Flopping the flush draw - what next?

[pamwechete]

My question for debate is this: You have a couple of cards of a suit in your hand and flop the flush draw. So if the 2 whole cards are on or close to possible nut flush draws, you so often see people and hear commentators extolling the value of the call and even a raise, due to implied value should you hit. The reason they often throw out is the 35% chance of hitting a card of that suit on either the turn or river. But you just as often see the player fold to a relatively minor bet when they miss the card on the turn.

So my thinking is as such. If you are factoring in the odds of hitting card in the next 2 draw cards, then surely it is only valid if you play both the turn and river, or your initial calculation was wrong and you only have a 19% chance, which is the odds for hitting on the turn. Obviously you may have a few more outs if your hole cards are overcards and a pair hits, but i am just talking flush here. So when you decide what to do, should you not commit to both turn and river, and factor in possible bets from opponent on the turn

I look forward to thinking of others on this topic.

 

[JeppeL]

Some theory on hitting flushes in poker, I like it :)

[ArtyMcFly]

No limit holdem is a game of implied odds.

Although you might not have the immediate odds to draw to a flush/straight, it's often the case that if you hit your draw, you'll be able to get paid off when you do.

e.g. If villain has TPTK and you have a naked flush draw (no overcards) and he bets the flop, you'll typically call a fairly large bet even if you only have about an 18% chance of binking the flush on the turn. The reason is that if you hit the flush, and villain bets again, you're getting more value than was in the pot when you called the flop bet. Similarly, if villain checks the turn, you can bet and he'll nearly always call. He might even call on the river as well, so when you called on the flop, you're actually thinking "If I make the flush, I can win what's in the pot on the flop, PLUS any money that goes in on the turn, AND possibly even more on the river".

Another factor is that sometimes you make money even if you don't hit the flush, because you might be able to bluff your opponent. e.g. He bets flop, you call. He bets the turn, you call. River comes and it makes it possible for you to have a straight or trips or something that beats top pair. If villain checks, you can bluff and make him fold. In other words, when you see a flop bet, you have to think "Am I going to win this hand in one way or another often enough to call this bet?"

[VikingsAF]

@ArtyMcFly

What you say is right, but that wasn't the point of OP. 

And I agree with him. That you should incalculate  a turn bet aswell, when calling on the flop with a flush draw.

Because if you don't, then you are just calling the turn with the same odds as "you thought you would call the river"

Saying. "I'll let go on the turn if I brick" is exactly the same as if you would call the same bet on the river (in an equal pot)

Saying that you get 'extra money' isn't completely correct, since the villain won't bet the same on a board where a flush is possible as he would on any other board. 

[pamwechete]

Vikings is right , what Arty said was correct but somewhat unrelated to my point. which was that to play the flush draw on odds, one should really commit to both turn and river.  Of course the poker gods deem it necessary for you to hit the flush draw on the turn and then the villain ,borrowing that one from you Arty, for now and future use ;)  spikes his full house on river with his 2 pairs 5's and deuces what was he doing there in the first place !!! 

That happened since i posted this, but i'm not bitter, honest