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Tour de France 2016 - Preview and Betting Tips (Classification and Stage 1)


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Only one day left before the grand peloton of the Tour de France 2016 departs from this year’s start city Mont-Saint-Michel in the north-west of France. This post will highlight a few interesting tips for the overall classifications and the first stage. Feel free to comment!


Stage 1 Picks:

  • Winner: Marcel Kittel (2.00)
  • Value Bet: Edvald Boasson Hagen to beat Julian Alaphillippe (1.60)

Yellow: Nairo Quintana (2.75)

Green: Peter Sagan (1.50)

Polka Dot: Joaquim Rodriguez (12.00)

White Jersey: Warren Barguil (1.95)

Yellow Jersey – Overall Leader

The favourite list for the yellow jersey is made up of the usual suspects in top-3: Chris Froome (2.15), Nairo Quintana (2.75) and Alberto Contador (6.00). The next biggest favourite outside top-3 is Fabio Aru at odds 19.00, which is far behind the top-3 in my opinion. This year’s version TDF has 54.5 km. of time trial (mostly flat), which is more than in 2015 (41.8). This is a clear advantage for Froome, as he is currently the strongest at this discipline among the favourites. However, the odds also reflect this!

Personally, I have a good eye for Quintana. He has been working on his time trial skills the last couple of years, he has a strong team to support him on the mountain stages and he is HUNGRY! I think he will be able to beat Froome on the toughest mountain stages and take this year’s win:

Green Jersey – Sprint Point Leader

Will Peter Sagan (1.50) take his 5th straight win for the green jersey and bring himself closer to Erik Zabel’s record of six? Yes, most likely! Sagan is not the strongest on the complete flat sprints, where the rivalry between the two Germans Marcel Kittel (5.00) and Andre Greipel (7.00) is expected to take the stage. However, 4-5 of the “flat” stages this year ends with smaller climbs, which will shake off the heave sprinters. Sagan will score points on most sprint stages and is a clear favourite in 3-4 of the stages. Odds 1.50 is not high – but acceptable!

Polka Dot Jersey – Mountain Point Leader

This is always one of my favourite bets before the TDF and also one of the most unpredictable. Quintana (5.25) is favourite in front of Froome (7.00), Pierre Rolland (12.00) and Joaquim Rodriguez (12.00). My favourite is Rodriguez, which is not strong enough for overall classification, but will surely go for the polka dot. Another outsider is Louis Meintjes (81.00), but this is more of a long shot.

White Jersey – Overall Youth Leader (age under 26)

Warren Barguil (1.95) is clear favourite to win the white jersey this year, and if he avoids crashes he is also my top pick to win it.

Vive Le Tour!

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