Betting on the election in Germany

[WuDu]

Official results are in, but first let's take a look at what I projected:

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@WuDu wrote:

Now the question is how high do I project the voter turnout to be this year? Let’s assume the tendency from the Sample 8 states continues, meaning we’ll see 17 % of non-voters and non-valid-voters in 2013 voting valid in 2017. In 2013 we had 18,22 million people not casting a valid vote. If this number decreases by 17 %, we’ll reach a projection of 15,12 million non- and non-valid votes in 2017. With round about 62 million voters in Germany, that would result in 75,6 % valid votes. Voter turnout equals all the valid votes plus all the non-valid votes. Non-valid votes are when people show up at the voting booth and tick more than one box or write in another candidate. Non-valid votes usually make up a tad more than 1 % of all votes which would lead us to a voter turnout of almost 77 %.

In contrast to the federal election in 2013, the SPD lost 14,56% of their voters. If we use this result to extrapolate the potential number of voters for the remaining eight states as well, we get the following estimation: In 2013, 11.252.215 people voted SPD. If we reduce this number by 14,56 %, we’ll end up at 9.613.105 potential votes. Heck, in my excel calculation I gave them an additional 10 K for the LOLs as well due to the higher voter turnout.

Let’s assume we get 75 % valid votes out of the 62 million potential voters in Germany, that would lead to 46.5 million in absolute numbers and an estimated projection of 20,69 % for the SPD. Since the SPD doesn’t profit from a higher turnout, the more people show up to vote, the lower the percentage for the SPD.

 

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SPD official votes in 2017: 9.538.367. My projection: 9.613.105. I was off by 74.738 votes or 0,78 %.

SPD percentage in 2017: 20,51 %. My projection: 20,69 %. I was off by 0,18 %-points.

Total valid votes in 2017: 46.506.857. My projection: 46.500.000. I was off by 6.857 votes or 0,014 %.

Percentage of valid votes in 2017: 75,40 %. My projection was 75,6 %, however I calculated with 75 % to be on the safe side, thus I was off by 0,20 %-points or 0,40 %-points.

People not voting or non-valid voting in 2017: 15.168.672. My projection: 15.120.000. I was off by 48.672 votes or 0,32 %.

Voter turnout in 2017: 76,16 %. My projection: A little less than 77 %. I was off by round about 0,7 %-points.

What do we learn from that? Just remember the next time you see political polling in your home country, it's probably all bullsh*t, designed to keep a bogus industry occupied and mostly used to manipulate the masses. In this case I got numbers that are very close to being accurate just by using Microsoft Excel, publicly known data from a few elections and my brain power. There was no late shift, there was no splitting of votes, I expected those results since May.

OK guys, maybe some of you did bet on the next coalition governing Germany and are hoping that we're going to see a Jamaica-coalition, as those odds were falling massively over the past week. Well, not so fast my friends, if I have time, I will explain to you why this will be ultra tough to pull through. Also if some of you (non-Germans) have questions about the outcome or German politics in general and want an honest, non Fake News answer, feel free to ask. I'll always have time for that...😃

To conclude, well Unibet, you know the time would come:0D9Mv

 

 

 

 

 

[BonusPater]

Impressive! :) haven't looked at the results in detail just yet, but will do so later today

[WuDu]

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@WuDu wrote:

OK guys, maybe some of you did bet on the next coalition governing Germany and are hoping that we're going to see a Jamaica-coalition, as those odds were falling massively over the past week. Well, not so fast my friends, if I have time, I will explain to you why this will be ultra tough to pull through.

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Great election results in Austria today, LOLsy one in Lower-Saxony in Germany. Just in case some of you wondered, over the last 3 weeks there have been no negotiations to form the next German government, as they were all waiting for the results in Lower-Saxony. That gamble fired back massively for Ms Merkel. Will be really interesting to see if you guys who bet on CDU/FDP/Greens to form the next government will succeed in the end.

[WuDu]

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@WuDu wrote:

 

OK guys, maybe some of you did bet on the next coalition governing Germany and are hoping that we're going to see a Jamaica-coalition, as those odds were falling massively over the past week. Well, not so fast my friends, if I have time, I will explain to you why this will be ultra tough to pull through.

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Liberal democrats dropped out of negotiations just now! Maybe we get rid of Ms Merkel much, much earlier than even I hoped!Daniel-Bryan-YES-YES-YES