Angelic betting analysis with Angellike

[Angellike]

Okay, so here goes my attempt at becoming 'expert tipster of the month'. Please disregard my results in the Unibet Championship; I place nowhere close to 50 bets a week on a regular basis and thus it doesn't count ;) In all seriousness I'm not a sportsbetter by trade (P.E. & English teacher) but have started making money since I've taken it (betting) a bit more seriously.

Hopefully I can be given a pass on the "at least 5 hours before the match starts", 4:35 is surely okay this once? :)

I was told by a friend that since the introduction of markets other than "1-X-2" profits for betting companies have skyrocketed since one can bet on who wins the kick-off, odd or even amount of throw-ins, if there will be 4 minutes of added on time etc, so perhaps my first 'expert' pick is somewhat contradictive but here it goes:

Background

Corners (Germany)

Germany – Ukraine 6-12

Germany – Poland 8-2

Germany – Northern Ireland 6-3

Germany – Slovakia 8-1

Average: 11.5/match, 7 for Germany

 

Corners (Italy)

Italy – Belgium 6-8

Italy – Sweden 7-4

Italy – Ireland 4-4

Italy – Spain 5-9

Average: 11.75/match, 5.5 for Italy

O(ver)10.5 corners gets you 1.88 at time of writing - a bet I see as clear value.

There is a possible development of the game where Italy show their fantastic defensive qualities and Germany rely on their attacking skills and try to work their way through the middle rather than sending in crosses. I heard ahead of the Italy-Sweden game that Italy had been faced with 63 attempts at getting the ball into their penalty area and Italy dealt with/headed away 60 of them... But Germany are Germany and if they equal their lowest number of corners in this tournament (6) and Italy theirs (accept for the second string side featuring eight non-starting players vs Ireland) (5) our bet is good.

I'll be using a rating of 1-5 where 1 is a high risk/high reward bet and 5 is low risk/great value. I value this particular bet at 3.

[Angellike]

Three corners in the first eight minutes and I thought I was off and flying. No such luck as it stayed at 10 corners.

A few additions and corrections from my initial post:

I'll use a 1-10 system where each number signifies one unit; 1 unit = The bet is (probably) high risk/high reward, 10 units = Betting the wife, cause who doesn't need 1.87 wives? 

Also all bets posted will be for real money (from me).

Current status: 1 bet, 0 wins, 1 loss - -3 units

No betting tips today, but I hope France either wins 2-0 or loses. If I were a betting man I'd venture a bet on France -1.25 (for non asian handicap players that means we win all the money if France win by two goals or more, lose half our bet if France wins by one goal and full loss if there's a draw or Iceland win). The reason for hoping for a loss: I'm in a Euro prediction competition with 20 friends, I'm currently in second and the first place guy has France to win, I have Germany). Also Iceland are awesome.

[Angellike]

Portugal - Wales, semi-final #1

Quite the semi-final, the obviously most underachieving team vs the most overachieving (of the semi-final sides; Austria - Iceland will probably want a say overall). I think Portugal are awful. I think Wales are fantastic. Not enough of a analysis you say?

Tip 1 - O1.75 goals at 1.70 for 5 units (win if there's 3+ goals, half win if there's exactly two goals, loss if there's 1 or no goals)

Tip 2 - O3.5 goals at 6.20 for 1 unit (Unibet campaign, the knockout phase has produced (a lot) more goals than the group stages, worth a punt imo)

Tip 3 - BothTeamsToScore at 2.08 - for 2.5 units

Tip 4 - X2 or Wales +0.5 at 1.73 for 3 units

Analysis

#1 - Bale & Ronaldo (who have scored during the Euros) are enormous threats. Three of a combined ten games have contained < 2 goals; Por-Aus where both teams had gotten off to really bad starts (Por draw vs Iceland and Aus loss vs Hungary), knew that a point each would enable them to progress with wins over Hungary and Iceland respectively. Wales have scored in all their games. They have also gotten Ramsey and Davies suspended, awful for Wales but good for goals.

#2 - 5.50 is the 'normal' odds, other sites have 5.0ish, 6.20 in a match with a lot of goal scoring potential and should one side be losing (say 1-2 in the 70th minute) will have little to lose. The probability of 4+ goals is probably higher than 16.13%, closer to 20% making this an above EV bet.

#3 - As I stated Wales have scored in all their games, and Portugal have an abundance of attacking talent (and apart from Pepe, a quite limited defence). 

#4 - Portugal have drew all of their games after 90 mins so far, chances are that trend will continue. Wales are an upgraded Iceland with a superstar in Bale and I fancy their chances of getting at least a draw after 90 mins, a result they have achieved against everyone except a fortunate England who scored in the late stages of the match. 

[Angellike]

Special-games time!

I've been scouring through the player specials and think I've found a few fun bets and one mega bank. Note, all of the following games are decided in accordance with the official statistics that UEFA.com post - if that has any bearing on your decision to bet or not. They also include extra time should it come to that.

Gareth Bale: O1.5 shots OFF target at 1.90 for 2 units
He'll be working like a mad man and does fancy himself shots from spots where others elect to pass. Also he takes free-kicks.

Ronaldo: O2.5 fouls suffered at 1.85 for 1.5 units
CR has a lot of the ball, goes at players and often gets fouled. He's also one to go down easily.

Olivier Giroud: O0.5 No. of times caught offside at 1.72 for 1.5 units
Hummels missing, Germany have a young defence that often sits quite high up. France don't mind playing the long ball to their target man. Also Giroud is lazy at times at might just be found admiring himself on the big screen.

Griezmann: O0.5No. of times caught offside at 2.30 for 1 unit
Doesn't seem unreasonable to me. And I think regardless of it's France or Germany who takes the lead it's good for the bet.

Dmitri Payet: O0.5 no. of shots ON target at 1.45 for 15 units
What does Unibet know that I/we do not? Probably a whole lot since there's not an "Angellike365" bettingsite out there. But this seems like money in the bank. Payet has scored in three out of four games = shots on target. Takes most free-kicks = good chance for a shot on target. Is in great form and often fancies a shot. Can't see this missing. I haven't decided how big my bet is going to be, but since I'm not a pro I'm probably going to forget about the 10 unit rule and surpass that (by quite a bit). Will update with actual number. Update: 15 units.
Did some research and it's perhaps not the slam dunk I thought but I still really believe in it nonetheless: vs Albania: 2 shots; 1 blocked, 1 goal (89th min). vs Romania: 3 shots; 1 blocked,  1 off target, 1 goal (96th min). vs Switzerland (only played 28 mins) 3 shots; 1 blocked, 1 off target, 1 wood work (i.e. not on target). vs Ireland: 6 shots; 2 blocked, 2 off target, 2 saved. vs Iceland: 3 shots; 1 blocked, 1 saved, 1 goal. Total: 6 shots on target, 6 off target, 5 blocked (3 goals). Took 89 and 96 minutes for the same bet to win in the first two games, push in the third (player has to start), 8 minutes vs Ireland and 6 minutes vs Iceland.

[Angellike]

Portugal - Wales (spoiler, not the best result ever.)

O1.75 goals at 1.70 - win (+3.5u)

O3.5 goals - loss (-1u)

BTTS - loss (-2.5u)

Wales +0.5 - loss (-3u)

Bale: Shots off target: 1. Loss (-2u). Started so well with a missed shot in the 18th min but kept hitting the target, but not the net after that.

Ronaldo: Fouls suffered: 1. Loss (-1.5u). Should've had a penalty early, ref waved play on once early as well. 

Total for the game: 6 bets, -6.5u (note: UEFA might have picked up something I missed, but probably not.)

Total since first post: 7 bets, -9.5u.

[Angellike]

Sorry for a late update, been on a short vacation in Paris.

Made a mistake in the win/loss calculations; O1.75 goals at 1.70 for 5 units - half win/half push = +1.75u

Not a single French offside unfortunately, so Giroud -1,5u, Griezmann -1u.
However the 'bomb' 15 unit bet was successful. Quite early in the first half Payet got a freekick with he floated into Neuers arms. +6.75u.

Total since first post: 10 bets, 1 win, 1 half win/half push, 8 losses. -6u

[Angellike]

Not a ton of action in football or squash, my two main games. I think I've finally found a decent enough bet to post.

Swedish Allsvenskan (the highest league)

Actually there's two bets, I've placed both but they are similar so you might prefer to choose one.

Elfsborg vs Östersund

BTTS (both teams to score) at 1.64 - 2u

O2.5 goals at 1.65 - 3u

Elfsborg only has one gear; attack! 6 matches, 13-6 at home (3.16 goals per game (and rarely keep a clean sheet)), and in desperate need of points in order to try and get into the European spots.

Östersund 7 matches away, 7-14 (3 goals per game). They are a promoted side who have surprised many with their attacking and creative play (regardless of opposition and if they are at home or away).

Both squads are more or less complete, to me that probability of 3+ goals is 75% (i.e. anything over 1.5 is good) and BTTS ~70%.

Good luck if you choose to follow my recommendations!

[Angellike]

One words sums up the last bets: Finally!

1-0 36', 1-1 54', 2-1 63, (3-1 69')

BBTS - +1.28u
O2.5 goals - +1.95u

Grand total: 12 bets, 3 wins, 1 half win/push, 8 losses, -2.77u

Steadily working towards even, and may I dare say, perhaps a 'better of the month award' for my (imaginary) mantelpiece

[Angellike]

Deja vu? Nope, just the Swedish league second half of the season.

Swedish Allsvenskan (the highest league)

Östersund vs Elfsborg 

BTTS (both teams to score) at 1.51 - 5u

O2.75 goals at 1.81 - 3u

The return fixture, 3-1 to Elfsborg five days ago.
Östersund 20 goals (9-11) in 7 games at home - 2.86 average
Elfsborg 25 goals  (13-12) in 8 games away - 3.125 average

Basically the same teams, see my analysis in the previous post :)

AIK - Falkenberg

O3.0 goals at 1.78 - 5u

3-2, 2-1, 4-2, 4-3, 3-0. The five last games between these two sides.

AIK come from a EL qualifiying loss to Panathinaikos and have their captain out (who's a defender). Falkenberg are in 15/16 position with 8p after 15 games, an atrocious side who will most probably be relegated this season.

AIK at home: 9-6 in 7 games, 2.14 average
Falkenberg away: 4-17 in 7 games, 3.0 in average. As long as AIK maintain their goals scored per game (1.29) and Falkenberg their conceded per game (2.43) this bet will be EV+. Getting such a good price warrants a sizable bet.

Good luck!

[Angellike]

aaaaaaaaaaand they all busted.

Östersund - Elfsborg 0-0

AIK - Falkenberg 1-0 '1, 2-0 37', and that's obviosuly the end result.

Grand total: 15 bets, 3 wins, 1 half win/push, 11 losses, -15.77u (I don't think that will win me the monthly prize.)

However it's August tomorrow and the Premier League will be off and running. A word of caution to all bettors out there; friendlies don't give an accurate account of a team's coming performances - in most cases I'd advise holding off until you've gotten a clearer picture. 

[Angellike]

Olympic Women's football & Swedish Allsvenskan

Brazil - Sweden: Brazil -0.5 at 1.61 for 8u
Brazil - Sweden: Brazil -1.0 at 2.08 for 4u
Brazil - Sweden: Brazil -1.5 at 2.80 for 2u
Djurgården - IFK Göteborg: IFK Göteborg at 2.55 for 4u

Brazil will get a tremendous backing from the home fans, also they are used to the heat in a way the Swedes are not. They impressed immensely vs China and won 3-0. Sweden on the other hand got a scrappy 1-0 win vs South Africa and didn't look impressive at all. Also the Olympics adopt a similar group stage --> play offs ratio and since Sweden have a win a loss won't be as awful as it could be. Tidbit: Swedish (and most recently Icelandic hero) Lars Lagerbäck said that he hadn't seen a women's side look as impressive as Brazil did vs China. I think a more reasonable odds should be 1.30-1.35 and will be looking to fill up my bet live if Brazil have an inspired start.

Djurgården have five losses in a row and have fired their coach and found a replacement. Although a managerial change has proven to give a short term boost Djurgården are an awful side and can count their blessings that there are two sides even worse in the league. Göteborg on the other hand beat HJK Helsinki 0-2 away in the third round of the Europa League and need to win in order to keep the title race alive. In the last five meetings there have been two Göteborg wins and three draws. 2.55 is way to high.

Good luck everyone!

[Angellike]

Boom, 5-1 is a pretty comprehensive victory. It's nice to be able to share some wisdom from time to time :)

Brazil - Sweden: Brazil -0.5 at 1.61 for 8u = +4.88u
Brazil - Sweden: Brazil -1.0 at 2.08 for 4u = +4.32u
Brazil - Sweden: Brazil -1.5 at 2.80 for 2u = +3.60u
In total: +12.80u

We're off to a great start in August! 3 bets, 3 wins, +12.80u

[Angellike]

IFK Göteborg took the lead but preceeded top have their worst game of the season after have had the best one the game before. 3-1. -4u

4 bet, 3 wins, 1 loss, 18 units invested, +8.80u