€25 Tournament river bluff

[llrrss]

 

 Hi guys,

I’ll give you the result and my own analysis after but I can reveal that I’m bluffing the river here. No reads or experience with villain. Thoughts on this play?

 

 

 

[Brocky]

I can't think of a single value hand other than maybe KQ I would play this way with that stack. What are you trying to represent? The majority of your strong hands will be going in pre at 17bb, you have so few 4x and 2x in your range preflop (especially given A4 and A2 should be shoves pre). You have almost no 9x that floats the flop but also very few Qx. Pretty much all of the hands you would continue on that flop with (A9, AQ, KQ, 55+) should go in pre, the weaker 9x and Qx should be folded on the flop (or shoved as a bluff), neither straight nor flush draws get there so there's pretty much not a single value hand I give you credit for here and I would therefore be calling the river very light if I were villain.

[theMachine]

WHILE theMachine UNDERSTANDS REVEALING THE HANDS FULLY CAN RESULT IN BIASED RESPONSES, FURTHER DATA WOULD MAKE AN ASSESSMENT MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD.

ARE YOU IN THE BIG BLIND? IS OPPONENT THE BUTTON?

theMachine HAS LEARNED THAT SOME HANDS MAKE BETTER BLUFFS THAN OTHERS, CAN YOU REVEAL YOUR HOLDING? YOU MAY NOT HAVE A HAND THAT MAKES A GOOD BLUFF CANDIDATE.

AS PLAYED: DUE TO THE BET SIZING, OPPONENT HAS TO CALL 1700 TO WIN 5100 MEANING THE CALL ONLY NEEDS TO BE CORRECT MORE THAN 25% OF THE TIME TO BE PROFITABLE