BonusPater

Obviously busted Cosmic Rays as well. Could easily have made it to the money, but two hours of poker takes it toll on me, and I ended up making a stupid play - not that it's a rare thing from my end :D Well, registered for the € 250 UO shortly after busting the Cosmis Rays. Pretty stupid decision, considering I knew I had to make those damn pizzas. Ended up running between the kitchen and the BBQ, with my iPad and Unibet Poker lying on a table close to the BBQ. Auto-folded like 10 times, and twice AK suited. Lost close to 1000 chips before I really started playing - so much for taking it serious :D Was down to just over 2k a short while ago, but I'm back at 4.7k now. Here's my prediction for the rest of the tournament.

Will latereg for the 250e UO, as I'm still in the Cosmic Rays and also need to make some pizzas :)

Luckily I haven't been the only player who wanted to see some cards. Status at the break.

Full on yolo play in spectrum and cosmic rays. Better get it out of my system now :D

Certainly hope so :D just chilling at home, so decided to play spectrum and cosmic rays as well - got a feeling I need to slowly warm up the rigger RNG :)

Out in the supernova qualifier with the best starting hand I had during the entire tournament (never ran this bad before, let's hope it will change tonight :) ). Preflop all in.

Haha, I'm best under pressure ;) Playing the 10e qualifier for the Supernova now, to warm up for tonight :)

Goal number 1: hold on to that position. Will post some updates during the breaks (hopefully plural). Considered streaming, but not really feeling up for it today, so will have to be another time.

Too easy. One more tournament on Sunday and I'll be heading to Bucharest in a couple of months :)

So thats why they are calling you a fish in the bingo thread 🤣 Naaah, think I just busted them a few times, and it's easier to deal with, if they convince themselves it was pure luck ;)

Yeah, I'm happy to share the only rule you need to know, in order to apply Stubbe brm to your play: Always play the highest possible buyin

Been a while since the last post, as I haven't been playing any poker, other than the occasional spin and go max bingo. Will be playing the € 50 UO tournament tonight, if I remember. Might post a few hands after the tournament, to show how not to bluff. will be playing with this identity

I'd go with Philipp, but I'd wait till you have the lineup, as I'm not sure he'll start :)

@VikingsAF, lesson # 3: don't play MTT's like BonusPater: Haven't played much recently, as I've been doing some betting instead (ROI on odds currently at 33, so at least I'm winning money somewhere :D ) With the Bundesliga being back, and my business idea soon requiring a lot of work, I'm afraid I won't have much time to play in the near future. Registered for the last four community league tournaments, but only played the one of them (played 10 hands like a maniac, as it was the deepstack and I don't have patience for that) :) I will resume the blogging at some point, but don't think it'll be before I start playing the UO Bucharest qualifiers - don't worry, will let you all know, so you can join for the value :D

Will put together an Excel sheet like last season and post it later this week. Unibet have got some real ❤️♥️❤️ty 1X2 odds on the Bundesliga this week, and I have had a hard time finding any value in the early odds. I'm sure there'll be something interesting by Friday or when the goal scorer odds are published. For now I've only got one bet for this week, and it's one with little value: Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha Berlin - Over 3.5 goals - Odds 2.48 :cash: (Saturday 18:30 CET) If you want something more risky and don't care much about the value, try the below ;) Odds 238.1: Odds 49.47:

Not the worst start :) +2 units Auba ATG +3.2 units Kono ATG -1 unit S04 over 2.5

I hope you're right, but I think we'll see goals in both ends. Schalke are not exactly starting with the strongest defense, and even against BFC Dynamo they were struggling a bit.

Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig - Over 2.5 goals - odds 1.94

@startelver. Thanks for mentioning this promotion, wasn't aware of it. For anyone who wants to see the odds, go to this page: https://www.unibet.co.uk/betting#filter/unibet_featured/football/goalscorer_weekend 2.40 is very decent (second highest on the market is 2.05), but I'd rather go with Aubameyang at odds 2. Tomorrow's game could very well be the first surprise of the year, and odds 15 on Leverkusen (not at Unibet) holds some decent value imo. If you want to bet on the Bayern vs Bayer match at Unibet, the Robben bet is not a bad pick though :) Recommend the Auba bet and will put 2 units on it: VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund - AG: Aubameyang - Odds 2 (2 units)

As promised, here're a few words about why I think there's value in odds 4.20. Konoplyanka was considered one of the worst transfers of last season, and I can't say I disagree much with this, considering the value for money during the last year. I believe his poor performance was due to a few different things: 1. Weinzierl (former coach) should not expect any christmas card from the Ukrainian. The two were never best friends, and their relationship surely most have had an effect on the mental game. 2. It always takes time to get settled, after arriving at a new club in a new country. 3. He didn't fit in well in the formation. It was either wingback or striker, neither of which is his usual position. This season everything seems to be changing. Schalke are playing a 3-4-3, and Kono is the perfect fit for the wing - he doesn't have to defend and can focus on what he does best. He's the positive surprise of the pre-season with quite a few great games, most recently in the cup where he scored both of Schalke's goals in the 0-2 win. He got a lot of great balls behind the defenders, and he could honestly have scored 4 goals in the game. Leipzig is not the easiest of matches, but I expect the team from Gelsenkirchen to score (odds 1.27), and possibly two goals. Burgstaller (odds 2.90) and Kono (odds 4.20) are my favorites, and I don't think the odds on Kono reflects his new position and recent form.

Schalke to score over 49.5 goals in the Bundesliga Stuttgart to score under 45.5 goals in the Bundesliga Bayern to score under 82.5 goals in the Bundesliga No crazy value here. Stuttgart being the one with the most.

Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig - AG: Konoplyanka - Odds 4.20 Will post some justification later. @Angellike regarding the season bets. Sorry I haven't provided any details. Unfortunately I don't have time to do this very often, and I'd rather post my bets without reasoning than not post anything at all. As there's no value anymore, I don't want to spend more time on that particular bet. Hope to post a few more bets during the week.

Dexter, Black Sails and Vikings are all decent entertainment. Got loads of documentary recommendations, but they're rarely on Netflix :)

Didn't exactly go as expected with the odds on Dortmund. The odds has decreased so much that I actually think there's a bit of value in Bayern now. Will wait a bit, before placing any bets. Schalke are also playing today, against Crystal Palace. Unibet have got very low odds on this match, but there's a bit of value in 2.70 on Schalke at Betxxx :) Quick update on season bets: Auba TGS. Was 8, now 5. Dembele most assists. Still at 5.5. Rodriguez under 9.5. Was 1.85, now 1.5. Lewandowski under 28.5. Still 1.75

I don't agree, surprise :) There certainly are high fluctuations, but that's also reflected in the odds for this outcome, I believe. The fluctuations are greater than for goals, but not as much as you make it sound like. It's difficult to say anything based on Dembeles stats, but if you look at a player like Müller - just one example of a player who's played at the same club for quite a few years and make a decent amount of assists - he's been very consistent. The same goes for Ribery and pretty much all other players I've checked. If you only focus on the one player with the most assists, it'll seem like it's pretty random, but that's not really the case. I'm looking at placing a bet on Dortmund to win against Bayern in the weekend, but the odds has decreased at Unibet and is currently at 3.5 (was 4 about a week ago). I do think it'll increase slightly on Friday or Saturday, so might post the pick then.