Eeezee

Hi Guys,

The link to my spreadsheet wasn't working properly.

Here's a slightly different link that should take you there: £50 - €15,000 Bankroll Challenge 

Eeezee

From £50 to €15,000!

Hey guys,

I go by the nickname Eeezee. I am in my forties and I have been playing poker for over twenty years. I have had some profitable stints over the years but I have never really approached the game with the discipline and structure necessary to rise through the ranks, so to speak. I originally joined Unibet to start a bankroll challenge but I got a little bit side-tracked by some of the casino games before I even really got started! Just recently, though, I have been reading through this forum and I have been inspired by some of the blogs here. One I particularly like is RaulonY’s 35€ to 1000€ Challenge. It got me to thinking that perhaps I should recommit to my own bankroll challenge and blog about my results. So, here goes.

My Objective

My objective is to turn the £50 I deposited this morning into €15,000. Clearly, this is no easy task and it will take time but I don’t really mind how long it takes to get there, I am a grinder!

My Approach to Bankroll Management

Like Raul, I will be beginning with an aggressive bankroll management strategy. I’ll be playing an aggressive short stack strategy and following this simple chart:

Table                     SS Buy In €                   Number of Buy Ins                   Total BR €

10NL                      5                              10                                           50          

20NL                      12.50                     20                                           250

50NL                      25                           30                                           750

100NL                    50                           40                                           2000

200NL                    100                         50                                           5000

400NL                    200                         75                                           15000

The reason I have structured it this way is mainly to account for the increasing skill levels as I move up the stakes. I’m confident I can beat 10NL with a relatively small bankroll, I’m not so confident I’ll be able to beat 400NL with such a small bankroll. Increasing the amount of Buy Ins as I move up the stakes also cushions me against the inevitable variance.

I won’t be taking any shots. I’ll be playing at each level until I reach the required bankroll for the next level as per the chart above. It doesn’t matter how long it takes. When I encounter the inevitable downswings, I will try to stay at the current level as long as possible but I will move down if necessary, particularly if I feel like I am being outplayed at any given level.

One thing I will be doing is playing a few tournaments to the value of one Buy In at whatever level I’m at whenever I have more than double my minimum Buy In for that level. So with €100+, for example, I’ll start playing occasional €5 tournaments to see if I can’t give my bankroll challenge a little boost here and there. I also still have a couple of freeroll tickets left which I’ll be playing soon.

The Basic Principles That I Will Follow

• Again, like Raul, I will never play sessions longer than two hours. Likewise, I will not play unless I can fit at least an hour of playtime in. Shorter session time availability adds pressure that can quickly turn to tilt.
• I will aim to play at least ten hours a week but I will have to fit this around my other work.
• I will stick religiously to the bankroll management outlined above.
• I will plug my leaks, mainly meaning I’ll try to manage tilt better and stay away from casino games.
• I will try to post a brief field report at the end of each day I grind and readers can view the spreadsheet of my results here: https://bit.ly/£50-€15000
• I will screenshot my balance in my field reports up to the first €2,000. After that it won’t make sense to do so any further because I will never retain more than €2,000 in my account. The rest of my bankroll will instead be stored in my bank account.

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@Brocky wrote:

The first part of your original post started well as it is true that an alogithm cannot be truly random, however, the rest of your post was just complete nonsense.  Many people have run up large wins from small amounts in roulette, it's not uncommon.  Either you're a genius that can predict the RNG in which case you're an idiot for not exploiting that on every casino you can for hundreds of thousands of pounds or you had a lucky streak, followed by an unlucky one in which you lost most of it back.  I know which one my money is on.

I would love to hear how you beat the algorithm because any time I've been into a bookies and someone starts talking about their theories on the FOBT machines they come across as completely deluded.

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Lol!

I really don't know where to start . . .

Firstly, I am not a genius who can predict rng and I don't claim to be. I actually agree with you that it could just have been a lucky winning streak though, as I have said, this is unlikely. The reason is simple, my wins were based on variable strings of numbers that I figured out the algorithm would favour if I bet in a certain way at certain times. Coincidence? Those in the know can easily check my betting patterns and see this is what I was doing. Those strings, however, changed after a couple of days and new more complex strings began to emerge. These were still somewhat predictable but reduced my strike rate significantly.

Secondly, not all rngs are created equal. The 'randomness' of any rng software is based on the quality of the programming and this can be specifically formulated to achieve certain results. A lot of online casinos, for example, deliberately soften the rng of their freeplay games in order to entice more people into depositing and playing real money games.

Thirdly, I do not believe that I, or anyone else, can work out the algorithm consistently enough to reverse the house's edge.

It was a winning streak of sorts, not the kind where I got lucky and picked a few random numbers to press but the kind where, for a short while I was able to latch on to entire strings of numbers that I knew would appear with a short amount of spins. If I could do that regularly, I would. Unfortunately, I do not believe it is possible.

I am actually a poker player and I'm going to start a new bankroll challenge, which I'll be blogging about over in the blogs threads. Please feel free to come join me over there but I won't be making any more posts on this subject. I've made my point.

Good luck all.

This is exactly why I don't generally like posting in forums like this, they tend to be full of ill-educated trolls!

Which part do you think is delusion?

My explanation of why rng is not truly random? My explanation is accurate. Go do some research, Google it, or ask Unibet themselves. How did you think random numbers were generated?

My winning streak? You obviously either doubt it even happened or you think that I just got lucky perhaps and am now deluding myself into believing that I worked out some sort of vulnerability in the rng?  Well, firstly, it did happen. I've still got some screenshots on my phone. I'm quite happy to post some of them. Secondly, if you think I might just have got lucky, perhaps that could be the case but I think it is highly unlikely. My strike rate, over several days, was much higher than expected. As I said earlier, it seemed to dive after the game mysteriously started taking much longer to load. It was more than just a lucky streak.

To be crystal clear, I am not suggesting myself or anyone else can beat the rng here at Unibet or anywhere else reliably enough to reverse the house's edge over the long term, even if you can work out parts of the algorithm as I seemed to. I won't be trying again. Nor do I recommend anyone else trying. However, to reiterate my main point, random is never really random with rngs, it just appears that way. 

Perhaps you are the one who is deluded!

Hi,

Thanks for the response.

Firstly, what is random? How do you define random?

There are varying definitions of random but, for most people, random means not being able to discern reliably predictable patterns.

So is rng random? Is the Unibet employee correct when he states ‘random is random’?

Definitely not.

The rng algorithm is simply a set of instructions. It begins with a so-called ‘seed’ number or value and then builds from there into a complex pattern that only appears random. If you knew the seed and the specific instructions of the algorithm you would, of course, be able to accurately predict the next sequences in the pattern. Hence, the rng is not truly random, it just appears random.

This is no conspiracy theory, it’s a scientific fact.

Generally speaking, this knowledge can’t help the average player because he or she has no way of discerning the seed number or the specific instructions of the algorithm. Such things are obviously closely guarded secrets, as Unibet employees have clearly stated. In other words, to all intents and purposes, the rng is random to the average player.

However, if you understand how rng works, you can sometimes turn it to your advantage. It is sometimes vulnerable.

Just in case you doubt this, last week I turned €10 into over a €1000 playing roulette here at Unibet. I’m not going to say exactly how I did it, and I subsequently lost most of it back, but the point is, it wasn’t just some random winning streak. I managed to ‘approximate’ the seed number and several of the key instructions of the algorithm in order to significantly increase my strike rate. I didn’t use any software or use any special tricks, I simply worked it out in my head, and on a bit of paper, then bet accordingly.

So how did I lose most of it back?

Well, I am quite sure that Unibet must have been wondering how I was doing it. The game started taking an unusually long time to load and after that the algorithm seemed slightly different, slightly harder. I couldn’t be bothered trying to work it out again, and I certainly didn’t want to waste any more money trying to, so I subsequently banned myself from roulette. I joined Unibet to play poker, not to try and beat the roulette rng, which may or may not be possible.

In summary, not all rngs are created equal, some are more vulnerable than others, some are more unforgiving than others, but as I hope my explanation makes clear, random is not always random!

Hi,

Just to say, I think your blog is really good quality like a lot of the blogs here.

What I like about yours in particular is how methodical your plan is and how open and honest you are with your results, even providing the link to the spreadsheet. Well done and keep up the good work!

Good luck buddy

lol!

'Random is random'

No, it's not actually.

The fact that the average player believes this doesn't surprise me.

The fact that a Unibet employee claims it, truly shocks me!