MPROX SIT N GO CHALLENGE

[Petit_pertotal]

had some time today so played a bit this afternoon

10 games

win: 8

losses: 2

global roi 35,80%  (30 games = almost no sample)

[Dennis_]

The OP-Poker HU course is excellent and up to date. The grinderschool thing though...I don´t know. Watched the first video and the stuff is at least outdated, if it was ever good at all. If I were you I would take it with a grain of salt or just avoid it in the first place.

[Petit_pertotal]

Hey dennis

haven't watched them yet :)

but i do have the op-poker spin and go course and nick told me earlier today that the charts + startegies are perfect for headsup hypers and still good (ofc lategame) for headsup turbo's aswell.

[Dennis_]

As I said, OP-Poker is just fine. Just the other thing seems a little fishy

[Petit_pertotal]

completed first 50 games..
But again after playing them i don't feel like grinding them full time .. (i really need to start making some decisions what to start grinding..)
5m sng, 2m sng, mtt, sattelites..  (no cash games)

results are great tho after playing them but still if it's boring for you it keeps you stay away from the tables..

1st: 35/50
2nd: 15/50
ROI: 35,80%
+ €17,90 

[Petit_pertotal]

quick reminder, if you don't know what to play and lf a new challenge but trying some things out like me...

hexa's are never a good idea, unless you like variance :)

1st: 35/100
2nd 51/100
3rd 14/100

[Brocky]

Wins 35% of 3 player game, loses 12 buy ins. Stupid format!

[Brocky]

I won 4 out of 5 Hexas today and profited 1bi as they were all 1.5x.  After your 35% win ratio and losing 12bi it made me wonder what our WR needs to be in these games to be profitable so I did a quick calculation:

Pretty crazy to think that 36% is effectively break-even with a shed load of variance to go with it.  Anything less than 37% WR would make these completely unattractive to grind and how many players are going to be winning at 37-38%+ at the 10s/25s+?  

[MadAdo]

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@Brocky wrote:

... made me wonder what our WR needs to be in these games to be profitable so I did a quick calculation:

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@Brockywell, table looks nice. But what about 'guy' like me with WR 15-20% ? What is my ROI (-40% or just close to -60%) :scared:

[Brocky]

---

@MadAdo wrote:

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@Brocky wrote:

... made me wonder what our WR needs to be in these games to be profitable so I did a quick calculation:

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@Brockywell, table looks nice. But what about 'guy' like me with WR 15-20% ? What is my ROI (-40% or just close to -60%) :scared:

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My advice to you is to win the jackpot in the first 10 games then never play again 🤣

[Petit_pertotal]

ye the variance is crazy .. 

but it's stupid in a way that unibet and all the other platform try to boost hexas or spins so much..

almost all the casino gamblers are directed to play this when they try to play some poker..

tbh even the variance is crazy and you need to be a mental rock to keep on playing your a game during swings and sessions, the momentum is going to those games.

 

i haven't been playing the last days because i really am trying to decide what i should do because i might try a hexa grind but many things hold me back..
First i will sum up all the pro's and contra's i could think about and in the second part of this blog post i will give some examples what i expect..

hexa:

pro:

• the momentum is going away from sng's to this type of sngs.
• more promo's.
• more scalable on higher stakes, more players mid stakes.
• when you put in high volume on low/mid stakes you get good rakeback.
• more volume = bigger players pool.
• more casino gamblers that want to play this game.

contra:

• massive variance, +1k games swings.
• the skill edge is smaller.
• ~3% more rake per game compared to 5man sng.
• you need to be mentally in shape to handle those games.

 

sng

pro:

• one of the best ways for a steady bankroll building.
• less chance on big up or down swings.
• you can build a bigger edge compared to other players.
• less rake.
• mentally better to keep playing your a game during the session.

contra:

• almost no rakeback.
• challenges instead of challenge points per entry.
• momentum is going down for sng player pool.
• almost no and no mid / high stakes action.
• less promo's except some king of flips, santa, wheel of fortune
• can be boring after a while (i had problems keeping my motivation around +-500 games at my 1k grind)

 

second part of the post..
i have tried to make a calculation to see what the results can be per stake per game..
and my conclussion is that if you play hexa's you need to do it for the rakeback, but only low or mid stakes (at micro it's still almost no rakeback)
in this test i made some charts where you have 3,5% Roi:

the above line is roi 3,5% ALSO THIS LINE IS NOT STRAIGHT IN REAL GAMES and it will be more a downsing and then a big win and downsing or breakeven again followed by another big upswing game, ... , it's to show the rakeback compared to 3,5% roi.
€1 hexa

€2 hexa

€5 hexapro

€10

 

€25 --> after the same volume of games your rakeback is higher then 3,5% roi.

i know it's almost surealistic to play 20k hexas at 25 buyin, but it's just to show that when you would go play hexas and skale the volume and stake up the grind is not for the lottery anymore but for the rakeback you get. ofc by the time you did grind your way up to this stake you have no emotions anymore i think ...... ^^

 

 

when i do the same rakeback calculation for sng's it's almost no rakeback, which is normal because you pay less rake, play less volume in sngs, you get your winnings not from rake but from real roi % on the tables.

 

3rd section
a estimation what the max you can grind in 3 months is in my opinion 

sngs 

* did not calculate 25eu sng's because in my opinion you can't play 5k games €25 5max on the site because of player pool ammount.

 

 

 

conclusion

after doing the pro's and con's + estimating every graph ( i also did possible outcomes in my graphs to see best case, worst case,.. which i didn't mention with graphs or numbers in the text above..) i still haven't decided if i am going to keep on being an 5max sng grinder or will transition into hexas..
Also their are still headsup sngs which are scalable and are also an option..,  i know some really good courses that i have acces to if i want thx to a mate.. for all the 3 options that i would choose to specialize in.. (such as bestpokercoaching spin & go course but also raise your edge sng course & another one & upswing poker advacned heads-up mastery, .. (that same mate is telling me to do sngs btw but he plays on a competitors website, not on uni..)

[Dennis_]

I would advise against Hexapros. First of all, if you took jackpots into account for your 3,5% ROI then 25k games is just a fraction of the needed samplesize. Even if not the extra layer of variance is just insane. The extra rake doesn´t make it any better either. 

The low traffic on the regular SNGs is reason for concern though as well. I myself am probably looking to mix up HU and 5Max on the 25€s. 

In any case it´s not a gloomy situation at the moment

[Petit_pertotal]

btw @Brocky  how did you calculate the itm% and required roi%?

in a course i have they talk about the rake and need itm% like this (unibet is 6,853% rake)

 

also the way to calculate your correct roi% so not based on the lottery of the hexas should be like this (based on the course)

 

when i do this on my own current stats my roi is -1,39% on the long run right now, playing just abc without a correct strategy.

[Dennis_]

So that formula does take into account winning the jackpot every once in a blue moon. With a probability of 1 in 100.000 you don´t have enough lifetime left to ever grind out a sufficient sample. I guess you could still be a winning player without ever winning the jackpot but I doubt it´s gonna be fun

[Brocky]

I just did 0.93847 (returns after rake) x 3 * WR%

 

If you put in 0.36 for 36% WR it gives 0.6% ROI for example.

[Petit_pertotal]

I MADE A DECISION..

ok after a month trying to decide to keep on grinding or do something else i made my decision..

against all recommendations i have decided to not specialize any further in sitngo's for the moment( so no icm trainins, .. anymore when i am studying off the tables for now).

the game plan will be like this:

for this month february i am going to keep holding of all my stats (win%, roi%, adjusted roi (formulla above post), how many lotterys of each i have had on my sample and what placed i ended up on every prize ). even i will be holding all those stats, this month will be a learning month for sure and i am not going to give much attention to my results this month as i see it as a learning month.. with other words i don't mind if i blow a few hunder buyins in worst case but i will quit the challenge by march in case that would happen.

when i was playing the hexas i saw people do soo crazy stuff that in my opinion you can beat the rake if you specialize in it.. (i mean.. when you see people shuving air on all board textures etc.. it's just a wild west with high rake, high variance, fast blind levels but beatable opponents.. 

i will update all my stats etc during my studying month on this blog post but please don't take them to serious because in my opnion the hexa grind will start in March after i had a few weeks of learning the pre flop chars, doing hand reviews from recordings i will make of myself, watching some spin pros on twitch + and some other learning stuff..)

 

variance

Just a side note about variance, when you do calculations pre-rakeback etc.. based on ITM% this is the chart to see the probabbility of a downsing based on sample size 5k games: **this screenshot is based on spins with 6% rake, we have 6,8% rake so our IT% needs to be higher, for example 35% ITM will be -ev for hexas)

and doing 1000 simmulations of 500 games gives this output in swongsim (did base myself on spin and gos with 7% rake as this is the closest to hexas i think
** everything between the 2 yellow lines will occur 10-90% of the time**

** everything between the 2 orange lines will occur 30-70% of the time**

35% ITM (losing)

 

36% ITM (even with 36% ITM 30-70% of the time you will end up osing after 500 games)

 

37% ITM

 

38% ITM

 

Bankroll

i will follow a dynamic bankroll management if i start this challenge in March based on itm% & buyin # of higher stake, more info next month.

 

 

 

CURRENT STATS, PRE STUDY:
total results vs expected results based on ITM% (rake already included)

1st places 35,25% of the time
Hexa games analysis ( a perfect normal price pool money for this sample, +13 cent above expected! :D xd)

position analysis

€1,50 HEXAS (62 games)
1st place: 26/62  -- 41,93%
2nd place: 25/62 --  40,32%
3rd place: 11/62 -- 17,74%

€3 HEXAS (40 games)
1st place: 13/40  -- 32,50%
2nd place: 22/40 --  55,00%
3rd place: 5/40 -- 12,50%

€5 HEXAS  (15 games)
1st place: 3/15  -- 20%
2nd place: 9/15 --  60%
3rd place: 3/15 -- 20%

€10 HEXAS 
1st place: 1/5  -- 20%
2nd place: 2/5 --  40%
3rd place: 2/5 -- 40%

based on this sample my €5 & €10 HEXAS haven't been going good at all but ofc very low sample size.

 

will do a new detailed update around 500 or 1k.

[Petit_pertotal]

@Stubbe-Unibet 

could you please correct me if i am wrong about the hexas?

6,853% rake is on the website of unibet ( https://nl.unibet.be/promotions/poker-promotions/hexapro )

this is the sample you get online (100k)

when you multiply this to 100k effective games based on the exact chances on the table from the official site you get this result

expected price pool money = € 276941,00 
but when you calculate the rake €300 000 buyin - €276 941 = €23059 rake for 3 handed game 
so €23059 /3 = 7686,333 rake per person after 100k games
when you calculate this per game  7686.33/100 000= 7,68633% rake per game per player instead of 6,853% rake what is on the website?

 

The reason why I amsking is because this has a Enormous  big impact on the itm% required to grind the stakes profitable on the long run. 

[Brocky]

Your calcs must be wrong as I got 279,441.

[Dennis_]

God I just love dutch. It´s almost like A brit trying to speak German and failing miserably :)

[Petit_pertotal]

Thx brocky

Indeed I think their is an error as I see not the correct numbers on the high payouts.

I'm check it when I am home :p

 

And what a German trying to speak English

[Petit_pertotal]

@Stubbe-Unibet  no need to watch my post :-) their was an error in the excel.. it's indeed 6853 rake per person per 100k games = 6,853% :)

[Petit_pertotal]

damn :p i really have under estimated the mood variance can give to you ^^

ive been studying vs playing on a ratio of 75% v 25%

but the last 20 games where brutal always ended up vs the few outs that could come and it changed my mood completely right now :p

[Dennis_]

Hod did you get that adjusted ROI? And how do you get the graph in the first place?

[Petit_pertotal]

hey @Dennis_ 

the adjusted roi is a formula they told in that course i got from a friend (  https://www.husng.com/content/beating-spin-and-go-poker )

the formula is this:

 

and my first places are just counted in excel (based on that number the excel automatic does count first placed / all games played = itm%

the red line is the formula running every game i entry in the excel

 

 

[Petit_pertotal]

Don't know if it is me or the variance ..

tbh the hexas are a reeaaaal flip fest...

but i am following the exact charts given on the course + try to play my a game (even shallow.. :p ) but i felt like i could win a few flips but all the crucial ones i lost :p 

we will see how the study period continues..

one thing for sure i didn't care about going down 10 buyins like i did before .. already getting used to it.. :p

 

if my adjusted roi calculation is right i am right now 30,5 buyins -ev but yhe based on that formula .. not based on allin ev and some other things like spin pro's recommend to watch..

also what is super sad i can't do decent analysis because i can't export my HH .. :( 

might go to starts in my study period so i can do some hand imports to analyse..

 

 

ah also.. forogt to mention i have made a wallpaper of the preflop charts that you need to follow in xx situations (btw in case this is not allowed by unibet please tell me..)