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Estzen

Group: Full House
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Everything posted by Estzen

  1. Oh of course, in terms of leaderboard, its very low value and I was already gained points enought to be 25th even if I wouldnt have played any events yesterday I gues. Playng the highest varience vs playng it less would make less profit long run by higher varience plays? No its actually the exact opposite and thats why PKOs are so swingy. Thats what makes them swingy! Because, you make +EV calls that also need pretty good runout for you... but since the calls themselves are +EV, in the end you will make more money and actually lose value by NOT MAKING THEM. Dont forget, that the math already assumes that its longrun, so it will make more money and cannot make less money by doing so.... however, in shortterm, it can be a bitch... a big one. Certainly more swing than playng normals, but in the end PKOs make more money than Normals because people make more and bigger mistakes in them. Getting 250 Supermoon ticket is pretty small value in terms of that. The leaderboard was like a satellite and not like MTT 😄 So in that sense, there was no point to push... but in terms of varience... I mean if its +EV call or +EV jam.. I really dont care 😄 or try not to care about losing the game. But there is a twist to that and like I stated, in Bounty FTs people make big errors, with calling down bounty values because "I get same value by 2 places" <- because they dont take into account that, 1st place pays double with your own bounty and you will potentially lose the possibility to cover people etc. So there many sims where surprise surprise, its like TT+ call-off lol .
  2. So guys heres the story. From a good point of view - Im 2nd in the Anniversary Leaderboard, and it gives me the ability to play Supermoon at some week... sadly it doesnt matter who's 1st or 25. But anyway. Maybe some might be thinking also, that the Bounty leaderboard is just for fish and only people who gamble will get there. While, there are certainly people who probably did so, I think there is 2 parts how to get higher to the there. One is probably doing rebuys - even tho at bountis when there is chunck of the field gone - we should not rebuy anymore. Yesterday day I ruined my Hyper- tho with not realizing that I should jam and get rid of my stack and get normal stack fast again by rebuy... Instead ... I sticked with 800 chips ... which later on showd that it wasnt a good decision. 2nd is not rather gambling(cuz it wont be as consistent even tho can give you hits) , but rather the abilities to play bounties correctly. In ICM there is a thing we call Risk Premium - the higher the RP the tigher we wanna be, and that RP is something that discounts our equity. So when in a certain situation specially like when 2 bigger stacks go each against themselves, their RP is much higher and if you have say 52% equity in some hand lets say AK vs 77s or smth .. then with RP added, you kind of discount your equity in terms of payjumps and chip interactions. so its not 52% anymore its m maybe 45%. Why am I talking about that? Im talking about that because Bounty value in a nutshell, is the exact opposite of ICM RP. Its like "Negative Risk-Premium" For instane when everyone in the start have 1 Bounty value and 1 stack value(starting stack) - with everything in the start, it already is 5% added value. So when you have a hand that say wins 43% it may be an easy call, cuz you only need 45% to be winning, but now you need only 40% to be winning! Because of the bounty. <- so because of that dynamics, some ranges can be VERY LOOSE. at the same time, people put too much weight on bounties at final tables and sometimes I forget this myself too. Even tho bounty ranges are wider in FT than in Normal, they are still often alike - very tight. Due to all that bounty interaction it makes the game a lot diffrent, and most people are still playng bounties as normals where their losing value even tho can be played profitably like that too ofc. And you certainly dont have the higher varience, since you are not making these -EV calls that are +EV calls in the bounties which skyrocket the Bounty Varience if played correctly. I think most people who got to the leaderboard were guys who knew some stuff, or just happened to make some correct decisions rather than mindless hunters, because my prediction would be that these mindless hunters probably would be too insane to remain consistency. One of the things also that sometimes matters in table dynamics is, the people to your left and how much they 3bet. If they are nits and almost never 3bet. You can basically open your A5o to play it against the BB with some frequency if their passive and you cover. Its also very important that you also take into account that if you have a bounty and people cover you, you cannot shove your like "loose normal range". I hope this mumbling helped some community member a small amount. I really liked the Anniversary events and will look forward to next UOS. But work has to be done these days, because from this weeks point Im down like €1000 in total. So I need like a Neptune win or something xD. Leaderboard Conclusion: Game 1: Anniversary 8k. Really unfortunate, I was almost ITM and decided to "go broke or get it all" and Jammed my AJs. which later I thought that with Suited combo could have easily just called due to ICM effects, 20 effective, but at the same time.. wasnt probably a -EV jam, but yea... from hindsight... that freaking sucked. Game 2 Anniversary 4k: Game 3: Anniversary 2k: Game 4: Anniversary 2k Hyper: So the in the 8k hand: I also calced by bounty value, now when writing this blog so if it wouldnt be bubble, its actually pretty close to normal, so if it wouldnt be near bubble, people probably would only look the €44 eur bounty and call off wider than they actually should. Which in their part would be a mistake - which makes a jam a bit better probably? But yeah in terms of ITM, I was a bit stubborn there, even tho it would give good FT EV... to me. I jammed, was against 66es and there we go. Yesterday also had a really crazy hand where it was something like KK vs TT and one guy had blocked Tx with JT on his small stack multiway or maybe he showed, anyway we saw the JT and it still got the 1outer on the river 😄 . Well what an we do xD. Till the next Unibet Event games!
  3. Your moans are reasonable 😄 the AA hand with KK + K3 - I feel the heartbreak xD People like to fish some roulette with deck coming for them. In time, you will get back to your road. Maybe too many shots at NL50?(before) What do you think?
  4. Even If I wouldnt play today the Anniversary leaderboard should be settled, since 25th has 36 points, and I have 61 with being 4th. But We will be playng for sure. Yesterdays recap: Didnt get much out, than bounties. Game 1 Anniversary 6k: 'cant do anything in here: Game 2 Anniversary 4k: Got pretty deep, but ended there Left me with 3 BB which didnt help to get me back anymore. pre-jammed CO opens I jam and Lotto rejams. I had like 11 eff. Game 3 Anniversary 2k: This one was the most UL in the sence that its almost FT bubble 😄 And here the AK just didnt get there, I had 8 BB at that point. He opened 66es. And got me which was of course very good for him there. I've started to see REGtoREC in many deep runs too, seems like he has got some click some time ago. Wasnt so much occuring before so shout out to him too! Today will be the last day so - will be an intresting fight.
  5. Played some 10s too 😄 ... GG and well to sleep. Annis wasnt so good. But tomorrow will be a blast 😉
  6. Poker is a game of assumptions. If people dont have a brain and they use a solver, they get nothing out of it cuz they dont understand the theory enough. But People who do have a brain and know and understand what their using, will get better a lot. I think peoples lack of understanding is what confuses the mix a lot. If AI would be so bad then Pleriubus wouldnt go and beat everyone. Its rather that most people who are somewhere with very basic knowledge, do not understand how to apply things.
  7. You are totally right 😉 ; the amount of rec stuff can be seen is enorumous..
  8. Okay, like maybe tomorrow some before Annis start? 200NL winning .. okay 😄 should be crushing 10s then 😄
  9. We can play them , do you want to? 😄
  10. Since your already doing that, could lay out $5 ones as the 10s are super scewed there, I dont even remember much of playng these and the one sheet you show is like 2021 in January , I have no idea why these games are even there. Ive never played these 18s much, but have started to chill in these just on some of my "free days" and so on. But I dont hard grind them. @WuDu if you want to , u can message and play 2gether for the fun of it .
  11. @WuDu to your suggestion, Im really not into thinking I have to prove something to someone, and Ive already welcomed anyone to play Anni's but I dont see much people bloging about it. But I really dont care about that, Im just doing my thing and Im happy about it.
  12. $5 dollar 18men are just for fun, and I play them usually only for time flow, I think 124 games is a bit shallow size to say much and I dont grind them to specialize, I could play clearly higher with my roll, but I just dont. I have no idea what my overall size would be there, and I highly doubt I would be losing at micro sngs lol. But OK. 😄 @WuDu
  13. We dont need to know that, and its not really a surprise thats exactly who you are. If theres a need for shitposting there is an off-topic section in the forum. Or always possible the ability to make your own blog.
  14. You cannot get over it, very mature.
  15. That sure is a bit arrogant, but there is a reason for that answer, which is someone wanting to build anothe line of drama. Seeing your reaction in the other one, I can only imagine what response could come from you if ways would be turned around. I think , should just check and option of possibility to block people so that I wouldnt be seeing this nonsense. Towards me playng on a saturday, it comes down to making my own decisions. At least when Im outside, maybe on some other day- I have money to use for being outside. Being with family and friends is much better than being in a mindless party with recklessness, so I dont feel even missing anything.
  16. Very nice hit, Extremes seem to be great value, but really swingy. Tho all the nits just give their roll to you. 😝
  17. Dude, go out to the sun and shut up. You are argueing that you have enought, doesnt seem so. So shut up and get out of it 3 sentences was your toll, should be enought but like we see, it isnt. Im not going for another ring, you can go register $11 6max and $11 mini saturday KO to meet me at stars, bye.
  18. yeah, 3 sentences - you just cant be able to stop , surely 3 sentences...
  19. Anniversary 24th June Games: Yesterday many times got AK vs KQ where KQ had Merenitsu outs and hit me out. Even one non-Anniversary game. I ll just post the game results, I dont have time to type down after this lenghty writing: Got 9 KOs, still in the leaderboard Supermoon TiX are coming and just in need for some more Final Tables. Anyway yesterday sucked. All pretty decent deep runs, but went south. Maybe 25 will do better. Game 1 6k: Game 2 4k: Game 3 2k:
  20. I have no-where claimed to be a certified Online Psychologist. Even tho I do have read literature and been in classes out of intrest for 4 years, so I do know somethings. We are spreading hairs here - the problem didnt start from me insulting him, but it was him who used the irony to which I finally decided to go too, since there seemed to be no stop. Go and look to yourself, It wasnt me who was going with all the irony... I just finally got enought of it, hence the wife comment. I dont have time to start searching PubMed and stuff for it, there sure are some and you can find them if you want to, I have better things to do on Saturday to start searching for psych literature atm.
  21. I advise you to go read the "dialogue" of me and Cris again, because for me there is nothing about "bulding myself up" ... its rather your persception of that. All I did was told that his moaning about varience is really incompentant. Go and scroll this small blog and try to find how many times you see some "moaning post" about hands? ZERO. Last year I had an episode of being in a downer for 3 MONTHS.. did I make posts about this kind of shit somewhere? NO. Because unlike people like moaners who do zero work for it, I do understand that varience can be a big bitch. Theres a pretty good russian pro, "ahahahaoh" , you can find like more than 1000 games lenght swings in his graph ... some people just are unable to take in facts <- somehow Im lifting up myself - like wth lol .
  22. One side note more, its cool when some people (but not you Pionrj) , are criticizing me when even from these smaller accounts are all in profit, yet they cannot even be +EV in these. And I have nothing to hide in that sense, that from the old Microgaming graph you can also see, kinda the line when things started to get better for me... the whole losing part there shows very nicely the turning point, even tho it doesnt get into profit because I didnt took the time back then to put it my main focus of place. But here is also an old graph from OnGame network from older times: games consisting mainly MTTs $5, - and compared to today, I would say that actually my game sucked back then, but it was enough for the these fields... that is in somewhere 2015ish
  23. I wasnt going to think, that I get something like this when I open Unibet Community. So, you can check out the whole discussion on and no, its not started by me. Its was all about Cris not being able to take a comment over 12 hexa losses. Then going ham on and starting the irony. NOT ME. Then yes, I really did make the title an Empty Blog because for me, it was just laughable. And now, if you count the comments which are the off-topic ones, their not mine. Their from these same stalkers. 😄 (The wife comment btw was a reacted comment against the irony that was put out before.) Sure, everything write out could be just a "persona" , but if someone is getting so pissed over these things, we can make some conclusion, are they clincal? No. Can we speculate? Yes. And no its not stupid to make these assumptions, because their is valid research on for instance "news commenting population" etc and people who tend to do these kinda of stuff. Does it 100% mean that my assumption is right? Of course not. Can I make the assumption with it also being corret? Yes. I think I still have my speech validation just like anyone else. Specially if someone uses irony and then is so much taken back by it when it was used against him too. If you think "shitposting" to peoples blogs is mature, then fine you can go and believe it. In terms of my sharkscopes, its great that you are able to pull these up and look my mostly inactive noob accounts, + the fact that Im a major bankroll nit and split my rolls. Im not some high stakes reg, but I'd do have online midstakes results with beating the games. And for instance, this Unibet account has been opened with a single 10 euro deposit which for long time was pretty much the only deposit I had made to it. Later on there are some added deposits for bonuses that I have made, but basically this roll has been built up from that 10 euro and admins can confirm it to you if you really want to.. And today Im playng actively 25s and 50s daily here... So I really dont need your confirmation for my games, I see them myself. And you can come and play these with your own open blog too if you so much want to. I guess posting pig pictures for some people is very mature...
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