KKorppu's Value Plays for UFC The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale

[KKorppu]

Here comes the Day 2 of this fantastic UFC week of betting, once again I'm including the odds on Unibet at the time of writing and a short explanation.

MAIN PICKS

Cezar Ferreira vs. Anthony Smith:   Cezar Ferreira to win by finishing (incl. KO/TKO/SUB/DISQ etc.)  (3.00)
+Bonus play:   Goes to a referee decision:   No (1.29)
Have you ever wanted to bet on low odds in hopes of "free" money? Well this is a chance for you since this is a battle between two strong finishers who also enjoy getting finished themselves more often than not. Ferreira, the underdog going into this fight, has been knocked out in four of his five losses and Smith has also been finished in all eleven of his losses, so the odds very strongly favor a finish happening here. Smith has been on a win streak as of late, but none of the opponents have been close to Ferreira's level, so I see much value in Ferreira as an underdog.

Cory Hendricks vs. Josh Stansbury:   Cory Hendricks to win (2.00)
Cory Hendricks was though by many to be one of the best fighters on the cast, but his participation in the competition was cut short due to a neck injury. He has a good set of skills and I think there is good value on him winning this bout by submission. Unfortunately "win by submission" was not available on Unibet, atleast at the time of writing, so I had to settle with the regular one.

John Moraga vs. Matheus Nicolau Pereira: John Moraga to win (1.62)
+Bonus play:   John Moraga to win by finishing (incl. KO/TKO/SUB/DISQ etc.) (3.40)
Moraga is one of the top fighters at his weight class, very well-rounded with strong striking, strong submissions and solid wrestling, so expect hard times for his opponent. Moraga is the clear favorite here and it's easy to see why. Five of Moraga's six UFC wins have come by stoppage and this is definitely a match where I would try to make an extra buck by betting on a finish.

Joaquim Silva vs. Andrew Holbrook: Andrew Holbrook to win (2.00)
Silva is coming into his second UFC match with a pure record of 8-0, but did not look impressive in his first bout that he won luckily by decision. Holbrook is much more well-rounded and looked more impressive in his one UFC bout. Holbrook has also scored ten of his eleven wins by stoppage, so I like him more going into this fight.

Doo Ho Choi vs. Thiago Tavares:   Doo Ho Choi to win by KO, TKO or DQ (1.80)
This is not going to be easy for Choi going up against a tough veteran, but it's a fight where I see the cards being in Choi's favor. Four of Tavares' six losses have been by knockout, so he can be finished, and Choi has exactly what it takes, excellent knockout power.


BONUS SECTION
To be consumed with a grain of salt :)

Jake Matthews vs. Kevin Lee:   Jake Matthews to win (1.67)
Gray Maynard vs. Fernando Bruno:   Fernando Bruno to win (2.30)
Ross Pearson vs. Will Brooks:   Will Brooks to win by decision (1.91)
Andrew Sanchez vs. Khalil Rountree:   Khalil Rountree to win (2.20)


What kind of valuable betting opportunities have you guys found for tonight's event? :)

[Hoovers]

I´v try Hunt winner @1.6. The KO win is only at 1.67, so no use trying IMO, but i think that Hunt win on KO , maybe even round one. His opponent have been away from the fighting ring for several years as i understand it. Note - I know exactly nothing about this fights, only bet on what i´v read.