The Chip Race Knows. Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Fold AK on the bubble.

[debaser_XIII]

Two things to say up front. First, all I'm trying to do here is make it to a Unibet Open or main event at a UK Tour stop. I'm not EVEN a recreational player. I'm an experiential player. Second, I listen to The Chip Race, the excellent and Unibet-sponsored podcast. 

So a frequent background theme on the podcast is satellite strategy. It crops up often, but usually as an aside in a broader conversation. I think Dara, one of the hosts, is a big brain on satellite theory, right? And he often moves on to talking about late stages, when he tells us almost any hand is unplayable - your objective is to survive and claim a ticket, not grow your stack. 

Interesting. I like theory. I wonder if I could execute that in a tight spot myself? 

So, last night. I have levelled up from low stakes to a £25 ticket and I'm playing the Two Tix £100 UK Tour tournament. And god damn, I'm playing well. I've avoided some death traps, got some value where I would usually have timidly checked down and I am running good, too. 

Also, I've got The Defiant Ones running on Netflix and it's awesome, inspirational stuff. I am being driven to glory by Dr Dre and Bruce Springsteen, and it feels good. 

Then we're down to three. Remember kids, this is the Two Tix £100 UK Tour tournament. We're on the for-real bubble (although there is a consolation prize of £7 for third.) I am one of two stacks on 6k. Big Stack is 15k. Blinds are 150-300. 

I'm feeling good because Big Stack min-raised and I folded AQ-suited in the small blind. Chip Race, baby. I mean, now, the morning after, I obviously should have taken a flop and seen where I was because then things could have worked out great and I wouldn't have to write this for therapy. But at the time I LOVED that fold. 

Then on the button I get AK off. I'm marginally in front of the other small stack and every orbit counts. The other small stack is folding more often than either of us other two. There have been a ton of all-ins though, and no calls. I think about it all for a bit. What would Dara do? And I KNOW the right answer. RIght now the pressure is on the other short stack. And even if they get in front of me, I will have time to get it back. I KNOW it's a fold. But I've been playing poker for 20 years and I'M NOT READY TO FOLD AK YET! 

I slide the thing up to all-in and hit bet. 

Shorty folds. Folds while jumping up and down chanting 'Call! Call! Call!' 

Big Stack pauses, and calls with AJ. And you know the rest, right? 

Jack on the flop. No help. And friends, I am here to tell you that... 

I AM READY TO FOLD AK NOW. 

Are you?

[GR1ZZL3R]

Hi @debaser_XIII, just found this thread and decided you're my kind of player. Depending on the situation I'll happily fold AKo. It absolutely amazes me some of the plays you see from big stacks, and little, when we're approaching the bubble for multiple payouts, big stacks getting aggro against each other when they could quite easily fold to victory, short stacks frozen into immobility, untill they have absolutely no fold equity whatsoever, and me there doing the "call, call, call" dance. I did your trick about a year ago with AA, same result, and swore "Nevermore". Go with the flow and maybe we'll be sat opposite each other sometime, daring the other to "Just try it again sunshine" Cheers.😃

[debaser_XIII]

Thanks @GR1ZZL3R - it's taken a long time, but I'm there! And since I posted I've been much more aware of what everyone is doing in the endgame of these sats. 

Thanks for the reply. See you at the tables. 

[FeelsBadMan]

@debaser_XIII Dara has a free strat newsletter if you're interested https://twitter.com/daraokearney/status/951160109094330368

[debaser_XIII]

Done! Thanks @FeelsBadMan - really appreciate the steer.