Jesper's UFC Corner

[Jesper-Unibet]

Hello everyone!

In my inaugural post on the Unibet community I will share my thoughts on UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 taking place this weekend.

On June 4 (technically June 5 for us Europeans), the Forum in Inglewood California will host a stacked card of organized and legalised violence packaged as a Sport. What’s not to love?

Below are my thoughts and betting tips for three of the main card fights. Rather than looking for good value - but low odds – picks on favourites, I prefer to look for picks with as high odds as possible that still are fairly probable. Two of the picks fit this category. To spice it up a little, I've added a long-shot bet as well, for those of you who like high risk, high reward opportunities :)

1. Bobby Green vs Dustin Poirier

My Pick
Likelihood: Moderate-High
Market: Any fighter to win by Unanimous decision
Bet: Yes
Odds: 2.20

Poirier is the favourite here, and he's got quite a few finishes in the past. But I don't think he'll be able to finish the very durable Green, whose fights tend to go to decision regardless if he wins or loses. In fact, I think Green is more likely to finish Poirier despite being the underdog - Dustin chin has looked like glass at times.
My key concern here would be that the decision won't be unanimous. I could see this turning into a close contested war with a split decision as the outcome.

 

2. Dominick Cruz vs Urijah Faber

My Pick
Likelihood: Longshot
Market: To win by Split or Majority Decision
Bet: Dominick Cruz, Yes
Odds: 18.00

These guys truly despise each other, and the rubber-match is finally here (they've won one each). However, Faber is clearly at the very end of a long and lustrous career. The question is if the heated rivalry with Cruz can help him perform at the absolute peak of his abilities? If yes, I could see this turning into an emotional war, where technique, skill and ages play less of role in favor of heart and perseverance. And this type of a fight quite often ends with a split decision victory for one of the fighters. And with odds as high as 18.00 on Cruz, it's hard not to resist placing a small stake bet on this scenario coming true.

3. Luke Rockhold vs Michael Bisping

My Pick
Likelihood: Low-Moderate
Market: Winning round
Bet: Rockhold - Round 2
Odds: 4.00

I've rooted for Bisping in his long journey towards that elusive title shot. He's been close many times, but has had a tendency to fall short whenever he has faced the absolute elite of the division. He (sort of) broke that pattern when he eeked out a decision vs Anderson Silva earlier this year. However, in all honesty, I think that was more on account of Silva's decline than an indication that Bisping finally had made it to the absolute top level of the sport. Now, as he finally has booked a shot at the title, I think Rockhold will be too much for the Brit. Luke should get this done with relative ease, the question isn't if, but when and how. Round two is my guess.

That's it folks. Good luck with your picks. And remember... LUCK IS NO COINCIDENCE!

All the best,
Jesper

[tehumardi1]

gl:smileyembarrassed:

[desinere]

I prefer big odds, too small odds means to me too small winnings.

[Emiboo]

Very good tips, especially that Dominic Cruz one.

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[paulowy]

I will definitely use your tips, its very nice of you to share your tips with community, thanks very much! 

[daddy]

big ufc fan,i've seen all the shows since ufc 1. ufc 199 was crazy,great fights,i was happy for bisping in the end,dominick cruz very unpredictable movement inside the octogon,great skills.

[Sect7G]

I didn't see this thread :(.   Thanks for your write up and look forward to UFC 200.