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Manchester or Bust V 2.0


GR1ZZL3R

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It's been a couple of weeks since my last update and the end of the quarter, so time for a comprehensive menu review.

Hors d'oevres.

Cash Poker.

Since my last battles on the cash tables, which haven't gone particularly well,  I've been playing a very slow, very steady brand of poker on the 5-10c tables. After yo-yoing up and down for what seens forever, I decided to take a much more serious approach. After rereading a couple of books, a few articles and watching some specific videos, some of it is beginning to sink in, and instead of just firing up a couple of tables and rushing headlong into disaster, I'm taking a much more methodical approach. Much is written and talked about the mental side of poker, and I've come to realise that it really is important, so unless I'm 100% ready to play I simply don't. If I'm tired, hungry, annoyed or just not in the mood I don't play. If I want to watch the football or a film, I don't play. If I've had a couple of drinks, I don't play. If I feel a touch of tilt coming on, I stop playing. I don't play a lot. 🤣 One table at a time so far, and complete concentration. Positional awareness, stack sizes, players tendencies, pot odds etc, etc, etc, all concepts we should be familiar with but do we really put them into practice. I'm certainly guilty of not doing so enough.

From a very small sample size last week, I played 6 1/2 hours, 761 hands and made €48.81 profit, 64 bb/100. World beating figures, but for how long? I'm not getting overexcited yet. :wow:

Main Course.

Satellites.

These are currently the main staple of my poker diet at the moment, but again it's motivation that seems to be the problem. I really do want to experience a live event again, the UK tour in Manchester being the main target, but life keeps getting in the way. I start each day with renewed optimism, then one of two things happens. I either lose the first couple of the day, with bad beats or poor play, or win 2 of the first 3-4, and in both cases decide that's enough. I'm so busy protecting my stack in the game it's spilling over into protecting my stack of tickets. I just can't bear to see it go down, so am becoming over protective. The UK nightly final is at the wrong time for me, I much prefer playing during the day and leaving my evenings for other things to see and do, so I don't play enough of them. However with the evenings getting darker and colder weather coming along I hope to find more time to spend on Push/Fold charts, Fold/Fold charts, Folding for Beginners charts, Folding as a Practical and Profitable Hobby charts, and a couple of Origami books.

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I don't think I'm doing too badly as a part timer, but I really must start using these tickets more. Only four weekends left before Manchester, probably not enough, and I'm not really sure I can play them all anyway. It's starting to sound like an excuse, setting myself up for failure so I'm not disappointed if I don't make it. That really isn't the case, but if it doesn't happen then there could be a long hard Winter of Mindfulness and Self Awareness videos to look forward to. 

Deserts.

Or how I messed up BIGTIME on the betting front.

To follow.

 

Run Good All. :Thumbsup:

 

 

 

 

 

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BITTER/SWEET

Have you ever made a bet, and then watched the event half hoping the result you predicted doesn't happen? I've missed some good bets in my time, even one or two great bets, but this weekend saw my ultimate agony as result after result clocked in and I could only watch in despair.

Since the start of this seasons Premier League I've been monitoring results with a view to making a few bets, and the Supertoto has proved very entertaining as a backup ( one freebet and joint 2nd this week 👍) Six matches into the season and a small sample of statistics to start with so time for action.

My philosophy is that the price has to be right, and I do tend to spend time juggling with the figures and trying to spot trends or patterns, not always successfully, so this season I'm looking for the draws. Saturday, Sunday and Monday provided ten matches and what I considered three opportunities, but I wanted to test all ten in action with small stakes just to see what happened, with my base unit on the main selections being £1 to start.

Match #1.

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A good start

Match #2-7.

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The main contenders, both draws selected coming up.

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Seven out of seven in total and the two main selections both correct. A great start but a slightly niggling worry starting in the back of my mind, what about multiples. I've never been a great fan of doubles and trebles etc ( except in the pub and while playing darts ) preferring to let each bet stand or fall on it's own merit, so wasn't really too concerned, and there was now the City match to watch with a pizza and a drink. To be honest I hadn't even looked at a multiple, they are just not part of my strategy, but there's always part of you thinking "What if?"

Match #8.

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City win and it's eight out of eight. Time for another drink and yet again missing the €50 UK weekly final. :Teardrop:  That's life.

Sunday morning and time to do a recap. Leicester at home to Newcastle, straightforward home pick, let's look at the potential I may have missed.

Eight out of eight and the accumulator is running at 178.76, quite a significant figure, but no way I'd hit ten out of ten is there? :Wonder:

Match #9.

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Another win and now I'm starting to stress, the running total would have been 278.86 but I can't do anything about it so why worry? I'm sure if the bet had been live I would have been stressing far more, wouldn't I.

Monday morning and I see I've got 2nd place in the Supertoto, so a welcome boost for the br, 👍 and time to check tonight's match odds. No thinking or wondering or hoping what's going to happen, the odds dictate the bet. 

In answer to the question at the top, I had the match on in the background and wanted my bet to win, it would be another small step to finding to finding the way to go, and if ten out of ten came up, well what better start could you have?

Match #10. 

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Yes, another winning bet, three out of three for the system, a great start to my new life of fame and fortune! :Wow:

I had already done the calculation of course, a straight accumulator on all ten would have paid 975/1, but as my Mum used to say, "What you never have you never miss." 

I ended up winning £7.55 on the three draws, which actually would have paid 42.43/1 for the treble, and a few pence on the other, let's be honest, fairly predictable results. 

I'll try again this weekend, but will I do an accumulator? How long will it be before another ten predictable matches line up? Who knows, time will tell?

Happy Punting All. 👍

 

 

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A quick update. I've used all the €1 UK so it's the nightly  €5 UK from now on, unless I fall really low on those, and a few more UO during the day to compensate. I'm breaking the UO €4 to €1 and playing the 2-3 daily UO €1-€10 so I can do the same with those and stick to the 2-10-50-250-final path.

I played my final two UK €1 this morning, a ticket won with both but two very different paths. The first was nice and straightforward, KK early on giving a double then picking off a couple of small stacks, holding both times to leave me high up and no real worries. The second however was all about how much patience you need in these types of satties.

I chased a gut shot straight, including the straight flush, with 2nd pair and 4 to the flush, against a large pair that only called my preflop raise.

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This left me at the bottom of the pile with 12 players still left in. How many times do you see players then going into maniac mode when this happens? trying to get their stack back up or crash out. Not my style.

Still 10 left and stone cold last.

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The final table kicked straight into 8 players and I'm still last. everyone else had at least double my stack, when I'd shoved 2-3 times and not been looked up.

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A few back and forths happened, each small stack managing to survive when all in.

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And finally!

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Patience sometimes pays of, with a bit of luck and run good. :Smile:

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A weekend of UO satties and the UK €50 planned, but not set in stone.

Run Good. :Thumbsup:

 

 

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"IT'S NOW OR NEVER"

The planned weekend of sattie play did not come to pass and it's now only three weekends from Manchester. There are 20 nightly UK €5 tourneys left and three weekly UK €50, so it's flat out to the line instead of sitting around and admiring my stack of tickets. As I've said before they are basically of no value at all unless used and converted to something useful, so it's time to do something about it. I have 42 x €5, enough for 2 tickets in each €5 sattie, and 1 x €50, so here goes.

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The last quarter ended with the br up €40 and bonus points worth about €62, culled from various promos :Thumbsup: and with the new Paris spins promo it's time to go for the cash tables again in a more serious effort.

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A €30 cash ticket needs 900 flops to be converted, and needing 30 flops a spin or 90 per day for 3 spins seems to be lined up the way I like things. I'm not saying 10 days is the target, with my record on cash tickets It could be ended in one session :Teardrop: but it's a starter to see what happens.

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That's it, now I'm commited (or should be :Rofl: )

Time to hit the tables, run good all. :Thumbsup:

 

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Three Saturday night UK €50 left before Manchester and things just might be coming together.

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A very poor effort on Monday was followed by two tough ones last night and tonight, both squeezed in through the back door with less than 8 bb's left. 

🤣

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I played the UK €50 final qualifier on Saturday night but no joy, 13th of 22 and never really in it. Only 2 shots left but I'm still in there with a chance.😃

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It's a struggle! As mentioned before, life gets in the way, and as City were playing live on Saturday night t.v. it was family time and not poker time, so no UK €50 final for me this week. :teardrop: (City won, Liverpool drew, 👍) One chance left on the 26th, with two tickets just in case, but I'm actually not feeling any pressure. Failure to get the ticket won't be a failure, it will just be a failed attempt on the road. Plans are already in place for the next stage of the mission, the Paris UO event and continuing on the satellite trail. A totally revamped schedule will swing into place should I falter, and probably a new blog, meanwhile I'm boosting my UK €1 tickets and concentrating on getting the spins in the cash promo, 1 x UO €25 and 1 X UO €10 tickets won in the weekly freeroll so far. 😃

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Run Good: 👍

 

 

 

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I played the last UK Manchester qualifier last night but after an hour and 15 mins I was down to 2,200 chips with a terrible run of cards, a few attempts to make something happen coming to grief. I was down to 16th of 16, so with one €50 ticket left I thought I might as well use it, and rebought another 3,000 chips. Back up to 7th with about 26 bb I had a tilty moment. I've just bought a new mouse after my last one died, (of natural causes, not being thrown around) and it's misbehaving. While moving it, the cursor sticks where it was then jumps to catch up. I got dealt KK, there was a bet to 3 bb and I moved the cursor to the 3/4 pot bet and clicked. The cursor had skidded again and had landed on the fold button. 😠 (If anyone knows why this happens and what to do about it I would be very grateful for some help.) A few minutes later there was a standard 3 bb raise, I had AQs so reraised and they went all in. I knew it was a fold as they had been only moderately active up till then, but called and saw the bad news, AA. Down to 4.3 bb I managed a double, K3s then immediately again with 99. Back up to 20 bb I thought I still had a shout but it was not to be, and I went out in 12th of 26.I'm not too disappointed as that's only two finals played in nearly 4 months of ticket building, so I know I have to play a lot more, and it's building the experience as I go. Good luck to all those playing next week. 

I've been breaking down the UO €4 to €1 and just playing in the ones and twos to try to build up the UO €10 tickets, but again I'm not playing very many so it's not likely I'll get to a Sunday night final anytime soon, and I've actually been in the UK 5c flips for UK €1 tickets. It's so much easier regging a few at a time rather than in a small time window every hour, which I used to keep forgetting about.Twenty six of those so far, an excellent source for anyone starting out and a great base for the next shot.  

I intend to play far more over the winter, far fewer distractions, but there is the UOS starting and I'm concentrating on my new cash game strategies, so far going very well, touch wood, and the football betting research. This is quite time intensive as I'm playing around with allsorts of figures, but it's showing profit so far and I'm optimistic it could be a long term winner. Four from six so far this weekend including two draws, where most of the profit comes from, and profit already with four to play. 

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Good Luck everyone in their own challenges, projects, grinds or fun.:Thumbsup::Cash::Smile:

 

 

 

 

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Hi @psrquack Thanks but I'm not really sad, I'm positive it will come if I give it a concentrated go. Paris is the next UO stop but unlikely as it stands for me and as for the UK next year, who knows when we'll find out? :teardrop: I'm just going to keep building tickets to saturation point, then I'll have to play finals instead of messing about. 😃

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  • 4 weeks later...

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The stash of satellite tickets continues to grow, but so far has not really been with any great amount of work put in, a series of random hit and miss attempts with no real sense of purpose behind it, apart from the vague notion of wanting to play another live event after my (unsuccessful though enjoyable) trip to Dublin last year. With this in mind I decided to formulate a serious and concerted attempt to make a live tourney, anytime, anyplace, anywhere.

Even with a reasonable number of tickets I decided to grow the stash as cheaply as possible, starting with the 0.05c UK flips. There are 8 of these a day, and with reg being open much longer they are far easier to enter, as previously with only a 10 or 15 minute window I used to miss quite a few. Sixty days of these, eight per day, 480 entered, (give or take the odd few I've missed, I'll playthem another couple of days to catch up) stands at a cost of €24.

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85 tickets won, a reasonable return of better than one in six, at a cost of about 0.28c each, and a good base to start (or continue.)

The first of the UO tickets doesn't expire till February, so the plan is to leave them for a while and stick to the UK Tour, playing 5 X €1 a day or until a win during December, and the €5 as required by date, then do an assessment for the new year. Once the daily target is reached it's back to the cash promo until the daily flips target is met, (or, the way I'm running right now, I lose all my money.)

With all the current promos,

Supertoto, :Teardrop:

NFL, :Teardrop:

Hot Streak betting :Teardrop:

and now the Advent calendars, :Wonder:

plus the Community League, :Wonder:

so it's going to be a busy month ahead, plenty to keep me amused and occupied. 

I don't need to tell you to run good, you can't be doing much worse than me in all these promos, but I'll say it anyay!

Run Good. :Thumbsup:

 

 

 

 

 

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I'm definitely not happy.

The UK €1 now only have two tickets provided as a starting point, down from the days when there were 6, 5 then four, all the overlay gone.  Now these satties are playing extremely loose, even compared to the UO, multiple all ins even on the first level. With 15 players there are still only two tickets, a less than 1 in 7 chance of a victory, compared with a previous better than 1 in 4 chance with 4 tickets. All ins are regularly being called with any two, a preflop raise is getting 4 or 5 callers with totally random hands, and having played the first 5 today (and seeing ridiculous run outs)  I'm left wondering what on earth I've let myself in for, and is it even worth carrying on at this level. This might be sour grapes from being absolutely crushed, but from what I've seen so far it looks like their nature has completely turned around from somewhat steadier  play than the UOs to worse than the freerolls.

Oh well, I'm commited now and

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@pinki I will try them again tomorrow but I feel as if the whole structure of them has changed by such a small move as reducing the number of starting tickets. I think the UK tour or other national tours are very much secondary to the main UO tour, and as yet there is no news of the supposed re-structuring, so we'll just have to wait and see. 

#Stillnothappy. :teardrop:

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