Never give up!

[WuDu]

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@psrquack wrote:

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@WuDu wrote:

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Yeah, it was all about luck! Winning usually helps if you want to build up a bankroll...

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Sorry, but it was all about luck. You must finish ITM or win a ticket within your first 4 try or you bust. That's against BR management/long term concept/diligent play. That's gamble, and you need luck to find yourself on the sunny side.

To other: I don't know why you have bigger balls grinding €1 buyin tourneys with €20-€30 pp or playing one that have €100- €250 in pp, but I'm sure you have good arguments to clear it.

---

 

This has nothing to do with balls, however you either play for cash or for the experience! I simply don't see the point in playing against 100(0)s of crazies that want to yolo it up with 83o because it doesn't matter at all whether they win or lose. If that makes you happy, all the power to you...

@GR1ZZL3Rmade a smart decision by depositing a smaller sum and then working himself up through the qualifiers.

[psrquack]

Sorry @Merenitsu spamming your topic, but I have to ask 2 questions towards @WuDu .

1, How many tickets do you currently have from your 25*€50 peak?

2, How many packages did you make from those tickets?

Thanks for your answer.

[Merenitsu]

@psrquack  dont worry about this 😃  I'm on your side in this matter. I will always choose real money than anything else

[Merenitsu]

@psrquack 

I had more than 700 euros in tickets. I used to choose tickets too. I played 5-10 tournaments a day, first 2-10 euros, then 10-50.

 

[WuDu]

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@psrquack wrote:

Sorry @Merenitsu spamming your topic, but I have to ask 2 questions towards @WuDu .

1, How many tickets do you currently have from your 25*€50 peak?

2, How many packages did you make from those tickets?

Thanks for your answer.

---

 

Right now I have 2*250 and a few 10s from that old stack. I had to play the last two 250s and use up two of my tickets there. 0lucky in those UO250s so far! Why are you asking?

[Livertool]

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@WuDu wrote:

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crazies that want to yolo it up with 83o because it doesn't matter at all whether they win or lose.

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And you don't see that in uos, especially in smaller ones? Curse and blessing of low stake poker 😏

[psrquack]

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@WuDu wrote:

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---

 

Right now I have 2*250 and a few 10s from that old stack. I had to play the last two 250s and use up two of my tickets there. 0lucky in those UO250s so far! Why are you asking?

---

As I remember you are familiar to economy and also good in numbers. I'm pretty sure you know the basics of the Financial crisis in 2007-2008 and you watched the movie The Big Short. You can remember how many people invested their cash to estates or just to the second mortgage market. I asked that because I see similarity with investing UO tickets and was curious if your investation is real thing(means you can collect the fruits right now) or just a promise, that somewhere over the rainbow everything will be bright and shiny.

You have had €1250 in UO tickets(25*50). You grind a lot and now the value is-let's be generous-€600 (2*€250+10*10). Half of the value has gone and you have to convert those tickets (the 2*€250) to package or it wasn't worth to grind. You have very moderate chance for it, because every 10th attempt grants you a ticket in the long term( depends on the number of participants and presumes players have equal skills) and your ticket balance don't cover the variance. You can say you made it from a single €4 ticket and earned a lot of stuff (bonus points+another tickets via challenge system), but please check Merenitsu's chart and consider your own words: "But every grown man that's a poker veteran should take a loooooong look in the mirror, if he's playing these nano games. Also, MTTs have much higher variance than the UO1s..."

[WuDu]

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@psrquack wrote:

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@WuDu wrote:

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---

 

Right now I have 2*250 and a few 10s from that old stack. I had to play the last two 250s and use up two of my tickets there. 0lucky in those UO250s so far! Why are you asking?

---

As I remember you are familiar to economy and also good in numbers. I'm pretty sure you know the basics of the Financial crisis in 2007-2008 and you watched the movie The Big Short. You can remember how many people invested their cash to estates or just to the second mortgage market. I asked that because I see similarity with investing UO tickets and was curious if your investation is real thing(means you can collect the fruits right now) or just a promise, that somewhere over the rainbow everything will be bright and shiny.

You have had €1250 in UO tickets(25*50). You grind a lot and now the value is-let's be generous-€600 (2*€250+10*10). Half of the value has gone and you have to convert those tickets (the 2*€250) to package or it wasn't worth to grind. You have very moderate chance for it, because every 10th attempt grants you a ticket in the long term( depends on the number of participants and presumes players have equal skills) and your ticket balance don't cover the variance. You can say you made it from a single €4 ticket and earned a lot of stuff (bonus points+another tickets via challenge system), but please check Merenitsu's chart and consider your own words: "But every grown man that's a poker veteran should take a loooooong look in the mirror, if he's playing these nano games. Also, MTTs have much higher variance than the UO1s..."

---

 

You wrote a lot, however you're making one monumental mistake :laugh: :

The only reason I'm playing the UO250s right now is because Unibet changed their terms regarding the exchange of tickets.That's something you couldn't plan for in 2016. If not for these changes regarding the exchangers, I'd still play the UO50s right now to increase my bankroll.

For your info, in order to have a 50-50 chance at qualifying for a live event, you need 6 UO250s in your bank account. With 4 tickets, my chances were 38 %. Like I mentioned before, qualifying for a live event is simply a matter of the amount of UO250 tickets a player can come up with.

Also, I wasn't grinding these games, my main games are SNGs. Believe it or not, I was playing the UO50s for fun! Whenever I wanted to play one to make dinner more interesting e.g. or to switch things up a little, I played a UO50, getting some benefits along the way. I mean, every UO50 gets you 500 challenge points. Not bad for a 0 Euro investment, don't you think?

Also with all due respect to @Merenitsu, the last thing I read here was "0lucky" and "I'm closing this blog" and him playing a bunch of freerolls for 100 days. To me, that doesn't sound like his strategy built anything up at all...

[Merenitsu]

@WuDu  my strategy she created over 400 euros from 0 😃

but I closed it because every time I post, I again remember these other blows and my anger grows.

[psrquack]

---

@WuDu wrote:

---

You wrote a lot, however you're making one monumental mistake :laugh: :

The only reason I'm playing the UO250s right now is because Unibet changed their terms regarding the exchange of tickets.That's something you couldn't plan for in 2016. If not for these changes regarding the exchangers, I'd still play the UO50s right now to increase my bankroll.

For your info, in order to have a 50-50 chance at qualifying for a live event, you need 6 UO250s in your bank account. With 4 tickets, my chances were 38 %. Like I mentioned before, qualifying for a live event is simply a matter of the amount of UO250 tickets a player can come up with.

Also, I wasn't grinding these games, my main games are SNGs. Believe it or not, I was playing the UO50s for fun! Whenever I wanted to play one to make dinner more interesting e.g. or to switch things up a little, I played a UO50, getting some benefits along the way. I mean, every UO50 gets you 500 challenge points. Not bad for a 0 Euro investment, don't you think?

Also with all due respect to @Merenitsu, the last thing I read here was "0lucky" and "I'm closing this blog" and him playing a bunch of freerolls for 100 days. To me, that doesn't sound like his strategy built anything up at all...

---

Unfortunately there are too many things in this thread what I can't accept. About your chance to Live event: the last Paris qualifier granted 5 packages and the number of participants was 51. I think we can agree you are going for the package not for the reroll so your 1 from 6 proportion doesn't seem good so the 38% chance also shouldn't be correct.

I accept you are playing the €50's for fun to spice up dinner and co. and would play them as neverending story if Unibet wouldn't make changes in the qualifying system but i wonder why you judged people in your previous posts who want to make money from it asap and planning their bankroll builder mission making come true via other route. On the other hand your stragety also makes me a question how could you increase your real bankroll, not your virtual one (the value of tickets). It seems the current system is the dead end for your environment, because you have lost all your €50 tickets (as you previously mentioned you have only €10 and €250, the second one isn't convertable), so I counted what benefits you have earned from the play (I don't know why you refuse using the word grind when you play regularly on the same level, but it's your choice). Lets assume you played 50*the €50 ticket+ you have or had 4*250, what grants you 35K challenge points. That's €15+€5,xx (aka 1100 BP)+€2(€6cash ticket)+possible wins from tickets. So you could earn €22-€23 when you run bad and will lost all of your added tickets. I was generous and presumed you have accumulated the points in one quarter. So you raked €350- to make a round off to €25- for less than 10% rakeback.

I don't see the big deal behind those numbers comparing to nano grinders in where you can also win €25 within 3  months period and your bankroll is still flexible to jump into other promotions than poker.

Merenitsu posted a chart before you posted today. It's worth checking it. He had €700 in tickets and converted to €1.40 real money.

 

[GR1ZZL3R]

Now this has become an even more interesting thread, because I've sort of suspected I could make money from grinding these tickets up, although not the whole reason for playing them,  and now we're getting to the pros and cons. I'm not a mathematician but my take on it goes something like this.

The €1 UK qualifiers pay 3 x €5 tickets, with an extra ticket for every 5 players over 15 (not strictly true due to rake, but near enough for rough calculations) therefore I have a 1 in 5 chance of  a ticket, again not strictly true as if there are only 9-10 players I'm getting a 1 in 3 shot to win 5X my buy in.

The €5 UK pay 3 x €50 tickets and usually attract about the right number for the odds, about 1 in 10. I'm going to ignore rebuys and add ons for the time being as these alter the true odds and I just want a baseline figure for now.

The €50 UK pay 3 x €500 packages, including €250 expenses, again attracting about 30 players and giving a 1 in 10 chance, ignoring rebuys. 

Taking these rough figures as a guide, 1/5 x 1/10 x 1/10 gives a 1 in 500 chance of winning a package, pretty much as expected and far from the wild guesses I have seen elsewhere. I've also seen suggested a much more realistic figure of a player starting from scratch needing €3,000 but I think that was for the UO and would like to know why so high. These figures may reflect the odds of actually winning a package but in no way reflect the br needed, as the beauty of the exchangers mean churning over the initial outlay without increasing it is very possible, (€40 to over €300 with small amounts of play.)  My bankroll (tickets) is steadily growing, my challenge points are steadily growing, as are my bonus points, which can of course be used to diversify, cash mtt's sng's etc. I know the ticket pile can't immediately be turned into cash, but it is a long steady process and an alternative way at building a br, not suitable for everyone but I'm sticking with it for the forseeable future.

[Merenitsu]

I forgot to say that this table was not final. I earned 2 tickets for 250 euros and then the unibet canceled the exchange. I had to play a game. I lost them all.
Suppose I won a package. Not the fact that without experience in live tournaments I will win something for the first time. This is foolishly hoped.
Therefore, you can hope for something, but the unibet will simply change the rules of the game.

[psrquack]

@GR1ZZL3R: Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

My problem is not seeing any real cash at the end of the qualifiers. You also wrote this is a long term plan but when I ask for numbers bet ticket values as answer not something what is independent from Unibet. I must agree to Merenitsu, even if you win a ticket you will have very moderate chance finishing ITM at online tourney, so you can make some money if you reduce your travel expenses and keep something from the travel money, which is -when we are talking about the UK tour- could be €100 (you got 250 and will spend 150 for travel+someting in the venue etc). So guys are you sure is it worh grinding months for €100+€25 (see my preivous post)+lifetime experience?

The second thing I doubt is the possibility of win the package from 500 tries. I agree maths says 500 (I'm not an expert aswell), but you should consider the difference of skills of the participants (it can happen you are better than the majority of €1 and €5 grinders, but worse than final round players) and the think you are playing so wide range of games (from €1 buyin to €50) that you are "forced" to run better on higher levels than on lower. That means if you are playing €1 and €5 qualifiers simultanously and you have aces and go allin preflop against one player teorethically you have approximately 80% to win a hand. But if you win only one of those hands that should be the higher tourney, because that could cover the loss of the €1 qualifier and grant you a profit (you could exchange the €50 ticket to 50*€1,-not in once, because 20/same level is the limit otherwise you couldn't use the exchangers), but winning the low one and turning them to €5 ticket means a loss for you (your buyin was 6-€1+€5-but your final result is €5 only). I'm sure that's the reason why 500 try isn't enough in the real world.

Maybe it's clear to others, but that from 40 to 300 is cash and can be withdrawn without any further wagering restriction? If you then I should reconsider my point of view.

[FreedoM]

My opinion on freerolls/qualifiers:

- Freerolls: meh, the normal ones are not worth it.

Maybe the PLO, Jackpot and Bankroll Boost are still worth it. (won the bankrollbooster 2 weeks in a row) :happyshy:

- Unibet Open: Under €10 Qualifiers are Hard AF even if you know what to do, you still have to battle with people that just don't give AF.

- Unibet Open:  €10 Qualifiers and Over are decent, the field isn't as big and you have a chance.

- UK Tour:  3 Step Qualifiers €1 still the regular crazy people, still worth it to play, €5 late in the last minute #rebuy you will be in the top 4-5 stacks + addon i'd say you will get lots of €50 tickets.

To be honest the fastest path to a starting bankroll with a minimum investment of €5 = 25x €0.20 is the UK Tour.

The travel money will get you rolled for €4NL / €0-€1 MTTs / €2 SNGs and from here if you keep away from the casino/bingo/sportsbetting you should be fine.

For myself it usually takes a month or under until i get there and I go broke by losing myself in "casino/bingo/sportsbetting" at least once a quarter. :annoyed:

[Merenitsu]

@FreedoM  I used to have a problem with the casino. I could lose a lot at a time, but after the limits everything is fine

[FreedoM]

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@Merenitsu wrote:

@FreedoM  I used to have a problem with the casino. I could lose a lot at a time, but after the limits everything is fine

---

Great to hear man, i kinda hit my end of the road, i took some time off after i went busto and did some soul searching / reflecting and yeah, i'm to tired and old to keep doing this BS, so basically now i'm in the process of building it up and if i funk it up again, it's time for a long vacation. :happyshy:

[GR1ZZL3R]

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@psrquack wrote:

@GR1ZZL3R: Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Thankyou for your and @WuDu kind comments.

My problem is not seeing any real cash at the end of the qualifiers. You also wrote this is a long term plan but when I ask for numbers bet ticket values as answer not something what is independent from Unibet. I must agree to Merenitsu, even if you win a ticket you will have very moderate chance finishing ITM at online tourney, so you can make some money if you reduce your travel expenses and keep something from the travel money, which is -when we are talking about the UK tour- could be €100 (you got 250 and will spend 150 for travel+someting in the venue etc). So guys are you sure is it worh grinding months for €100+€25 (see my preivous post)+lifetime experience? 

I think you and @Merenitsu are looking at this from a totally different viewpoint than me. I'm in no way suggesting that this is the optimum way of building up a bankroll, it is one way that I have chosen, not neccessarily to make money but a slow steady climb that could result in the byproduct of cash returns over a lengthy period of time. The first and foremost reason I'm doing it is to make more live tournament appearances, where and when possible. I loved the Dublin experience even knowing I had little or no chance of cashing or running deep, but you never know, that insane heater could be just around the corner. Manchester is 40 or so minutes away so I could travel there and back daily and keep most of the expenses as "profit" but again that's not the point, I could chose not to attend and clear €250 profit.

The second thing I doubt is the possibility of win the package from 500 tries. I agree maths says 500 (I'm not an expert aswell), but you should consider the difference of skills of the participants (it can happen you are better than the majority of €1 and €5 grinders, but worse than final round players) and the think you are playing so wide range of games (from €1 buyin to €50) that you are "forced" to run better on higher levels than on lower. That means if you are playing €1 and €5 qualifiers simultanously and you have aces and go allin preflop against one player teorethically you have approximately 80% to win a hand. But if you win only one of those hands that should be the higher tourney, because that could cover the loss of the €1 qualifier and grant you a profit (you could exchange the €50 ticket to 50*€1,-not in once, because 20/same level is the limit otherwise you couldn't use the exchangers), but winning the low one and turning them to €5 ticket means a loss for you (your buyin was 6-€1+€5-but your final result is €5 only). I'm sure that's the reason why 500 try isn't enough in the real world.

I won't argue with the figures over the number of games needed as they are just my own top of my head numbers, and would love to know some more soundly based ideas. I've said before that the tickets shouldn't really be viewed in monetary values, better as R1, R2, R3 etc, then you're not worrying about losing 5 x €5, you've only lost 5 x R2 tickets, a small blip on the long road. You get AA twice and lose one, it shouldn't matter which, it's just one less ticket to play in that round. I'm guilty of totalling the value of the tickets, when in reality they are only a pass to play a game. If you win some R1 tickets and then play in R2, why should you think you've less chance. Yes you're probably playing mostly winners from R1, but you've won your ticket exactly the same way they've won theirs, hopefully by making better decisions than others and fewer mistakes. You don't have to run better, just play better, and isn't the whole point of playing trying to improve? Don't be scared because it's a €5 rather than a €1, the standard may be a little higher but not hugely so, you'll win fewer simply because the ratio of payouts to players is smaller, 1/10 rather than 1/5.

Maybe it's clear to others, but that from 40 to 300 is cash and can be withdrawn without any further wagering restriction? If you then I should reconsider my point of view.

No. I can't withdraw any of that €300, but all the time the bonus points will be building up, and they can be used for playing other games. I'm not pushing my way of building, just explaining, it really won't suit the majority of players, so why not try it alongside your main game. If an old plodder like me can do it (I've not actually made any cash yet, but that will come) I'm sure some of you younger ones will do it far more easily.

Final thought!

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[WuDu]

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@psrquack wrote:

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Unfortunately there are too many things in this thread what I can't accept. About your chance to Live event: the last Paris qualifier granted 5 packages and the number of participants was 51. I think we can agree you are going for the package not for the reroll so your 1 from 6 proportion doesn't seem good so the 38% chance also shouldn't be correct.

I accept you are playing the €50's for fun to spice up dinner and co. and would play them as neverending story if Unibet wouldn't make changes in the qualifying system but i wonder why you judged people in your previous posts who want to make money from it asap and planning their bankroll builder mission making come true via other route. On the other hand your stragety also makes me a question how could you increase your real bankroll, not your virtual one (the value of tickets). It seems the current system is the dead end for your environment, because you have lost all your €50 tickets (as you previously mentioned you have only €10 and €250, the second one isn't convertable), so I counted what benefits you have earned from the play (I don't know why you refuse using the word grind when you play regularly on the same level, but it's your choice). Lets assume you played 50*the €50 ticket+ you have or had 4*250, what grants you 35K challenge points. That's €15+€5,xx (aka 1100 BP)+€2(€6cash ticket)+possible wins from tickets. So you could earn €22-€23 when you run bad and will lost all of your added tickets. I was generous and presumed you have accumulated the points in one quarter. So you raked €350- to make a round off to €25- for less than 10% rakeback.

I don't see the big deal behind those numbers comparing to nano grinders in where you can also win €25 within 3  months period and your bankroll is still flexible to jump into other promotions than poker.

Merenitsu posted a chart before you posted today. It's worth checking it. He had €700 in tickets and converted to €1.40 real money.

 

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"Unfortunately there are too many things in this thread what I can't accept. About your chance to Live event: the last Paris qualifier granted 5 packages and the number of participants was 51. I think we can agree you are going for the package not for the reroll so your 1 from 6 proportion doesn't seem good so the 38% chance also shouldn't be correct."

A UO250 ticket has a value of 225 Euro +25 Euro in rake. The live package is valued at 2000 Euro. 225/2000= 11,25 %. That's your statistical chance of making it in one game (assuming no overlay, no advantages and so on). You're not making it with a 88,75 % chance. Your chance of playing 4 times and missing in each of the 4 games: 0,8875^4 (0,8875*0,8875*0,8875*0,8875): 62,04 %. Your chance of playing 4 times and make it at least once: 1-0,6204= 37,96 %. You're welcome.

"because you have lost all your €50 tickets"

I have not lost them. :laugh: The last batch, I played them and converted them into the UO250s, a bunch of UO10s and one cash bubble finish. How do you think I reached that amount in the first place? :laugh:

"why you refuse using the word grind"

OK, I "grinded" the one UO50 that's running daily for an hour or so once in a while, while eating dinner at the same time or sitting outside. Still feeling burnt out over it...

"question how could you increase your real bankroll"

Why? I'm profitable playing the SNGs, the bankroll grows automatically. The UOs were just an added bonus.

Again, I think you're not understanding how the change in exchange terms threw off the plans of the guys that had accumulated UO250 tickets. Anybody else, could bascially keep on grinding like before, however since my UO bankroll was "locked up" in UO250s instead of UO50s, I (and many other players) are/were forced to liquidate it. I'm sure if I played these UO1s and UO2s seriously, I could build up a roll again, moving on to the UO10s and accumulating from there. But why would I?

 

[psrquack]

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@WuDu wrote:

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---

 

A UO250 ticket has a value of 225 Euro +25 Euro in rake. The live package is valued at 2000 Euro. 225/2000= 11,25 %. That's your statistical chance of making it in one game (assuming no overlay, no advantages and so on). You're not making it with a 88,75 % chance. Your chance of playing 4 times and missing in each of the 4 games: 0,8875^4 (0,8875*0,8875*0,8875*0,8875): 62,04 %. Your chance of playing 4 times and make it at least once: 1-0,6204= 37,96 %. You're welcome

 

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Thanks.

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Sorry, but other methods are out of this conversation. I'm focusing to the incomes which come from the UO tickets  before and after you were foced to liquidate it because that's what I can compare to the micro MTT grinders incomes (if you need numbers check pinki's blog). Because the minimum €25 wasn't debatted I assume you gained no more than €50 in total before and from the windup. That could change if you won a seat. Well, not much for a daily play.

[WuDu]

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@psrquack wrote:

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@WuDu wrote:

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---

 

A UO250 ticket has a value of 225 Euro +25 Euro in rake. The live package is valued at 2000 Euro. 225/2000= 11,25 %. That's your statistical chance of making it in one game (assuming no overlay, no advantages and so on). You're not making it with a 88,75 % chance. Your chance of playing 4 times and missing in each of the 4 games: 0,8875^4 (0,8875*0,8875*0,8875*0,8875): 62,04 %. Your chance of playing 4 times and make it at least once: 1-0,6204= 37,96 %. You're welcome

 

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Thanks.

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Sorry, but other methods are out of this conversation. I'm focusing to the incomes which come from the UO tickets  before and after you were foced to liquidate it because that's what I can compare to the micro MTT grinders incomes (if you need numbers check pinki's blog). Because the minimum €25 wasn't debatted I assume you gained no more than €50 in total before and from the windup. That could change if you won a seat. Well, not much for a daily play.

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:laugh: I think my last cash prize alone during the UO50s was 35 or 40 Euros. Like I said, if you play them for a few years, you'll end up on the cash bubble a few times. And doing so at the UO10s pays a little bit more than 1,20 Euro. At the UO50s or UO250s, the numbers go up accordingly, in case there's a spot being paid out in cash.

So yeah, it was a little more than 50 Euro in total...

[Livertool]

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@WuDu wrote:

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:laugh: I think my last cash prize alone during the UO50s was 35 or 40 Euros. Like I said, if you play them for a few years, you'll end up on the cash bubble a few times.

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But if you cash out 1.2€ everyday for few years, it is over 1000 😏

[Merenitsu]

@WuDu  @psrquack  @GR1ZZL3R 

it all reminds me of one example from life. I have a toothache, but no money. Some say go to a free clinic to be cured quickly, but it can be of poor quality. Others say to be patient, wait until the money appears and go to a paid clinic and cure it qualitatively. Once. when I had a toothache I went to a free clinic and I just got a seal, but I got rid of the pain. Another time, when I had a toothache, I waited and went to a paid clinic. As a result, they told me there that the tooth should be pulled out.
Moral: due to the fact that I was waiting for the best result, I experienced suffering due to pain, discomfort, lost my money and tooth.

think obout it 😃

[WuDu]

 

Big_D_Allahu called the preflop all-in first hand on the cash bubble. Wanna guess how much was in it for him?

#LOLpoorpeople :Waterfall: :Laugh:

[Merenitsu]

@WuDu  @psrquack :laugh:🤣

[psrquack]

Did you win the cash?