Dara

I personally have no strong preference between 1 or 2 days (my Sunday sessions are long anyway) so I'm happy to go with majority on this one. This looks like a great addition to the schedule!

Good luck with this Iany. 13 is an unusual number: how did you arrive at it?

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@CuteRaven wrote:

Of course now there is more time to analyze these hands now than in real time, but I will attempt some analysis on the first hand.

Apparently Lappin can have 44 here (3 combos), but probably also the following hands in the potential river calling/raising range:

- 99 (3 combos), A9 (12 combos), K9 (12 combos), Q9s (of which you block 1 combo=2 combos), J9s (3 combos), T9s (of which you block 1 combo=1 combo), 98s (3 combos), 97s (3 combos), 65s (3 combos), 67s (3 combos), A6 (12 combos), K6s (3 combos) JT (4 combo), QT (3 combos), KT (4 combos), AT (4 combos), A4s (3 combos), 54s(3 combos), K4s(3 combos), pocket pairs JJ-AA (24 combos)

By hand category this is:

Tx or better: 22 combos

JJ-AA: 24 combos

9x: 36 combos

6x: 21 combos

4x: 9 combos

Maybe some hands would often raise pre (like AT, A9s, A4s, 99, JJ-AA), some might bet turn (e.g Tx and AA-JJ) and some might not cbet flop (e.g 6x). Removing some of the combos in these hand categories leaves:

Tx or better: 10 combos (removed 2 AT combos and then combos halved)

JJ-AA: 6 combos (combos halved twice)

9x: 30 combos (removed six A9 combos)

6x: 10 combos (combos roughly halved)

4x: 5 combos (removed a few combos of A4s and a few more incase 4x checks flop)

So we are left with 53 combos that you beat (including 2 combos of JT that are left), one or two QT that you chop with and about 6 or 7 combos that you lose to. This means that you beat/chop with about 85% of the potential continuing range when holding QT here. Would Lappin call all these hands against a moderate e.g 3/4 pot bet? Maybe not, but still a lot of hands to call with.

Of course this analysis is highly speculative (I may have made math errors too, I counted combos in my head), I don't know the dynamic or ranges or play styles here, but on the surface checking back QT seems like a strategic error even with extreme ICM pressure. I'm not implying anything about player intentions, could be an honest strategic mistake, I'm just pointing out that the logic from @Dara on the first hand does not seem to make a ton of sense objectively. At worst you probably beat 70-75% of the continuing range, and you are still pretty deepstacked by the river.

Edit: I'm not an ICM expert, so maybe there is a chance that you really need to beat about 75% range to bet??? IDK, I would be surprised though

 

 

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In game I estimated I'd need about 70% to get it in, and having just put it thru an ICM calculator now, it confirmed that's roughly the figure. That doesn't mean I need to be ahead 70% on the river: it means when I call a check raise all in I need to be that far ahead. Bet folding my hand is a disaster, and bet calling could be if Lappin constructs his range properly (if he's bluffing less than a third of the time), so I decided to just avoid the spot. Also bear in mind I'm 16 tabling at this point in my session, so I could very easily have got this wrong (I didn't have time to start counting combos) but having run a lot of postflop ICM sims in PIO recently I'm keenly aware how nitty you have to be in these spots.

Hand 1 is the money bubble. Lappin covers me so ICM is extreme for me: I need a considerable equity premium to get all in at any point as a result. My hand looks stronger than it is on the river (losing to better tens, all the houses etc). If I bet and he shoves I'm in a horrible spot since he's capable of both checking stronger hands to me in this spot (as he did in this case) and turning a worse hand into a bluff. Under normal circumstances, in position river value bets have to be ahead of a bit more than 50% of the calling range (not the overall range). With ICM they have to be ahead even more often, and I didn't think my hand was ahead often enough when he calls in this case considering ICM.

Hand 2: I had A8 with the ace of diamonds. Had he shoved at any point I'm obviously calling. When he does what he does, I might as well just call. It's minor but there's a non zero probability he has a better hand than mine but checks it down to the  (for example a better ace and we both miss) so I preserve the few extra chips. Additionally, there were still two tables so there's value in taking time to play out the hand rather than sticking it in pre. Only when the ace came and he checked was I convinced I had the best hand over half the time. Even though the number of chips is tiny relative to the pot, this rule still applies to my value bets. He said on the Unibet stream later he had "a bad queen". I won't call anything worse pre, so unless he makes a pair he has the worse hand 100% when I bet, so even though he's getting an astronomical price, his fold is correct.

Greetings machine!

Yes, you basically nailed it, since equities run so close in PLO there will be a lot more hands you will have the correct equity to get it in with when there's a bounty on the line in a PLO PKO. Also, since you want to be presented with such opportunities in the early to middle stages, it's even more imperative you gamble early on to acquite a gambling stack!

Thsnk you for your very kind words!

Hi guys,

 

Just to reiteraterate what Lappin said, I tend to use Twitter and Instagram (and to a lesser extent Facebook) to interact with players. Twitter is the central hub where I publicise everything I'm doing: playing, writing, blogging, podcasts, interviews, hand breakdowns (on ShareMyPair), my free strategy newsletter, the book, Ask Me Anythings like the ones I've done for LinkedIn and Cardschat, videos etc. etc. I avoid republicising them here as that seems a bit overly spammy and would just be a replica of my Twitter. As I said, for anyone interested, the easiest way to find out what I'm up to is Twitter and Instagram. I typically answer dozens of messages on both those platforms a day.

That said, I'm always happy to give my thoughts on any specific topics or questions that arise here, so if you spot one, just ping me a message on Instagram or Twitter with a link.

 

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