Jump to content

Queen of flips - The odds


Ripper

Recommended Posts

So I saw the queen of flips promotion, looked at the payouts, and noticed it at least doubles each flip. So I thought "great, in the long run its best to always flip until you win the UO package" (assuming 50% win chance of each flip). But then I remembered I only have 28 days to flip, I won't reach that mythical beast "The long run". So I did some maths to figure out my odds of winning the UO package if I always flipped.

Disclaimer: Between my rusty maths and the scientific calculator I googled I'd be surprised if these are all correct.

If I collect all possible Bronze tokens (140) and always flip the chance of me getting at least one UO package is 0.85% (2.d.p.)

Ditto Silver tokens 6.61%

Ditto Gold tokens 23.94%

So if I always flip I'll probably not win anything. So how do i decide when to stop flipping?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Edit: Deleting the part where I just did a bunch of math wrong. Seems to me that your math is correct.:happy:

As to your question about when do you know when to stop flipping, it depends on your priorities/goals and is a question you can only answer for yourself. Once you're at e.g. 80k bonus points (worth essentially 800€ in internetpokers money), you have to ask yourself whether you want to risk that for a flip to win a live tourney package worth 2k€. Maybe the 800€ is a big enough boost for someone's bankroll that they should collect that, and the ability to play bigger games than previously will give them a higher ev spot than going for the last flip for the package. Maybe someone enjoys online poker, but doesn't enjoy live poker and traveling, so they might want to collect the 80k bonus points since it's essentially bigger life ev. If it's all the same to you, and you're just going for max value, you should just go for every flip.

P.S Could someone from Unibet confirm how many bonus points you can convert an extra package to, if you happened to win one from this promotion, but already had a UO package won through challenges, and planned on making all future packages thru challenges also in the foreseeable future (i.e. one had no reason to postpone package to next event)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is something wrong with calculations like these.

You calculated the chance of getting that big win, but you should calculate all possibilities to see what's the most profitable...

Gonna keep it short. 7 is the magic number 2^7<140 (and 2^8 is too big) meaning that you will make it (statistically) at least causing you to certainly have that profit. Ofcourse... The biggest equity is in flipping to the end, but there is no certainty.

If you want further calculations and a more in depth analysis to what you should do, I could make some time tomorrow.

As I also want to mention other techniques to optimize profit in this game (over the 28 day period) 

 

I see now that the circumstances of ones birth are irrelevant... It is what you do with the gift of life that determines who you are.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Optimizing (expected) profit = taking on every single flip presented to you.

Creating artificial goals based on whatever someone would be content with is totally subjective, like are you conna be happy with a 75% chance to have a Supernova ticket by the end of the month, or with giving yourself a 50% chance to have 20k bonus points by the end of the month is a whole other thing, but that's not the optimal way to go about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To go more in depth, while it's still true that just expected value -wise you should go for every single flip till the end, there are a lot of flip steps where the value of flipping is zero EV. So if you're plan is to flip till the end, you should go for e.g. the 3rd and 2nd last flips which are 20k bonus points to 40k bonus points, and 40k bonus points to 80k bonus points, which are 0 EV flips in themselves, but the fact that you get to a +EV flip by the end (80k bonus points to win a 2k€ package) means you taking on those earlier 0 EV flips are +EV given the complete strategy. Then again if you're a winning player who would for some reason quit flipping at 80k bonus points, refusing the last flip, you should probably cash out even earlier, since you can put that money (bonus points) to work with a better EV than a zero EV flip for more bonus points. For example if you regularily buy in to the 100€ Supernova, and getting that ticket saves you the buy in from your balance, you're not gaining any value in continuing flipping from there on, unless you try to flip until the package. If you don't care about the Supernova, and get to 20k bonus points, but don't plan to try flipping to the end, you should probably collect at that point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...