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Bad variance


Eldred

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Have had bad spells before but never had 3 days like the last 3. Lost every single All In and been favourite with more than most. Including...flopped a straight and villian flops a straight flush...flopped the wheel and the table retard ko’s me with 26 offsuit after calling a 3 bet....and about 4 times on AA or KK when they have had top pair and hit a flush or straight on the river. Am losing faith & patience fast, tempted just to sack it and take up knitting or something. Anyway back to praying to the poker gods

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How long have you been playing poker @Eldred because I can assure you 3 days bad run is nothing  in a sample size. Wait till you have a bad 3 weeks or 3 months and knitting will look very attractive. 🤣

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"It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%."     image.png.99a4e82708d54abfc527324e8836768e.png

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As I was posting my answer I faced a raise so I 3bet and was called. I bet the flop and he went all in, I called and what do you know? Felted.😠1650481481_Screenshot(1189).thumb.png.bd898a940ffa28f22c6f9b569e98043d.png

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"It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%."     image.png.99a4e82708d54abfc527324e8836768e.png

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Thanks guys. Been playing about 9 months properly, last bad run lasted 3 weeks or so. Posted cos I’ve never experienced such a period of crazy bad luck in such a short period. Previous I had the odd “lift” in between the variance but absolutely zilch this time. I know it’s insignificant overall and keep plugging away and trying not to tilt!

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Im sending some sympathy your way @Eldred , its great that you try to keep yourself from tilting. Just keep going and remember that one of the biggest things that differ succesfull players from the rest is how they deal with running bad. Sometimes it can last 3 days sometimes a year.. it sucks but in the meantime, just keep playing your game and if it hurts to much br wise, just move down for a bit - its always easier to deal with bad beats if it only crushes your soul and not your bankroll ♥️

GL! Hope it turns around soon !

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Left Stars recently. Had a bad feeling about the whole thing. Now playing at Unibet. Must say, it's like heaven. Never experienced a place with so many bad players. I have played 2 mtt's so far ,finished 2nd and 3rd, slaying the micro plo tables. Geez, dude if you are a half decent player, no bad varience could last very long at such a place. I've had a couple of ridiculous suck outs, but 2 out shovers just don't last.

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For instance, at the very lowest plolevel, just tonite something hilarious happened. This one dude shoves the flop after preflop pot 3bet. Another dude repops and I fold my overpar/K f-draw. What now? The shover has "undercards", and the one repopping has a downside gutter, no suits. I was lmfao, like: wow, is this for real???

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Just got knocked out of the 5 euro singularity 15 or so remaining. A loose dude miniraises utg and gets single 3bet  behind, I figure 3bet packs AK and choose to flat call  my QQ on button and see a flop. Flop comes 7 high and Bosman42 donks all in utg. Preflop 3bet folds and I'm pretty sure I dominate Bosman big time since he did not 4 bet. Sure he might have hit a set, but a set he will surely check to initial 3 better!? So donkey has 88 and catches runner runner for str8. Yeah, I hear you now, Eldred...

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  • 4 weeks later...

I have an opinion but might be judged for it ... so reserve judgement ...

Unibet like all other platforms is only a business ... and businesses only grow with new players joining and depositing ... 

Obviously there are pro players on all platforms and game for game new players will not be depositing if only the more experienced players win the tournaments and gather all the cash. If for instance the newby is allowed to crack the more experienced players cards with total underdog cards it might encourage him to make those extra deposits ... It boggles my mind that it is always "donk" player hitting the nuts and cracking a total superior hand when the "unofficial" standard play dictates that those hands must be folded. Really? ... calling or shoving a 3 or 4 bet with an All in? ... with a 7 5 or J 4? ... and somewhere inbetween the flop and river he hits the nuts ...

But if he plays like that and he does beat you ... He might make another deposit next time he loses with that play ... Unfortunately he already ruined your 3 hour grind and bust you just before the bubble ... 

Please understand that I am generalising over different platforms and do NOT implicate Unibet in specifically ... These software was written and developed for businesses to make money and somewhere in the code it says: "The best players must not always win" 

This opinion is based on personal experience over the run of about 10 years of online playing with some of the "top"??? rated platforms out there. I am only a recreational player and definately not a pro ... 

 

 

Veni, Vidi .... Amavi
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I think the problem is people don't understand variance.  I doubt even 0.01% of the poker playing population truly understand variance.  I certainly don't understand it, but what I do understand is that people generally only remember the negative variance.  I'm fairly sure 90% of poker players expect the best hand to hold 100% of the time which is ridiculous.  Your AA is going to lose to 72 12.5% of the time, your KK is going to lose to AKs 33.6% of the time.  That's more than 1 in 3 times.  If you play enough hands, variance will even itself out to some extent.  You will always people who run above EV and people who run below, the poker sites don't have any say on this, their RNG's don't sit there and look at how much a player deposits or how long they've been playing.  

If you go on Youtube you'll see 100+ videos of ridiculous beats in live poker but people only ever attribute bad beats to online because that's the narrative they want to believe.  I hit a one outer on the turn at Unibet Open Dublin, did the dealer rig that for me?

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@Brocky wrote:

I think the problem is people don't understand variance.  I doubt even 0.01% of the poker playing population truly understand variance.  I certainly don't understand it, but what I do understand is that people generally only remember the negative variance.  I'm fairly sure 90% of poker players expect the best hand to hold 100% of the time which is ridiculous.  Your AA is going to lose to 72 12.5% of the time, your KK is going to lose to AKs 33.6% of the time.  That's more than 1 in 3 times.  If you play enough hands, variance will even itself out to some extent.  You will always people who run above EV and people who run below, the poker sites don't have any say on this, their RNG's don't sit there and look at how much a player deposits or how long they've been playing.  

If you go on Youtube you'll see 100+ videos of ridiculous beats in live poker but people only ever attribute bad beats to online because that's the narrative they want to believe.  I hit a one outer on the turn at Unibet Open Dublin, did the dealer rig that for me?


This!

+1

I don’t understand the variance either but have accepted that fact.

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It is certainly true that most people tend to focus only when they are 1 or 2 outed and don't remember the times they do it back. I believe I don't focus on my giving bad beats because I just don't find myself in that situation too often. When I have a draw, generally open ended straight or flush, I try to look at the odds on offer and more often than not will fold if I'm not getting the correct or implied odds, would never dream of calling a shove with J4 or 93, therefore statistically I give far fewer bad beats than I get. We say it time and time again, how you played the hand is so much more important than the result, although it never feels like it at the time. If you could look back over all the hands you've played you might be surprised how often you do win with AA or KK, it's just the recent losses tend to linger longer in the memory, especially if it's at a crucial time. 🤣

 

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"It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%."     image.png.99a4e82708d54abfc527324e8836768e.png

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@Brocky ... Agreed ... Like I said ... Only an opinion.

Those stats remain if all hands play all hands every hand ... How do they call with that specific hand at that specific time and hit the boat or set?

I was playing a hand 1/2 hour ago ... 

Villain flat calls UTG ... action folds to me in small Blind with AQ ... I raise 4 BB and he ships full stack which I have easily covered ... he has J 9 ... And he flops a SET on a hand I could not improve ... 

J 9 for Tournment life?

If this happens once ... no problem ... but how many times a day???

That why I have my opinion and personally if someone can explain why the one hand out of the 5 others ships and kills your hand ... I might change my opinion ...

I am not looking to challenge you guys ... you have much more experience than I do ... and if this post offends anyone please remove it ...

1948748226_BB2018-12-31.thumb.png.b3ea8f627bbc930cfd186cd68a229e02.png

Veni, Vidi .... Amavi
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People play all sorts of different hands for all sorts of different reasons. Cards they have a preference for, they're drunk, not concentrating, they're a terrible player, they're playing lower limits than they usually do and are just having a bit of fun, they suddenly need to leave. Many reasons. All you can do is concentrate on doing the right things as much and as often as you can. 

I'd say the villain here likes suited gappers and thought they might either shove you off the hand or get lucky with the flop. Unfortunately it was the latter. 😞

 

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@DoktorAvalanche 

@Brocky

Long and hard thinking ... I will leave the decision of variance to playing the board ... Maybe expanding my range(admittedly I do play a tad conservative @ times) although I still find hard to be donked ... and the decision for whatever reason calling with those cards ...

Here is an example of me accepting variance(and I have never done this but was not willing to sacrifice position to a coinflip) 1781164176_QQ2018-12-31.thumb.png.46867e9b56b62133bf1113264145612d.png... :Smile:

 

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Veni, Vidi .... Amavi
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Today has been one of those days that make you wonder. It's when really poor, or even idiotic, at times mystifying, play is rewarded that it hurts the most. I find it useful to imagine just how much of a ******* ****** the villain was.

Twice today I can't even work out what they thought they were chasing.

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