GR1ZZL3R

If a picture paints a thousand words...

GREAT EXPECTATIONS I was going to say it all started with Red Rum, one of the most famous names in British horse racing, but thinking back it actually started a few years earlier. My mum had a caravan, in reality a fixed almost bungalow sized static caravan, right on the edge of the duck pond, at an almost exotic sounding little place on the coast of East Yorkshire, called Sand-Le-Mere. Many happy family holidays were spent there, and exploring the small villages and smaller pubs were part of the adventures. I wasn't old enough to drink alcohol legally but there were many a blind eye turned, that was all part of the charm Apparently one of the local pubs had been built with the proceeds of a terrific gamble on the Grand National and named after the horse. Whether all that was part of the local tourist trade build up or some flight of fancy I don't know, but over an hour's online search has not confirmed my memories, (we didn't have Google back in those days.) However it was a nice story, despite not knowing what gambling or the Grand National were, that's stuck with me all these years. My introduction to the actual Grand National was in 1967, the year of Foinavon, quite an eventful race for my first foray into gambling. I'd backed Bob-A-Job, Leedsy and one more I simply can't remember, despite looking through the list of runners, and thought it was so unfair that mine didn't win, little realising how unfair gambling could be. Anyway it was a few years later before I picked my first winner, 1974 and Red Rum's second victory. It would be nice to say I backed him every time he won but it was not to be. Because he'd won for a second year and provided me with my first ever win on the horses (it was simply a once a year plunge) I had to back him again the next year going for the record but his second place wasn't quite good enough. I did however always bet each way, two bob at a time in old money, so it wasn't a disaster monetary wise however much it felt like it was. I abandoned Rummy the next year and wasn't on his side the one after where he of course won again for the record third time, what a horse. I've been reasonably lucky over the years in the National, many years picking horses because of a name or colour or even something else. Aldaniti in 1981, because he'd survived a career threatening injury and his jockey Bob Champion had survived cancer, if in doubt go for the most appealing back story. 😀 Corbiere two years later because I'd seen the trainer Jenny Pitman interviewed and knew she was attempting to be the first female trainer to win the race, always look for the best headline generating story. Since then I've moved on to less fanciful ways of picking winners, but there have been some great memories. Looking back purely at the winners over the years if I'd only backed that one horse each time I'd have made a decent profit, but some of those winners weren't my first choice. I always backed 3, all each way, sometimes more than two bob, 🤣 and although I haven't done the calculations, some I can't even remember the names, I'm sure I'm a loser overall. 🥲 It wasn't until 1987 that I branched out from the National and became a more regular punter, Reference Point in the Derby being the catalyst. I won on that race, my first ever bet on anything but the National. Top trainer, top jockey, top horse, favourite, gambling was easy wasn't it, but the great expectations of fame and fortune somehow never quite materialised. For what it's worth and for whatever reason I've picked them, these are the three I'm on today. 10 Mahler Mission 15.00 22 Adamantly Chosen 51.00 25 Limerick Lace 11.00 Good Luck whatever your fancy. 🍀🏇 Next time: "Just back the favourite"

Two reasons for a slight change of plans. The first was that I bought another ticket on Wednesday after completing the second, and despite all the warning signs, tiredness, lack of concentration, not really bothered about playing more, I proceeded to blast it of in a totally A1 Rec Whale manner and killed it pretty quickly. I could say I ran badly, I did, but that is a pretty poor excuse, I could have stopped at any time but the red mist and obstinacy took over. I've said it before but it bears repeating, I think my mental game is by far my biggest worry, so more steps need to be taken as a priority. The weekend off might help a bit, as other parts of the blog will come into focus. The second reason for a break was that my daughter has a pressure washer she thought I couldn't use because I have no outside tap, but a quick scan of Amazon (other suppliers are available) for the correct connector came up with an answer, only a fiver, as I have a washing machine plumbed in in the porch. Who knew that certain types of plastic are not frost resistant and, a bit like me, are prone to crack under pressure? Not quite finished yet but a good day's work. 2024-04-12 10-07-44.mp4 Mr and Mrs came visiting, I think the same ones from last year. Mr shot off before I could snap him but Mrs enjoyed some worms I'd uncovered. And if your grandson offers some advice based on his experiences, such as "You'll need some Wellies," then listen and take it. Tomorrow is Grand National day, so as promised, hopefully, "Great Expectations" will begin.

2024-04-12 09-52-02.mp4 As mentioned elsewhere Unibet is the only log in where the back space causes the last 2 characters to be scrubbed. Mac mini with Magic Keyboard. 09:53 UK time.

Second ticket finished. (I'm dismissing the first ticket but it's sad demise is included in the stats 🥲) This one was a touch disappointing after a good start, the dreaded downswing looked about to get into operation, who knows whether it will continue. Only €7.65 made over roughly the same time and number of hands, but at least I pulled back from the brink and profit is profit. 😬 Twelve winning periods in a row before a big stumble, doing nothing different but variance can be a b*tch when it grabs hold. Session fifteen was very short, a swift termination as soon as profit was hit, just to start the line back upwards. 🥴 The last 13 flops were seen in the early hours of this morning, not a time I usually play. Nearly 04:00 UK time but I was having one of those not getting back to sleep periods so decided to get up. There were only 12 on the €4 tables and some forbidding looking big stacks, but I managed to sit on 3 tables and begin. I'd only played for a few minutes and got no reads on all unfamiliar names, but after a pretty bad morning stint I pulled some good hands, two biggies in a row on the same table. 2024-04-10 05-14-06.mp4 At that stage I only need one more flop, provided by an AA deal and losing half a stack to a short stacker flopping a set of fours, so that was me done and time to quit. 😒 I haven't room for complaints really, I've had my share of run good recently, I'm just hoping for a bit more. As mentioned the morning shift was not very good but it did show a very rare situation. Someone was running far better than I usually do! I lost half a stack to a straight flush to a new short stacked arrival. Less than 10 minutes later the same player really cooled off someone else that had been running well, how quickly things can change. Ouch! That's me up to date for the time being, I'll start the third run today and tomorrow go back some distance into the mists of time and give some idea of how it all began. Great expectations. 🍻

But the point is that you've shown 3 hands where someone has got lucky in a very short space of time, and not 15 all ins with "trash" spread out over 90 hands, and then villain leaving with big profits. Did that actually happen, or as in many instances I've seen, villain gets lucky very quickly then leaves, or even settles down with a bigger stack to play "correct" poker. If you can show more over an extended period that would be more valid, as in many of these cases sample size can be hugely significant or totally meaningless. I suggest 3 hands in 5 minutes is the latter. I'm by no means knocking your suspicions but a lot more info would help.

Why would someone go all in 15 times in a row and win "only" 9 out of 15. iI he knew what was going to win the hand he would have only gone all in 9 times in those 15 hands. All in 15 times in a row suggests incompetence, drunkenness, couldn't care less attitude, or similar, unlikely to be anything sinister. 🤔

I saw the JJ hand yesterday morning ( I wasn't the villain) and guessed from the alias it might be you ( I won't reveal it here as you haven't ) but I don't think I played a hand against you. I was having just as bad a time on 2 other tables, (my first bad session) and it's times like this that are going to sort out the mentally strong from the weak ( my main problem in this game.) Remember what doesn't kill you makes you stronger so back today and carry on regardless. 🍀

You too can have a garden like mine. All it takes is a lack of desire, no forethought planning or work, and sheer laziness. BEFORE AFTER 2024-04-04 20-23-01.mp4 A lot of work to be done.

That's what I figured Yoda! 💯

So we find ourselves at DAY #5 already, it really doesn't seem 2 minutes since the start of this blog, but doesn't time fly when you're having fun? An update and a few stats. The first ticket was completed without too much drama but I did find myself having to rein in on a couple of occasions, something I've not done too well in the past, which has led to more heartache and self recrimination than I care to discuss. However... Cash in the bank 💵 is always nice, 2nd ticket starts tomorrow. Basically after the first moments of madness I've settled into what I feel most comfortable at, 3 tables with all the replayers stacked on top of each other, taking up all of one screen. I don't want to bore anyone with too many stats, I've only played a tiny amount so far and what there are are fairly irrelevant but I do want to pose the odd question here and there, so here goes. To be fair I don't always want to wade through figures and sometimes prefer a pictorial representation, so both together. But, as you may see from the graph, after a few sessions of 1 hour I started going into what I call "The Lockdown Mode." Session 6 I loaded three tables, won an all in very quickly, won another smaller stack almost immediately, decided things could only get worse and decided to skip out and "protect" my profits. Similar situations happened the next few sessions, ( I was running pretty hot 🥵 ) a couple later in the same day and some the next day. Now I know poker should be regarded as one long session, it makes no difference whether you play 10 sessions of 100 hands or one of 1,000 hands, but it's hard to shift from my mind that some players target you immediately if you've bad beaten them or even outplayed them. If they're raising every hand after, 3 betting you all the time, and generally being loose and aggressive I know I should stay and fight, possibly a good situation to make more money, but I don't want them to get lucky. It's the fight or flight kicking in but too often I've stayed and fought and left with my tail between my legs, 3 or 4 buy ins down when I've been 2 or 3 up. I also get too defensive if I'm ahead but determined to see out the hour of the time I've allowed, and also don't want to play very deep stacks, so end up running for cover or playing sub optimally. The big takeaway is that the more you play the more you see how a good mental approach can be so vital, I may be getting there but it's a long hard slow process. So that's it for the time being, I'm going to venture out into the garden now, not a pretty sight at the moment, and update that project next. Have Fun Coming next. Did it survive the move and winter or is it just sleeping?

Let's face it Hardgain, me and the rest face a pretty stiff task competing with an X factor style back story, adventures in Vegas Prague Montreal et al, and an Ayahuasca ceremony. It's already looking like a great read so I suggest Stubbe opens the competition to 4 finalist places and awards the winner right now.

I checked back for exactly the reasons stated.

Well, how often do you go into a new project with high hopes, enthusiasm, optimism, a keenness to get off to a good start? Yes, me too, but I made some horrible rookie mistakes and paid the price. I was dithering about still trying to decide how to approach this, I was hungry and annoyed to be running behind schedule, even after planning for the last couple of weeks, so knowing I was going to play at least an hour I dived in and bought one €4 cash ticket. Yeah, pretty dumb, no choice of table to pick and no topping up if getting off to a bad start. Which it did. Eleven minutes, 23 hands, only the second flop I'd seen and a very badly judged attempt at a bluff saw ticket #1 bite the dust. When will I ever learn? (There's a song in there somewhere, surely.) I calmed down and did what I should have from the start and bought a €20 ticket. Intending to play 3 tables, my comfort zone, I can open 5 tables (pressing the sit out button immediately on the first one) then take my time picking which 3 to play and discarding the other 2. Short stacks are better, seeing limping is better, seeing stacks not topped up is better, so many better choices. I can also stay topped up as the ticket gives me €8 spare to do so, also a much better choice I think. The second session, an hour, went much more sedately, no big hands, no dramas, no bad bluffs, and a couple of euros taken back. By that time I'd had enough for the day, went and made some tea and settled down for a chill. I will play, probably, 2 or 3 sessions a day but an hour at a time before a break seems sensible. The steadiness continued today and I had a good session, (I'm back in front) but I'm not going to update every day, that could get pretty boring, so the plan as it stands is to update after each ticket expires, by dying or seeing out its flops. How very dare you? 🤬 Thank you. 🙏 I used to study but these days, with it getting harder and harder and too much content to bother with I content myself with the thought that this is the Microverse. I may never beat it, I'm too old and set in my ways to be more than modestly ambitious, (€25 cash games look possible) and I do have a fairly busy life. Ten hours a day 10 tabling/and/or studying would not be my idea of fun, more like an absolute nightmare despite the amounts of money that could be won, so I'm quite happy to plod along. I'm not a fan of individual hand analysis, I get bored after 2 hours of hearing discussions of the 15 different ways it could be played and how the sims proceed, but much prefer general strategy (or tactical?) discussion. Having said all that, one hand did come up that I think poses both questions, the individual hand itself and the overall strategy. Villain had been limping most hands when suddenly the others left and one went to sleep leaving this the first hand of HU. I raised, he called, on the flop he bet his standard 1BB, I called. Then he bet 2.75BB on the turn, I "knew" he had a pair, which one I wasn't sure. Reckoning my K was good with a FD and OESD I raised, which he called. Of course with so many draws plus top pair I was never going to improve, was I? He checked, my immediate reaction was "not top pair!" Question: Should I bet for value thinking he has little to nothing, or is this turning my hand into a bluff. I haven't seen many showdowns from him but am convinced he would have bet anything decent, giving up leading with his small pair because of my raise. I'll be interested to hear any thoughts, especially why or why not? Thanks for reading (if you made it this far 🥂.)