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Bad variance


Eldred

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@Dr_Yevskij wrote:

Once I had posted the above, I start running so much better. Funny, isn't it? Btw, played a Falling Star and got all the way to hu with this chic who is passive 9/10, and then pops all in. So I work work her, and fold to the all ins until I pick up AK and she shoves TsQs and flops flush, had Ks but could not suck out, I never do, see. So, Iam down to 3k vs 107k, and all looks grim, but I in such good mood out of running normally so far in said tourney for the first time in weeks or so. And I'm like: "wtf, I can do this". And you know what, I did! Just by playing like a true poker god. Gosh, me so happy now, and Unibet is such a great place to be at! :0)


So because you posted in a thread being suspicious about a site rigging their RNG you believe that they clicked a button which instantly made you run good and then you wonder why people are trolling you?  

Seriously the most frustrating thing about reading bad beat threads or people complaining a site is rigged is their evidence consists of like one ❤️♥️❤️ hand.  Oh look I had a 80/20 and lost, it must be rigged against me.  Oh look I won a tournament after posting on a forum, they must have made it so I win.  Jesus christ, I don't mean to be rude but people are so clueless.  It's called variance, it's the reason why poker has bad players win and good players lose at times, otherwise we may all as well go and play chess which has no luck involved.

I'm currently on one of the worst downswing in my 11 years of playing poker over several million hands, probably lost around 10k in the last 3 weeks over thousands of SNGs, Hexapros and tournaments.  I literally cannot win at the moment.  I even had this on a Stars home game with some mates just to emphasise:

 

Stars.PNG.aa3fbe67bfa7a5f51bd4a1236b5b3726.PNG

Some of you would never play poker again by the sounds of it if you lost with quads.  It happens, it's super frustrating but it happens.  @MetalWolf lost AA vs KK vs AK for a 2k euro package the other night, do Unibet have it in for him as well?

I know I'm probably coming across like a ❤️♥️❤️ here but I'm in a horrible downswing and I have to read posts about people who lose 1 70/30 in a freeroll and think the whole of online poker is rigged or how you haven't hit the jackpot multiplier in 15 games of Hexapro.  Get a grip.

If you have 1.05m people flipping a coin 20 times predicting heads or tail, statistically speaking, one of these people will get it wrong all 20 times.  That seems mental, 20 times, but that is maths.  The human brain is terrible at comprehending variance, we always remember what happens against us and not for us but sometimes you need to take a step back and look at the factual side of things.

Rant over, sorry if I hurt any of your feelings.

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DianeAbott I do not think you are trolling me. But again, you too are also sort of misquoting me. I do not say that RNG is rigged, do I? I'm just pointing out that there would be the incentive. For example, plenty action-more rake. Right? I am just suggesting there is the incentive. Then about the running bad.

I am not referring to a few hands, am I? I am talking weeks here losing +70/100 being favourite. Including multiple 1-2-3-4 outers and runner runner suck outs. Over and over again. It is just impossible to get anywhere almost all the time. Do not tell me that you never over those weeks got this bad feeling?

Pls, don't attribute to me having said what I have not. I have played on line poker for 13 years and a lot too. Even if I am not a great player, I do understand the game. The worst thing about these horrific spells is it really has an effect on my game. Running so ridiculously bad for such a long period of time is something I just can't manage to just brush of. I'm human. Aren't you?

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My response was not just to you but to many posters I've seen on these forums, however, for someone that claims to have played online for 13 years your post about running good all of a sudden looked very much the opposite.

 

Of course I've had those feelings, I'm experiencing those feelings right now (just see my above post or my blog on here), but that doesn't mean I believe that Unibet has a switch over whether I run good or not. It would be beneficial for them for me to run good given the additional rake they would earn from me for a start.

 

With regards to the more action, more rake theory, what additional revenue as a percentage do you think they would gain from this? Is that number worth risking their whole business over if they're proven to be fixing their games? They're a multi-million pound business with poker making up just 2% of their revenue. If this "fix" added 20% to their revenue then that's less than 0.5% of their overall revenue, doesn't really seem worth it, does it?

 

Take a look around this forum, the majority of posts seem to be bad beats, how Hexapro is rigged, how casino games are rigged, bla bla bla. I don't know how the Unibet guys can sit there and respond politely day in day out to be honest.

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@Brocky wrote:

As I said, my response was to many posters not just yourself. I'll stop posting about it when they stop moaning it's rigged.


Moaning is a part of human nature, so a player who lose won't stop blaming something. The easiest way to say it's rigged, so you should make another criterion when you really want to stop posting about this theme and you do not enjoy being a part of this discussion.

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Now first don't have me wrong I'm no pro or expert but i have been around the block and playing for a while at Casinoes around the world and participating in some tournements and won a couple of pokerstars tourneys. But i wonder because the stuff I've seen here at the tables on the flop and rivers are so TEXAS and crazy that i cant take this poker site serious. It feels many times as a poker joke game with river turns from a poker dream of pure matemathic luck. So i have to ask. How likely or unlikely are this poker games to the real face2face reality?  

 

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Not close enough for sure when you see things that happen 1 in a billion too often.

To point out just ONE wierd thing that ive see on this site... i was at a friend one day of last summer and well he is a freeroller, he never deposit but he had won a 1 euro ticket and he registred in a 100 euro gtd singularity tourney that was about to start in a few minutes and i registred too at the same tourney from my phone. Tournament started, we were sitted at diffrent tables, we played for 1 hour and the 1st hand after the break we got delt same hand in the same order with the same suite. Now you can say that is not a big deal we also laugh at the coincidence. The only diffrent thing was the table position (i was bb or sb and he was mid position) BUT now you tell me what are the odds to have the same flop?same order? same suites? Come on :))

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In all seriousness I've just calculated the odds of being dealt the exact same two cards as someone else then seeing the exact same flop cards in the exact same order as just under 1 in 156 million. I guess we can rephrase what we see on Unibet as 6 in a billion.
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@BrockyI couldn't agree more with your comments. Variance and running bad are all part of the game. I think what a lot of players seem to forget is that you actually want to be called by players with hands that are statistically under dogs, it's how good players make money. IE exploiting weak players who shove with any old junk.

It's also amazing how those same players who bemoan their bad luck never complain when they hit a suckout or as is often the case win against those weaker hands.

My particular pet peeve is players who moan about having AA cracked when they have shoved all in pre flop and got called by some junk that sucks out. At the end of the day AA is ONLY a pair and if I'm right I believe that statistically JTs is actually a slight favourite because of the straight and flush possibilities so if you hold JT suited the correct play is to call any all in.

I'd also like to add that if the poker site is conspiring against a player it must be industry wide collusion because so far this month I've been experiencing bad beats across all sites I play on lol 

Do I get mad, in the moment yes and I have been know to smash the odd keyboard back in the day when I used to play for decent money lol The thing is I know that as long as I've played the hand correctly there is always a chance I am going to lose (unless I flop the nuts) so I tend to take it in my stride. If I've played badly then that is more of a concern as it shows a weakness in my game that I need to fix.

More annoying to me is when I'm replying to a post and playing at the same time and look up to see that I've just auto folded AK suited on the button with everyone folding before me 🤣:waterfall:

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Huge LOL...that's just insane!

 

For about 3 month ago and cross my heart it's the truth....I played a freeroll at night and i got a bad hand and just because I got the big blind i just checked and the cards was gold. This with the same hand and the same flops (just i different order) happend three days in a row. After this i always fold. It just feels like it's a unibet poker system and that it goes on i circles. I've seen some river turns that are just about 2% margin to happen and they just happen to many times to be normal. Unibet poker is like a pro on crack waving with his gun talking dirty but smiling.

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How likely is it that a chessgame plays out exactly the way it did in retrospect? Yet an extreme unlikelyness will play out on every single game. Every single person you see on the streets at just that time an place would've been extremely unlikely, and you can walk all day and see thousands of them.

Unlikely events happen all the time, whether you and the other person have the same suit and value or you have H10 D5 and he has C2 D7. But you don't remember the mundane only the outcomes that impacted you.

 

 

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@BeatYou When you've seen 33 shoved into AA one hundred times or more please report back with some more accurate winning/losing figures for us to consider. I am afraid NO ONE will take one hand seriously, not even the dedicated conspiracy theorists.:wonder:

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"It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%."     image.png.99a4e82708d54abfc527324e8836768e.png

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