results then stop it.....................NOW!!!😠

Well , It might and it may not, as Ive been doing this for long time, so it really can be too fold, yesterday was just too distraced. I didnt also get as good of a sleep than I did today. Im self-aware enough that, I for sure made some horrible lines. Playng 1 table is easy. But when the 2nd game starts and Im multitabling via tab. Then its a bit harder. Can go either way 😄 

Quick update:

Im on a bus right now, heading to an non-poker event. So I will make a longer screenshots included post later.

Yesterday, with some other stuff combined, lost like €200, thats not the the worst in terms of my daily swings its actually very common. But I was watching Youtube on the side yesterday and that also wasnt the best-of-best ideas, as I ended up making some stupid jams, which I didnt like later on. However, in terms of bluffs, I really just got into bluffing into the nuts very many times, specially when one had A8s and I had some Kox that I had defended with a spade and was jamming into. SO games went very unfortunate, and not only that - I also made some very bad decisions later on. So 0 cashes and some rebuys. 😄 I remember - 1 bounty was probably which I managed to get IN TOTAL ---- LOL . I basically closed everything later and just went to sleep. Im not sure the quality I can get today, as I would be playng Anniversary during a lecture ... Its not totally locked in my head yet, to do it like that or not, but - I ll probably end up doing so.... whatever. In terms of yesterday really cant blame much of anything but myself for not focusing properly and even if some setups ended up really bad luck it was not just that. 

20.06.2020 Anniversary day

Yesterday was very nice gaming day. This series seems to be very good, I was also doing pretty well, but ended up down something like 100 or due to some rebuys. Also put Neptune up, but wasnt able to make it this time. 

6K Deep Anniversary event:

Ended up 43th when I had pretty short in the end, and I had pretty good bounty so I was very happy to jam my KK, but ended up AA. 

So yeah, nothing we can do here 😕 

4K Anniversary event: 

This one I actually thought that I had more bounties at first, but no compared to yesterdays this one didnt go as well. 

This one was going on pretty good, until I just had to get KO'd in a spot against Maarcelus and ended up 75th with 5.88 lol. 

Pretty normal squeeze spot, but not loving it so much. Ended up having vs JJ spiking an Ace and running it down to a J On the River with a good vomit xD. 

Now, 2k Anniversary Deep Hyper:

If they wouldnt be as volatile, these are gold, because really people suck at shortstack. Its just crazy the mistakes that are made in these, and specially if more aware of PKO. Ended up having at least 2 crazy multiway allins which I won both, so with PKOs and those Hypers, the volatility just skirockets, but if you run good you make it crazy hits. 

Was nice to get FT, but my added value was so high that there almost with 0 fold equity anyway 😄 

I think with 2 stacks covering in FT there, I feel that A3s ICM wise is a bit loose of an open there, but maybe if people passive and not gonna take advantage of that its fine - not sure - I had huge goods-on my head so certainly reasonable in the 1v1 sense its almost anytwo in vacum lol. But the problem is, if pot lost, hes gonna lose the covering stack size pretty much, so a risky spot abit. But ended up well for him with my €66 bounty.. 

Seeing the runout I was already "mkay so many outs to dodge, pretty much cooked here"

Even tho Neptune didnt go ITM this time, I saved one nice moment from the Four of a Kind:

At Neptune was 18th, with a pretty sliver 30BB jam call, which in theory is fold sometimes... but at that time im kinda insta clicked there, and since people are much tighter than theory suggest I just got doomed:

Auto-piloting isnt a good place always, with vs a tighter guy really a stupid call there in terms of exploits.. 

So yeah, that was my day . We will have a blast today too! Keeping it going to Anniversary. Pretty good place on Anniversary leaderboard too, so this €250 supermoon is coming for!

Cheers to everyone!

6 minutes ago, FreedoM said:

I saw that, but i thought maybe you can stack 10 tickets for example and use them in one Flip. 🤔

 "As if I would be a flip-reg then Freedom just solved how flips could be played proffessionally"😆🤣

Dude, you are doing great. You are on a track and just dont worry about all the shit thats going on! Keep those 500NL videos up and just get better. People dont have 4bet bluffs in these pretty sure, so can be pretty nutted. People are much more passive and nitty in these games, much more. But I better not comment cuz I have no idea if I even beat 25NL myself so I better shut up . I occasionally play some 10NL even tho its a joke for my roll. But Im just a bankroll nit, maybe I should try sometimes 25NL so that I could give some of my money to you <- at least the runbad would end then 🤣! But I find cash geniuses very intresting to listen and from time to time still conspect cash stuff myself just to have it in my sleeves, but practically do not have any hands over 25. 

Good job on winning Neptune, its a great tournament and even better when winning 😉 !