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Dennis_

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25€ 5 Max ROI after 765 games: -1,7%

25€ HU ROI after 697 games: -1,7%

 

I wish I had filmed today´s session. It started like any other session. Whatever I did I always found myself on the losing side. And then I lost pretty much every flip for the last half hour. It seemed unreal.

If I ever get the exact opposite of this I will break many bankrolls but for now nothing ever seems to work.

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nonsense.thumb.png.06757e401e1ae19510f79637a650ce28.png

this is a simulation of both of my formats combined, assumind a true ROI of as little as 3% each. As can be seen, these results are almost the exact bottom end of the 95% confidence interval. 

What I am trying to say is that it is getting more and more likely that I am in fact not good enough for 25s rather than just getting unlucky.

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What are you using as a simulator? I have started believeing more and more that the variance in Unibets HU SnG are severely underestimated by some of these online tournament variance calculators, because they do not take into account strating stacks and blind levels, which make a huge difference if you think about it.

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"Starting stacks and Blind levels don't influence the variance if you use your estimated ROI for the calculation. "

I'm not sure why this would be the case? To quote Wikipedia: "Informally, variance measures how far a set of (random) numbers are spread out from their average value." As far as I have understood it, your ROI has nothing to do with the variance, because the variance is a measure of how far your results are spread from your (real) ROI. So variance is a property of the gametype and can't be calculated from your ROI (but the amount that you are likely going to win or lose can be calculated from ROI and variance figures).

I think what primedope is doing is that it uses some variance number that it thinks a "normal" tournament on some site would have. But it can't differentiate between Hypers, Turbos and deepstack tournaments in terms of variance (and these gametypes do have different amounts of variance).

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I don´t quite understand what you are saying. If we have an expected ROI of X it doesn´t matter how we got there. Whether we are playing hypers or deepstacks is irrelevant. And variance is simply how much we can differ from this within any given probability. Where do other factors like stacksizes hop in?

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What I mean is, without knowing the gametype that is being played (including blind levels and stack sizes), it is completely impossible for any calculator to accurately calculate variance. It is the same difference as trying to calculate the variance for pot limit omaha cash games with a standard deviation that you use for calculating variance of texas holdem cash games.

Or maybe I am wrong somehow but in that case I don't understand what I am missing :)

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I think what you are missing is that the way we get to a certain winrate doesn´t matter. Basically you are saying "A hyper turbo HUSNG player with a 3% ROI will face more variance than a reg speed HUSNG player with a 3% ROI."

There are only two results. Win or lose. Everything that happens before the end of a HUSNG is irrelevant. 

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25€ 5 Max ROI after 810 games: -2,1%

25€ HU ROI after 738 games: -1,4%

 

Nothing new. Whenever there was a possibility to lose Unibet found a way to make it work. On the 25€ level at least. 

I might not have gotten my fair share of won flips today but I did win them in the more important games. There were about half a dozen or so 50€s and one 100€ today and the play was atrocious. Let me give you an example:

1337220154_Screenshot(754).thumb.png.55122530330088d29550afce46a466cf.png

 

Nothing more has to be said. With only one exception I managed to cash in every single 50€+ SNG, rounding the day up for a nice profit.

I am not too upset about my 25€ failure (at least for today) as the loss is really very small for what I had to take

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@Dennis_ wrote:

25€ 5 Max ROI after 810 games: -2,1%

25€ HU ROI after 738 games: -1,4%

 

Nothing new. Whenever there was a possibility to lose Unibet found a way to make it work. On the 25€ level at least. 

I might not have gotten my fair share of won flips today but I did win them in the more important games. There were about half a dozen or so 50€s and one 100€ today and the play was atrocious. Let me give you an example:

113612107_Screenshot(754).thumb.png.4e81718905c95eb76e00a109ff3dc0fd.png

 

Nothing more has to be said. With only one exception I managed to cash in every single 50€+ SNG, rounding the day up for a nice profit.

I am not too upset about my 25€ failure (at least for today) as the loss is really very small for what I had to take


Soo.. you called that?

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25€ 5 Max ROI after 876 games: -2,8%

25€ HU ROI after 777 games: -0,9%

 

Every day I tell myself "there is no specific reason why this downswing should continue today" but then it does very much just that. Every Allin feels like KK vs AA. The RNG is truly screwing me over. 

But then I am not the kind of person who blaims variance for everything. I have long accepted that my true ROI won´t be anywhere near what the top players might reach,  as my results would be just so unlikely for, say a 5% ROI.

Why am I not moving down to 10s? I have serously thought about that but there are several reasons for why I don´t want to. First of all the level at the 25s is still rather disgusting. Secondly my results at 10s indicated that I would still be winning at 25s. Thirdly, and probably most importantly, I am not depending on any income for the rest of the year due to the fact that I had almost no living expenses during my two years in the army. 

 

I have thought about streaming, just to show the world how badly I am getting run over, but I hate the idea of being watched be several people. But if any of you want to see me getting destroyed on a 1 to 1 skype call feel free to PM me.

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25€ 5 Max ROI after 944 games: -2,7%

25€ HU ROI after 828 games: -1,4%

 

I ran almost normal for about an hour. But then I started losing again. Nothing one can do when every Flip is basically a loss already, I guess.

It is getting less and less likely that I am winning at 25s.

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25€ 5 Max ROI after 1010 games: -2,8%

25€ HU ROI after 887 games: -0,9%

 

I really thought my 5 Max ROI would go up a bit ingame but it didn´t. I didn´t seem to flip quite as bad as usual but still bad overall. I had about 10 to 15 pair < pair and only cracked once. I can´t recall ever having the better pair. This kept happening frequently as well:

2018885873_Screenshot(769).thumb.png.0e32d196ff4afbd3698ab2b84a9296e0.png

 

When will this stop?

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25€ 5 Max ROI after 1117 games: -2,1%

 

There were enough players in the 5 Max lobby to constantly fill up 11 tables so I decided to omit headsup today. I played 5,5 hours, my longest session so far, and accumulated 10,000 challenge points.

Things were running bad as always. I had a few streaks of actually winning about as many hands as I am supposed to but then there always followed a lenghty session of having everything cracked. There is one reg in particular who wins (almost) every flip no matter what. It´s just impossible to get anywhere when you have someone like him at the tables.

112609230_Screenshot(783).png.8459388a85b062b8885c5160e86cada4.png

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Hopefully you can turn the downswing around! If folding AK is correct there I'm happy I don't play much of the formats that involve ICM :laugh:

It's probably not the same for the 50€ level, but at the lower stakes you regularly see players that would open jam T6 suited or A3 offsuit deepstacked because why not I guess (at least if the 4€ HU SnG are anything to go by).

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25€ 5 Max ROI after 1170 games: -0,8%

 

Like yesterday there was sufficient 5 Max action to go without Headsup. I felt like I was getting run over once again but got pleasantly surprised that I managed to cut the loss by quite a bit.

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25€ 5 Max ROI after 1245 games: -0,3%

 

I started the session with some Headsup while the 5 Max tables were filling up. I lost the first three games. Feels great.

Anyway it soon turned over and I actually won some flips. It didn´t last forever though. Towards the end it swiched over to "lose any" again until very shortly before the end of the session and running bad in the 100s ate up all the profits of the day, but I would still mark today as a success.

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25€ 5 Max ROI after 1306 games: -1,3%

25€ Headsup after 919 games: -2,1%

 

Just when you think the downswing might be coming to an end it turns around again and you lose every hand just as in old times. Lost about eight stacks to Aces, got the money in with aces much rarer myself and then this happens half the time: 1848983524_Screenshot(803).thumb.png.f69258d5e3109cd2490bd51dac371a73.png

Unibet gives me great hits when it is just no use:

1279104791_Screenshot(810).thumb.png.1e35f479c198a57b2b25793ba95ded41.png444332670_Screenshot(811).thumb.png.29016244688dfffbb90f87d4575ea4b8.png

Headsup didn´t even pretend to run well. I have TT? He has AA.

I have 99? He has 66. Guess what. He makes a straight.

 

And here you can see me bust the first 50€ vs the tabledonk:

1325405983_Screenshot(806).thumb.png.c2a1e66d1f929a982e08655f5de072bc.png

 

 

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25€ 5 Max ROI after 1370 games: -0,5%

 

Running a bit better today. I was rather unpleasantly surprised by the fact that my ROI hasn´t turned positive yet. It just felt like more but any win has to be good enough for now.

 

What are your thoughts on this hand?

Villain makes a small openraise and I defend the BB. He bets the flop and I call. He bets the turn and I call. He bets the river. I ?

What range do you put him on?

236108253_Screenshot(812).thumb.png.0eec4476110046906b217e1136563bc2.png

I know it´s subideal to not know the bet sizes but you all know how crappy the Unibet hand replayer is😉

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