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Bad variance


Eldred

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  • 5 months later...

 I play around 200-250 hu sng a week. The last two weeks  i lose a lot ! im like what the ❤️♥️❤️ is going on? its imposible . this is not variance . its just not posible.  its imposible to lose 70% of all ins .  i feel like the guys know when they win. they overbet all in on flop with worst and i lose against them all the time. it just doesnt make sense its imposible. today i played around 120 and i won like 45 . its imposible against this players. there s no bad variance on long term. u cannot lose 700 flips out of 1000. 

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you guys take some cards and shuffle heads . if u prove me u can lose 90 flips out of 100 i shoot myself. the site is rigged. its imposible . i played like 250 sng a week and i tell u ITS IS IMPOSIBLE its not ''variance'' its imposible. it makes no sense. its like an error at fifa. i start with 1000 i take them down to 500 and after i lose all in 3 or 4 times in a row. i can win almost only when the opponent calls me drawing dead. i played a lot of heads up during the years bu8t its is not posible. last 2 days i won 50 out of 130. its like the other guys know when they win. if u are a very good reg its imposible to lose like that for 2-3 weeks . playing 5 days a week. its bullHeartHeartsHeart 

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@Blessed wrote:

ill play another 1000 sng . if thi9s still goes on preflo all ins i quit online poker forever


@Blessed maybe record your session earlier because for me personally it is a cry of a frustrated man :/ Your entries do not reach me, especially their form.

"Small opportunities are often the beginning of great enterprises."
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No ❤️♥️❤️ Sherlock. Of course im frustrated. I looked into it and i saw statistics in hu based on more than million hands. Underpair vs overpair wins 46%. Weak A vs Big A 70%. And the list goes on... There s no such thing as variance on the long run.  Any profitable player knows that. 

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@Blessed wrote:

No ❤️♥️❤️ Sherlock. Of course im frustrated. I looked into it and i saw statistics in hu based on more than million hands. Underpair vs overpair wins 46%. Weak A vs Big A 70%. And the list goes on... There s no such thing as variance on the long run.  Any profitable player knows that. 


@Blessed I realize that you are frustrated, but the least you can do is speak properly and not call people "motherf's" and what not - consider this a small warning. 

As for the subject at hand, how long do you feel a run should be before you can say that there should be no variance? Secondly, how did you get a million hands from Unibet into a poker help program?

Secondly, sometimes it's good to take a break from poker and gain a bit of perspective from afar instead of staying in the middle of it where bad beats will increase the frustration to levels that should never be reached - I'm speaking from experience here :)

/Jeppe

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 Yes that's true. the guy was mockin' me and i overreacted. I apologize for my language. I was very frustrated. i play a lot of hands and i feel like something isn't right. i have some very suspicious hands played against some players. i already spoke with someone from chat, i have de email adress and i will send the players id and the hands . may be i am just paranoic but some hands just doesn't make sense

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@Blessed wrote:

it's a 1.2 million hands and its not from unibet its about online poker overall : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3tv-1rBJeY&t=4s  this is the link from where ive seen it.


So the hands aren't from Unibet and there's no documentation of it actually happening other than a guy saying it in a video. I can't comment on other sites, but in the past I've played about 5 million hands myself and statistics of the outcomes didn't end up like the ones for the guy in the video - for sure I won a hell of a lot more with AA than AQ :)

So what does that mean? Probably that no, 1 million doesn't equal forever and variance can happen even within a large sample like that, or perhaps the guy in the video isn't being truthful and is instead trying to get other people riled up about "the great poker scam" or whatever - I have no idea who he is and what his credentials are for talking about such a subject.

I've been in poker for so long and I've seen badbeats you wouldn't believe, one of the very worst and most unlikely ones happened on a hot summer day at the Wynn in Vegas - so nothing phases me anymore in this regard, all there is to do is get back to a balanced state and play your best game again :)

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